Messy post-mortem of the 2014 election

I was going to call this post "Learn or lose," but I'm not so sure what the lessons are. My first thought is that the Dems actually have to follow through on their sensible rhetoric about sensible budget restraint. They also have to pay attention to developments like the immigration crisis and how it changes public opinion.

Obstruct = Win ??

But perhaps the lesson from the election is that the GOP can obstruct, be irresponsible and uncooperative, not offer any sound alternatives, and they can still win. That's the message from this progressively-biased writer. If it's true that the GOP can get away with such behavior, what exactly can the Dems do about it? They've been messaging about the GOP obstructing non-stop for 6 years. That's an incredibly direct, simple message, backed up by loads of evidence, yet it made no difference in this election.

Incompetence = Lose ??

So pointing out the flaws of the GOP didn't help the Dems. Did the GOP win because it was able to make a coherent attack on the Dems? Perhaps to a certain extent. Obama's popularity has dropped into the low 40's, being especially hurt by the incompetence of the ACA roll-out. Obama hasn't been able to demonstrate strong problem-solving since. Conflicts in foreign countries have ramped up. It's not Obama's fault, but he didn't prevent or solve them. He didn't get to be the hero by quickly dealing with an Ebola outbreak here because we didn't have one. His reaction to the immigration crisis was to 1) ask for money, and 2) punt on his announced "big change" in immigration policy. Just what problem has Obama solved in the last 9 months? It's no wonder his popularity is stuck below neutral.

The Electorate is just plain tired ??

However, the popularity of the GOP in Congress is even lower. So how did they win? It could be that GOP voters were energized and went to the polls, while Dems were demoralized and stayed home. This often happens six years into a presidency. It happened in 2006, less so in 1986 (when Reagan remained popular) or in 1998 (when the electorate punished the GOP for its impeachment follies).

So in the absence of either party looking good, the out-party fared better because people blamed the in-party. Perhaps that's the explanation. Of course some die-hard progressives are again saying the president was too accommodating, and the Democrats will actually do better as a smaller, more ideological congressional caucus.

I disagree. I doubt there's a single shred of evidence that Democrats fare better at the polls when they're more liberal. Most of the evidence shows otherwise, including the long drought between 1968 and 1991 when only one Democrat was elected president.

Image: dailymail.co.uk

Extras. Some exit polling numbers and analysis. Most interesting numbers: 45% didn't think the election was a referendum on Obama. A surprising number of people who are neutral or somewhat opposed to the Tea Party voted Republican. The Tea Party wasn't the boogeyman that it had been in 2012. Dems couldn't successfully run against Tea Party as they did in 2012.

Don't care about Cantor

Eric Cantor lost his primary to a Tea Party challenger, and the political world is behaving like it was a massive earthquake.

Not me. I'm shaking my head and rolling my eyes. Didn't we all know that the Tea Party was gunning to pick off as many establishment GOPers as possible? The establishment knew it too, so they ran as hard as they could. Now that the Tea Party managed to pick off one guy in the GOP leadership, what does that tell us?

The lesson is one that the GOP had already learned--you have to run hard if you've got a Tea Party challenger. Cantor didn't, and he proved the conventional wisdom. But we already knew it!

I don't know if the Tea Party is crowing over this victory and the few others they've had. However, it's not even close to the sweep that the Tea Party threatened last year. So this defeat of Cantor doesn't change the dynamic at all. We still have a lot of establishment Republicans in office, and we still have the Tea Party chafing and bragging about what they're gonna do. Yawn.

Image: brunchnews.com

Civil War fallout 150 years later

The Senate may turn Republican in 2014 because of the Civil War. That's incredible, but likely true. A war 150 years ago is still playing out in US politics.

Not exactly. At first I thought some deep south states might still switch from D to R, but then I checked my hypothesis and found that the Deep South's switch from traditional Democratic representation to Republican was complete in 2004 when Zell Miller (D) retired and was replaced by a Republican in the Georgia senatorial election.

So why are the Republicans expected to take over the Senate in 2014, and why had it been expected in 2012? What are the developments that lead to that general expectation?

First, I'll dispel the notion that more states vote Republican than Democrat as a matter of course: Obama won 26 states in 2012.

So What Are The Trends?

To research this question, I used Wikipedia's list of senators, such as this entry for Maine. I looked at the patterns of the elections of senators. (Senators, being state-wide representatives, are better bellwethers.) I was surprised by the number of states that had mixed Dem/GOP electoral results for much of their history.

• Myth - the inland west was mostly Republican. They were all mixed until Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, and Arizona turned decidedly Republican.
• Myth - The northeast has been mostly Democratic for a long time. Northern New England was very Republican until recently. The northeast has turned mostly Dem only since the 1980s, while Northern New England remains mixed.
• Myth - The old Confederacy was solid Dem, and then became solid Republican. This isn't true of Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Louisiana, and Arkansas.
• Myth - the rural plains and mountain states are strongly GOP. Surprisingly, North and South Dakota and Montana have a very mixed record, electing many senators from both parties.
• Myth - the west coast has been liberal for a long time. These states were also mixed until the 1990s when they started turning decidedly Dem.

My research revealed that the GOP has a lot of reason for optimism when it comes to the Senate. Seven states that currently have Democratic senators are likely to turn more solidly Republican. The states are: North Carolina, Louisiana, Arkansas, West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana, and Alaska.

The Dems don't have many states on which they can pin similar hope, at least for the 2014 election. Maine and New Hampshire have the potential to become more liberal/Dem. Until the demographics change in states like Georgia, Texas, and Arizona, Dems have to hope for lucky pickups or wins due to strong local candidates.

So the GOP will go into the 2014 senate elections favored to pick up seats.

Yes, Civil War Fallout

The biggest surprise is that this sunny outlook for the Republican is indeed Civil War fallout. Arkansas and Louisiana are both southern states that are coming late to the conversion from solid Democrat to solid Republican. But that is only part of the good news for the GOP. They are also benefiting from the shift of western conservatives to solid Republican status.

1959: A very different map. New York is red, Texas is blue.

Image: wikipedia.org

Other Notes/Observations.

The most solid Republican state is Kansas. No state has been solidly Democratic throughout its history.

Solid Democratic states: 12.
Solid Republican states: 15.
Mixed: 23.

Northern New England was quite Republican until the 1950's, but the rest of New England has been much more mixed. Southern New England, mixed, then mostly Dem starting 2000

New York - mixed until late 1990's, then D.
New Jersey, no elected R since late 1970s.
Delaware - D until 1900, then mixed until 2000, then D.
Maryland - D until 1900, then mixed until 1980s, then D.
Penn - R mostly except during D waves.
WV - mixed.
Virginia - solid D post reconstruction until mixed starting 1960s.
NC - Mostly D post reconstruction until mixed starting 1970s.
SC - solid D post recontruction until all R after 2000.
Georgia - solid D post recon, mixed 1980's to 2000s, then all R.
Ala - solid D post recon until 1980's, solid R after 1990s.
Miss - solid D until 1980s, then solid R.

Kentucky - solid D post recon, mixed 1890s- 1990, then R.
Tennessee - almost solid D post recon, mixed 1970s, then R 1990s.

Florida - solid D post recon, then mixed starting 1960s.

Ohio- mixed.
Indiana - mixed.
Illinois - mostly R until 1930s, then mixed.
Michigan - solid R until 1930s, then mixed.
Wisc - mostly R until 1960s, then mixed.
Minn - mostly R until 1950s, then mixed/lean Dem.
Iowa - solid R until 1920s, then mixed.
Missouri - mixed, lots of reelections lost.
Arkansas - solid D until 1990's, then mixed.
Louisiana - solid D until 2000s, then mixed.

Texas - solid D until 1960s, solid R since 1990s.
Oklahoma - mixed until 1990s, then solid R.
Kansas - almost solid R throughout.
Nebraska - mostly R thoughout.
SD - solid R until 1910's, then mixed. Lots of lost reelections.
ND - mixed throughout.

Montana - mixed/lean D.
Idaho - mixed until 1960s, then R.
Wyoming - mixed until 1970s, then R.
Colorado - mixed since 1900s.
New Mexico - mixed.
Arizona - mixed until 1990s, then R.
Nevada - mixed throughout.
Utah - mixed until 1970s, then R.

California - mixed until 1990's, then D.
Oregon - mixed until now, now D?
Washington - mixed until 2000, then D.

Alaska - mostly R since 1980s.
Hawaii - solid D since 1970s.

Edit 3/23/14. Fixed mistakes. North Dakota isn't having a Senate election in 2014. Added W. Virginia and N. Carolina as likely to become more Republican. Also, 538 is currently predicting that the GOP takes control of the Senate. The GOP will probably try very hard to be more careful this year in their Senate nominations because of the mistakes in 2012. That will also increase their odds of taking the Senate.