tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2499771266402854669.post84876883777240423..comments2024-02-08T01:44:24.272-05:00Comments on ModeratePoli: Short: Who's selling out whom in the GOP?ModeratePolihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01721945380057992971noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2499771266402854669.post-1644438946439607992013-09-23T18:42:12.347-04:002013-09-23T18:42:12.347-04:00In my calculation, pretty much the same people wil...In my calculation, pretty much the same people will be put off by the GOP shutting down the government over Obamacare as will ultimately find Obamacare is a) not nearly as bad as the GOP painted it and b) there are some good things about it for them personally, even though they opposed it and might still do so in opinion polls.<br /><br />The GOP will not mind losing those voters who might eventually discover that the GOP should not have grandstanded on defunding Obamacare at all costs in the first place. It will be worth it to keep their base motivated and hating, hating, hating.<br /><br />But once they start losing support from people who won't see much from Obamacare or lose a lot from a government shutdown or default (e.g. GOP-leaning business interests), they'll fold and will hold that support despite what Ted Cruz and other firebrands want.<br /><br />I don't have the survey numbers to back it up. It's just a hunch based on years of observation.Dangerousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2499771266402854669.post-26582693904275945462013-09-23T18:09:14.607-04:002013-09-23T18:09:14.607-04:00@dangerous, what, in your opinion, constitutes &qu...@dangerous, what, in your opinion, constitutes "the GOP brand los[ing] a chunk of its value"?<br /><br />It's sad that any success in Obamacare is subject to zero-sum rules. If Obamacare is beneficial, the GOP loses. I think it was the same with Iraq, but not the same with some GOP economic policies like the Bush tax cuts.ModeratePolihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01721945380057992971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2499771266402854669.post-89824980026540387792013-09-23T17:24:14.893-04:002013-09-23T17:24:14.893-04:00Hi MP,
I'm following this closely and I think...Hi MP,<br /><br />I'm following this closely and I think a poker analogy is apt.<br /><br />Some in the GOP think they hold a winning hand and want to go all-in on defunding Obamacare and think that those who aren't so sure are either chicken or not committed to the cause.<br /><br />Others in the GOP want to go all-in on defunding Obamacare because they don't care if they have the winning hand or not as they aren't playing with their own money.<br /><br />Still others think that they may not have a winning hand on defunding Obamacare and that Obama will care their bluff for sure.<br /><br />Others think that if they go all-in Obama will be forced to fold even if he has winning cards.<br /><br />Of these factions, although they all want to win the hand in some way, none is strong enough to enforce their will on the others. The senior insiders know bluffing is a losing strategy because unless you're sure your opponent is weak and will fold, his weak hand may be better than your weak hand.<br /><br />Besides, Obama is practically all- in on Obamacare anyway, and you can't get someone to fold even a moderately strong hand with so much in the pot already. It's not like Obama is facing re-election.<br /><br />So Obama has a medium-strength hand -- something like a high two-pair. It's not strong because polling on Obamacare doesn't favor him. Hence, some in the GOP (e.g. Ted Cruz) think that if they act REALLY STRONG Obama will give in rather than see the country harmed with a shutdown or default. Unlike real poker (but like it's often portrayed on TV and the movies) Cruz & Company want to reach into their pockets and pull out a huge wad to add to the pot to make Obama do the same to call.<br /><br />This is not allowed in real poker -- where it's table stakes -- and the cautious GOPers know that once you change this rule in politics the risks get very high. Obama knows it, too.<br /><br />I don't think the GOP is ready to cross the line into obviously taking the entire country hostage, since their rhetoric on Obamacare is so divorced from reality and smart GOPers know it. But Cruz doesn't seem to mind putting the GOP brand into the pot because he's an outsider to them anyway.<br /><br />Cooler heads will prevail after the GOP brand loses a chunk of its value, but nobody will learn anything on that side. They are willing to lose exactly as much as they think they will from Obamacare being seen as a success.<br /><br />Dangerousnoreply@blogger.com