This question is a political football, but it shouldn't be since it's a question about fact and any answer will be based on scientific information.
As a layman, I'm not going to be able to contribute much to resolving this question. I'm not doing any of the first-hand research. I don't know what kind of equipment is involved in such research. I might be able to understand of the evidence and reasoning, but some of it might be outside the scope of my knowledge.
So if I decide on this question, it will be based on me reading what biology experts have to say, and they don't always agree.
Some here are three articles about the question of the origin of covid-19. Robert Redfield, former head of the CDC, opined that the virus escaped from the virology lab in Wuhan. However he said it was just his opinion. Their opinions are supposed to be based on scientist fact and extensive knowledge and experience. By not citing his reasons, Redfield reduces his opinion to the worth of a layman's opinion, which is nothing. That's a big cop-out for a scientist, and it isn't at all clear why he does that.
This article states that certain aspects of covid show that it wasn't engineered. I don't find it particularly clear or convincing. Something about the backbone and some change to a protein. There was some huge article in Nature or one of the premiere medical journals that was (I infer) categorical about a natural origin for covid.
Others aren't so sure. Some report that dissent on the origin has been quashed. Wait, that isn't supposed to happen in the sciences, but it probably does. Then there is a piece of cyberpunk happening with the melding of genetics scientists with computer researchers and hackers.
From what I've gleaned, there are three major theories about the origin of covid:
- It started with bats in a different province. Spread to one or more humans or an intermediate animal. Got to Wuhan where it could spread much more. It also become more optimized to humans somewhere along the way.
- It was a naturally occurring virus and was sampled and set to the Wuhan virology lab, where it possibly changed, and accidentally escaped.
- It was experimented on in the Wuhan virology lab to improve its capabilities, perhaps as a bioweapon. Probably escaped.
- (Nutty) It was made in the US and transferred secretly so that the whole world would blame China.
The claims it couldn't be engineered are (my attempt at interpretation) that the backbone isn't one a virologist would choose. Nor would they make the changes in the spike protein because virologists are better at copying nature than making successful wild guesses at what might work.
I'll repeat that I don't know. The natural origin narrative sounds somewhat stronger because of the number of bats available in the wild and all the mutations they could support by passing around viruses. Kind of like what humans are doing now, and we are seeing the variants pop up.
Extras. Biden and the Dems passed a covid relief bill in early March without support of Republicans. Repubs look like shit because of it. Keeping a link to a great article about the effectiveness of masks. I hate those stupid anti-maskers. Just wear it, damn it. It won't hurt you and it seems to help. Turf wars between Inspectors General including a covid IG. People leaving the Mormon church because too many Mormons are acting like angry Trumpers and not listening to the church leadership or medical experts who are urging care and compassion.
India is having a huge outbreak. This video shows what it's like for someone who runs a traditional Hindu crematorium when covid hits.
I read this on a private site, so no linking. However there was an explanation for why Michigan had a large surge in March: the return of snowbirds. A lot of Michiganders go south for the winter to places like Florida. There they picked up covid, many were asymptomatic, and they brought it back to Michigan to a less-exposed population. And, presto, a surge.
Update 5/10/21. Covid is causing significant increases in type 1 diabetes. This isn't a complete surprise because viral infections have long been suspected. But it's been noted among practices and now the information is being tracked.
More updates, mixed. Timeline of revelations about the Wuhan lab. Important related article. And some fact-checking. More focused on gain-of-function.
Update 6/25/21. A scientist has uncovered hints that several covid-like viruses were circulating in Wuhan and were sampled, and some sequences published and then withdrawn. This might indicate a natural evolution. But there's also a detailed discussion of the evidence of poor lab practices in the past and recently and also involving Wuhan that implicates a lab leak.
Update 7/18/21. Covid and Politics.....and Facebook. The Biden administrator announced or revealed taht it's telling Facebook when it finds disinformation about covid and the vaccines. Outrage meter spins. I guess the government shouldn't be countering disinformation, huh?
