Day6: Thin strands of hope...

... but probably not. Perhaps Boehner shifted today toward a fiscal settlement rather than insisting on emasculating Obamacare. But on closer inspection, it looks like Obamacare is still a central focus. Ted Cruz is saying that they need to mitigate the damage of Obamacare. Boehner is saying "It is time for us to stand and fight."

Somewhere I read that the GOP will stand firm until midnight of the Oct. 16, one whole day before the debt default. So in the final 24 hours, we may have another day of mad scampering, proposals launched willy-nilly, and Ted Cruz thundering with unblinking, blood-shot eyes all day. My guess is that if we get to the Oct. 16 without some bargaining, nothing on Oct. 17 will be enough to end the impasse.

Image: politico.com

Day2 roundup: GOP plan, maybe. Tea Party plan, no.

So two days into the government shutdown, where are we? The GOP still seems to be scrambling around for a plan, but perhaps there are glimmers of one. Robert Costa, reporter for National Review, seems to have the best inside information. I've been reading his tweets since about 10pm on 9/30/13, and it's interesting. He seemed to learn very quickly what the House leadership's next move would be, like the ridiculous call for a conference committee to work out a deal in, oh, 1 hour.

So this morning, Costa tweets that Paul Ryan is going to try for a combo dealing covering both funding and debt limit, that will be "fiscal." What does that mean? My guess is that negotiations will focus on budget issues, particularly spending cuts to lower the deficit. Delaying or defunding Obamacare won't be the focus.

But wait. Early this afternoon, Costa tweets that the leadership will follow the Cruz strategy of funding everything piecemeal--probably everything except Obamacare and the EPA.

Nope, that didn't last. Mid-afternoon, Costa is tweeting again about Ryan being the lead bargainer on a grand deal. Again, there's nothing about Obamacare in this.

Does the conservative press know about this? I checked HotAir. They're referring to Costa and Politico, and speculating that maybe Ryan can pressure the Dems on Obamacare, or maybe he'll go for a more "traditional" fiscal deal. Meaning--like the sequester, which didn't touch Obamacare.

At Breitbart, a no-name columnist wants to keep the Cruz plan, but it's not a forward-looking column about what could or will happen in the next few weeks--so no plan there. TownHall, NewsMax, nothing on the Tea Party plan. Only at RedState, Erickson wants go back to defunding Obamacare and threatening any non-compliant Republicans with oblivion. It will work!!!!!!

What are the Dems doing? Waiting for the Republicans to sew themselves together into a semblance of a political force and make their next proposal, which hopefully will make more sense and last longer than the three four throw-away GOP proposals of Shutdown Eve.

Image: huffingtonpost.com

Extra. Belatedly in honor of Ted Cruz:

Image:  hyenacart.com

Short: GOP update

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Image: xaxor.com

Ted Cruz and friends take the car keys. Hey, is that Sarah Palin?

Everyone says "Let's run the experiment."

Soon we will see what a government shutdown looks like in the 2010's. I can't remember clearly what the last one was like in the 90"s except that one of the big complaints was that you couldn't get a passport for the overseas trip you wanted to take. Ah, those were good times, not like our lean times now.

The Tea Party has so completely snowed itself that it thinks it will win this standoff. Establishment Republicans are very nervous, but they have to do it or every single one will have a ferocious primary challenger. They're more scared of the Tea Party than of the electorate as a whole.

The Dems need to show they can hold on. They don't show much apprehension about the shutdown. They were issuing all kinds of warnings about the sequester, but not a peep about this shutdown. That's confidence.

Fox News thinks THERE'S STILL A CHANCE!!!! Wow, that's desperation. Actually, it was House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy: "You assume they won’t vote for it. Let’s have that debate." LOL. Sure, the Senate Dems will vote for it... when 'it' is GOP capitulation.

Image: noaa.gov shutting down in 3..., 2...

Short: But what is the alternative to...

What are the alternatives to Obamacare? I ask this question regular. What would have been the alternatives to the stimulus or alternative composition of the stimulus? Who were the alternatives to Mitt Romney? I definitely asked that question.

But here's a question I didn't ask: If you're a Republican, what alternatives do you have? There aren't many Republicans making good policy suggestions, but you don't just want to fold. Ted Cruz is offering an alternative, and he's one of the few doing it. At least that's what Bernstein writes.

There is something to this argument. However, a big reason that there aren't more Republicans making suggestions is that either:

1. The GOP have pretty much run dry on ideas.
2. Republicans with ideas are staying mum because they don't want to draw the attention and ire of the very vengeful Tea Party. 
3. (Holding place for other possibilities. I'm sure there are others that I can't think of.)

So maybe I have to disagree with Bernstein. Maybe the biggest problem isn't that the GOP isn't offering any alternative ideas to Cruz's approach. The problem is the Tea Party will rip apart anyone who offers a different idea. They are the equivalent of a Somali militia, I guess... maybe... really? I'm afraid maybe it's true.

Image: mw.nl

Extra. The Economist is kinder. They compare the Tea Party to the Students for a Democratic Society or Joe McCarthy. The author wants to compare them to some unnamed totalitarians (Stalin, anybody?), but doesn't want to get spammed be inflammatory.

Roundup: Still no Tea Party Plan

So the House surprised watchers by sending a hopeless funding bill to certain dismemberment in the Senate. The Senate even has a timetable for the dismemberment (Cruz yaks on Tuesday through Wednesday noon, cloture vote Wednesday, strip out Obamacare defunding Friday or Saturday, pass it, send it back to House for possible rinse and repeat). The Senate, anticipating the reaction from the House, might make it a short term funding bill only through November or December.

What is the Tea Party plan now? I went looking for it, inspired by Bernstein's very detailed guess about what would be happening in the House concerning the continuing resolution and debt ceiling votes (worth reading).

So this is what I found.

HotAir is telling its TP audience that Boehner's response will be a bill to delay Obamacare. HotAir warns that there will be a shutdown, but that will just light a fire under the lazy Senate.

Several voices are telling Tea Partiers that it's hopeless. Since they lost the election, Obamacare is going ahead and it can't be defunded. When John McCain tells them, the TP is defiant. Erick Erickson at RedState is defiant. He seems to think Cruz has a plan, but forgets to say what it is. At Breitbart, a columnist with that reality message is labeled a progressive, and the message is derided. Elsewhere at Breitbart, it's hooray for Cruz.

There are no signs that the Tea Party has a plan and even realizes the need for a plan. There's no discussion that "we do this, then they'll do that, then we'll counter with this." Nothing like that at all. These people are absurd in their lack of awareness that other people exist and have power. How did they get to be so oblivious? Jennifer Rubin, who is usually worthless, explains that they wrongly extrapolate their media share.

So are there any indications of what the Tea Party will do next? No. However, the ball will soon be back at the House, so the House leadership is trying to figure out its next move. They haven't ironed it out yet, as time ticks away to October 1. Politico reports the next House bill might delay the implementation of Obamacare. That would be another hopeless volley, and shutdown would follow. Perhaps the Washington Post report is more accurate--that the House might do something with a debt-limit increase and lots of sweeteners for GOP causes. It's not reported what the plan for funding is.

So it's all as clear as mud right now, 4.5 days away from the end of statutory funding. Thank you, Tea Party.

Image: citizenchris.typepad.com

Same day update: A preview of the proposal from the House shows one aspect of the Tea Party plan. They plan to make the fight as bloody as possible in non-contact politics. See the likely new demands. The Tea Party will be stabbing and nicking anyone who isn't a complete supporter. And they've invited their ravening friends to watch.

Update 9/27/13. Still no plan. House GOP to meet Saturday.

Rant: The stupid strategies of the Tea Party

OK, the last post was the polite version, asking the Tea Party to please, please use their power for good, reasonable purposes. This post is the rant.

The Tea Party really deserves the comparisons to a child having a tantrum. Why? Let's look at its strategies:

1. If you're a Republican, do what we want, or we'll run a Tea Party challenger against you the next chance we get. (This is a very effective strategy for the Tea Party so far.)
2. If you're a Dem in the federal government, we'll, um, um, wait until you fold. (Not so effective.)
3. If you're a voter, you don't matter if you're not Tea Party. (Not so effective.)

That's it-- that's the entire Tea Party playbook. Just look at what happened when the House GOP actually caved to the Tea Party demand and passed a continuing resolution with no funding for Obamacare. The Tea Party guys in the Senate had no plan! They had to figure it out the next day.

What is their plan for when the Senate strips out the defunding for Obamacare? Is it "Don't Blink?" Is it "wait for the other guy to cave?"

What is their plan if the Dems refuse to go along, there is no continuing resolution, and the government goes into shutdown? They haven't prepared a plan. They haven't told the public what to expect--which services will continue and which won't. What is their plan when offices of their members of Congress are deluged with angry callers? They have no plan.

That is how paltry and stupid the Tea Party is when it comes to planning. You are fucking kidding me! The Tea Party is amazingly stupid, yet they have a lot of support among traditional Republicans. The lesson here--there are way too many stupid Americans. This is embarrassing for me and my country.

Yeah, I know they feel the same way about me and millions of others. I don't know what to do. Sigh.

Image: salon.com