Post election: Electoral map

This is my favorite electoral map  (from the University of Michigan). I like the county-level detail. Most interesting to me is the Obama-leaning border counties both northern and southern. But really, why is northern Minnesota so blue? Curious.

Image: umich.edu

Prediction: Just the horse race now

The shape of the rest of the presidential campaign is now set. There will be no more surprises or major surges. At this point, it's just a matter of sucking up the few remaining persuadables and getting out the vote. I don't even think there will be a major gaffe. The candidates are too cautious and seasoned for that.

No-Hope Debate

Some may hope for a game-changer, perhaps at the final debate tomorrow. I doubt it. The debate is supposed to focus on foreign policy. Both candidates will project caution and credibility, so each will have a difficult time discrediting the other. Nothing in those complex, subtle issues will move the needle for the electorate. 

The Electoral Map

Since the campaign issues are now fully revealed and explored, the only variables are how the electorate is digesting the info. According to Nate Silver, Obama is favored about 2 to 1. Looking at Silver's blog and Real Clear Politics, that's believable. Both need either Ohio or a miracle, and Obama is ahead in Ohio by 2.1%. Silver puts Obama's chance of winning Ohio at 70%.

Even if Obama loses Ohio, he can still win if he holds onto Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire. If Romney loses Ohio, he has to win those four states in which Obama now leads. That's quite a stretch. (To play with possible outcomes, I recommend this LA Times webpage.)

Another Lost Opportunity

I have to report that this outcome is disappointmenting to me. Neither politician has believably addressed the most important fiscal issues, which are reforming the tax system and government spending. Nor have they pushed the electorate to a clear understanding of the national challenges. The country seems as dumb and divided as before. Sigh.

Oh well, so there hasn't been the plain talk I'd like to see. That would be too dangerous a strategy for a presidential campaign.

The racecourse: High in the center and round at both ends

Image: facebook somewhere

Short: Playing with the electoral map

The LA Times has a fun electoral map where you can assign and reassign swing states to either Obama or Romney. In playing with it, I found that my estimate for Obama's best haul is 311 electoral college votes. If he does better than that, I'll be very surprised. For Romney, that number is 301.

I played around with scenarios I thought were likely, and found one where it's a tie. Obama loses Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Virgina, N. Carolina, and Florida, but keeps Ohio, PA, Wisconsin, N. Mexico, and N. Hampshire. I think I'll die from anxiety if that happens. Or maybe I should bet that it WILL happen, and the thought of collecting on the bet will keep me breathing.

Strange bit: To search for this image, I typed "ambulance emergency oxygen mask" into Google, and got about 8 pictures of Dennis Hopper in the first 6 pages of images.