Crazy GOP nominee now looks likely

There's a theory that the GOP movers and shakers choose the nominee, and the primaries are kabuki or smoke signals within that process. Readers of Bernstein know this as 'the party decides' thesis. It explains why the GOP nominee is squishier than the base of Limbaugh dittoheads would like: McCain in 2008 and Romney in 2012.

This year might be the year when the squishes get their comeuppance, and a real conservative (TM) wins. Right now, it looks to me as though Trump will win. His support had a few small dips, but then he surged back stronger than before. Cruz is running a fairly close second, though he's less popular outside the Bible Belt.

None of the establishment candidates (Bush, Rubio, Christie, or Kasich) is even a close third. For one of them to win, he would have to surge pretty quickly, and time is running out. Iowa is 2/1, New Hampshire is 2/9, South Carolina is 2/20, and Nevada is 2/23. Then a glut of primaries on Super Tuesday, 3/1.

But while writing this, perhaps I'm changing my mind. There may be time even after the March 1 primaries to change the overall direction. However, in the recent past, the direction was set early, before Super Tuesday. Maybe this year the contestants will be slugging it out all through March and April. That would certainly be exciting.

But if the GOP follows the usual pattern, we'll know the leader and the eventual winner by the end of February. If that's true this time, it will be one of the crazies, either Trump or Cruz. God help us.

Image: dailydiscord.com

Extras. From a couple weeks ago, and feeling dated, two views on how Trump will lose. From Vox, Trump has momentum only while winning. Once he starts losing, the magic fizzles and the tantrums start. From Ross Douthat at the NY Times, the race will come down to three, and the establishment candidate will then win. Among the less sure, I'm not the only person who sees Trump as a possibility now.  Plus, another great image.

Image: rawstory.com

Update 3/9/16. We still don't know who the nominee will be, but the establishment candidate are bringing up the rear. The crazies are the leaders. Interesting times. 

Short: The pandering has begun

Of course it's begun. It started long ago. However, it's also very good to read an article that so clearly points out the pandering, as this NY Times article does. The article focuses on how Scott Walker has been changing his positions to influence the very conservative GOP voters in Iowa. Walker has flipped on ethanol, immigration, and marriage equality.

Of course others have used such a strategy, and it tends to work. If some of your previous policies or principles don't align with your target voters, it's a no-brainer to change your position--if you're an ambitious politician, that is.

Those of us attuned to national politics already knew Scott Walker was a kiss-up. There was the hilarious faux phone call from the ultra-rich David Koch, actually an impersonator who released the audio. That Walker is going to kiss-up to Iowa voters, that's not a surprise.

Image: rightwisconsin.com

Lucky Santorum

Do you know the joke about being born on third base and thinking you hit a triple? We need a version for Santorum.

He was the least attractive of the not-Romneys, so he was the last to receive attention and the "bump." His luck was that his bump came so late it coincided with the Iowa caucuses. He's like a person in the last car on the roller coaster. He's only up there because everyone else has already been there and dropped.

Extra: If a ferris wheel metaphor would have worked, I'd use this pic. Let's see...

Santorum wins because he happened to be in the top car with the plane hit. ... 

See, it doesn't work. But enjoy the pic anyway. It's too good not to share.

My Crystal Ball - Iowa and beyond

On Bernstein's blog, we were asked for our predictions for Iowa. The caucuses in Iowa are inscrutable to foreigners, and I'm definitely a foreigner with regard to Iowa, so I don't have a prediction. But others on the blog made longer-range predictions, like Paul was going to be a stronger contender throughout the primary season. Be sure to read the interesting array of ideas. As for me, I'm afraid that I have a vanilla prediction.

I have pity for Mitt. He's the most sensible choice for the general election (Paul would be slaughtered), but the girl he's waiting for keeps dancing with all these bad-boys. He's even tried to be more bad-boy himself, but it's not working.

Despite the reluctance of the national party, I do think Romney will win in NH. I was up there this past weekend, and Romney had the most and largest signs. Ron Paul is second.

Romney will do well enough to stay in the race past Florida, and he'll have stronger wins after that. Gingrich will win a few, but people will find him less and less charming. He'll enjoy the campaign, avoid becoming nasty to his rivals, and be cordial when he bows out.

Paul will keep up the fight, but he doesn't have a shot. He'll have to decide whether to run as an independent.

I haven't mentioned Iowa because don't think it's going to be important. The only exception to that is if Paul does really well (1st or very high 2nd) and the same in NH. If Paul gets two wins or near-wins, he'll finally get some press. Once he gets some coverage, the merely curious will drop out, and he'll have only his die-hard 15%. (Because he really is Nader crazy.)

The final scorecard will look like this:

• Romney - gets the nomination, is gushingly grateful. The bride has her doubts all the way to the altar and beyond.
• Gingrich - his good cheer wins him elder statesman status--less than Reagan, but more than any other Republican. He remains very partisan, with frequent visits to Fox News and all the right-wing think tanks. 
• Paul - 80% find out for sure that Paul IS crazy. Fifteen per cent know for sure he's a genius. The remaining 5% are split between lizard-alien, regular alien, and "who?"

*****************************************************

To me, it's almost as though the Republicans are a contestant on Let's Make a Deal. The only difference is that they can see the prizes, and still the choice is difficult. "... Do I want the RV, the Mediterranean casino cruise, or the goat? Oh no, I can't decide."

Bonus predictions: Callista divorces Newt and takes over the Huffington Post. Both Newt and Ron Paul will be contestants on The Apprentice. Pirate videos of Ron Paul grabbing Trump's hair will go viral. Newt will get a Christmas special on TV and dress up as an elf. Lots of Christian stars will sing. Sarah and Bristol Palin will visit. President Romney will visit on the second season. Newt dies happy and fulfilled. The End.

Update 12/30/11. This post is already a bit out of date. I know it stuck out like a red flag: "Gingrich will win a few..." It now looks like this part of my prediction won't pan out. And I couldn't be happier--I loathe Gingrich.