Tuesday, July 4, 2023

Scientists and others argue about the origin of covid-19

This is fun. Normally it would only be a discussion among scientists doing expert research in virus evolution. However it seems like lots of people get into the game because of the huge global effect and the distrust of government authorities, scientists, and people in general. 

I have a good science background, but not much that will help me with virus genetics or the questions of whether covid-19 was engineered in some ways. Of course, nature itself is a great accidental engineer. A few genetic changes, some recombinant mix-ins, and lots of biological bodies to pass it all around, and many things can happen to a virus. 

But did people (in China) fool around with coronoviruses and make covid-19? Would there be telltale signs of human fiddling? I can't answer that based on my experience. Nor am I getting that information from scientific articles. I can believe that splicing leaves signs, but nothing confirms it. 

Some of the information in clearer forms:

Evidence that covid-19 isn't engineered. 

The furin cleavage site in covid is very unusual. However furin cleavage sites aren't uncommon, but maybe none is quite like covid's. A study on a bunch of furin cleavage sites. I'm not sure if it's relevant and what it means.

Then there are some government reports. A very long report from a senator on origins. Assessments from the US Director of National Intelligence in 2021 and 2023

There are also reports about experiments conducted at Wuhan Institute of Virology, but it's hard to say that they clearly indicate anything. Talk about recombinant virus experiments, etc. aren't by themselves proof that the actual covid virus was from WIV. We'd have to know the details of the genomes, wouldn't we? But none of it seems clear right now, and China has reason to cover up any information and make it murky. 

Perhaps these experiments will be clarified sometime. Speculation swirls in the meantime, including about this proposal for research and its mentions of furin cleavage sites on pages 13 and 41.

One thing I strongly believe. Intelligence investigations aren't going to tell us the origin. The strongest information isn't going to come from spies, intelligence analysts, or congress people arguing about gain of function. It's going to come from scientists and their discussions of the evidence in genomes and blood samples. So if scientists aren't leading the discussions, I'm going to discount the information. 

Image: American Chemical Society

Extras. Vanity Fair covid article based on intelligence, not genome. Timeline of covid origin. Claim that origin is wild, based on genomic evidence.

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