Showing posts with label Georgia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Georgia. Show all posts

Sunday, October 8, 2023

My take on the Georgia indictments

Fascinating. Nineteen people are indicted so this is a contrast to the federal charges where Trump was the only named defendant. There is a lot of common territory though because Trump's plans to get states to overturn their elections results happened in Georgia as one of the primary places. These indictments are state-level charges, not federal, because states (unsurprisingly) also have laws against election hijinks. Nineteen defendants, 41 counts, and an average of over 7 counts per defendant since many counts have multiple offenders listed. 

Some of the charges:

A Rico conspiracy to do a bunch of bad shit with many threads and tentacles. 

Solicitation of violation of oath by public officers - trying to get officials to do illegal or unethical shit. 

Impersonating a public official, forgery, false statements for pretending you're an elector when you're not. 

Perjury and false statements galore - to the GA legislature, to investigators, committees. I assume that the perjury charges are based on lying when under oath in a legal proceeding. 

Can the Rico charges stand? Can defendants be charged in Fulton county with offenses that occurred in Coffee County? Is it a criminal false statement to wrongly characterize action in a video, or just a mistake that isn't criminal? This applies to statements about video of counting from the State Farm Arena. However before the State department of GA clarified the actions shown in the video, it may reasonably have been misinterpreted. 

When does conferring with a witness cross the line to the criminal act of influencing witnesses? 

Some of the incidents: Lying about the State Farm Arena video. Lying about election workers. Harassing election workers. Pressuring election workers over their testimony. Falsely saying and signing documents as a presidential electors. Unsanctioned access to voting machines in Coffee County. Lying about what you were doing with those voting machines. Pressuring the secretary of state of GA to find 11780 votes. 

These are the most satisfying indictments yet because the major players will be having to answer for their acts, unless they decide not to mount a defense. It's less complicated when Trump is the sole defendant, but it's fully complete when his henchman are there too. It's also great that they all had to come in and get mug shots. 

Image: PBS


Extras. The report from the investigative grand jury. They were considering indicting Sen. Lindsay Graham too. 


Saturday, January 23, 2021

Was I prepared for what happened at the Capitol?

I knew Jan. 6 was going to be a big day. As with the Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville, the fans were planning to turn out. This wasn't going to be a flop. It was going to be major. 

I wrote to a friend that I was going to make a shopping run in the evening unless things went 'batshit crazy.' That's what I wrote Tuesday, Jan. 5. 

By Jan. 7 or later, I was trying to recapture what my expectations were. Here's what I've been able to reconstruct.

Background on rallies

There had been a very large Trump rally on Nov. 14 that was overwhelmingly peaceful. It could have been like that, but I didn't think it would stay that calm. After all, Trump had been gearing up the rhetoric, and appeared to be getting more reckless instead of more resigned. The prior Saturday, Trump called the Secretary of State of Georgia to pressure him to find 17,800 votes and give the election to Trump. This was nuts for a number of reasons. 

  1. The Secretary of State had been vocal about the issues, how he had investigated them, and how very little fraud was found. This included a hand recount and a second machine recount.
  2. It was too late. The vote results had been certified by all the powers in Georgia, so it was official.
  3. The Electors had already met and voted. 
  4. There wasn't any time for reversing the certification and having a new certification giving the votes to Trump. 
Getting desperate?

So it was clear that Trump wasn't bowing to the inevitable. On Monday, Jan. 4, he floated the idea that Mike Pence would do the right thing and throw out Biden votes. Again, Trump ignored the evidence that Mike Pence would do no such thing. The idea had already been floated, and Pence was clearly not embracing it. 

So Wednesday was the day that Congress would certify the votes from the Electors, and Joe Biden would officially be the next president. 

Trump seemed to hope that he had a way to prevent that, but was there a legal route left to do that? All legal routes, except a very farfetched one, had been exhausted. The farfetched legal route was that Electoral College votes would be challenged in Congress, the challenges debated, both houses of Congress would throw out enough votes so that Biden didn't meet the 270 vote threshold, and then both houses of Congress would vote to declare Trump the winner. 

Did Trump really believe he and his mass rally of supporters could influence Congress to that degree? Maybe Trump believed, maybe he didn't. 

Maybe Trump didn't care about whether the route was legal or not. Maybe he would have been happy to have his mob take hostages and demand that Congress award the presidency to Trump. Certainly some of the mob were planning to do that. It's ironic because they also claimed to be fighting for the Constitution at the same time they were clearly using force and violence to exert their will upon Congress. That's not very constitutional. 

So what did I really expect? 

I expected Trump supporters to surround Capitol Hill. I expected a lot of shouting and grandstanding. I didn't expect that they would break in and have mobs roaming through the Capitol. But my definition of 'batshit crazy' was mobs holding hostages and demanding that Congress declare Trump president. Also possibly kidnapping members of Congress from their homes, on the way to the Capitol, or family members of Congress people. I didn't think it was likely to go that far, but it was on my radar. 

And Trump's mobs got 80% of the way there. However, they didn't take hostages, and they didn't get to make demands based on holding hostages. They probably would have done this, but the Capitol police weren't going to allow them to do that. The police would shoot to kill before they would allow hostages to be taken. So it was the strength of the police, and their willingness to use deadly force, that prevented the worst batshit scenario. 

But not just the police. The mobs weren't armed for the most part, and they weren't planning to use deadly force. The use of force by the police drew a line that the mob wasn't willing to cross. The next time there's a mob like this, they will most likely know in advance that they are have to cross that line. 

Cyborg with zipties for distinguished members of Congress
Image: cbsnews.com


Friday, January 15, 2021

The plans to keep Trump in the White House

(Sorry, catching up with backlog.)

This isn't easy because Trump didn't win enough states to win the Electoral College. So there have been other schemes. Lots of lawsuits trying to change the election results in states where the vote was close. Appeals to states where the GOP is the majority of the legislature to stop the usual procedures for appointing electors and substituting Trump-loyal electors instead. Trump calling the governor of Arizona as he's signing the certification (to threaten or plead????). Telling the governor of one state to call a special session of the legislature. States suing other states for how they ran their elections. Other states, Trump, and over 100 members of Congress signing on to the suit ( ...which was denied by the Supreme Court). Oh, did I forget to say disenfranchisement on a colossal scale? Some rallies, but not that many or anything really huge. 

Since it's after Dec. 14, the electors of the Electoral College have met and given Biden 306 votes versus 232 to Trump. The attempt to get Trump-loyal electors in place, or prevent Biden electors from being certified failed. Biden made it to 270. 

The last chance is an objection to the joint session of Congress on Jan. 6. If a member of the House and Senate both object, each chamber has to listen to the objection and vote whether or not to accept the objection. Some loyal folks think this will work and Trump is pushing on senators to get in line. In preparation for some states being overturned one way or another, self-appointed electors for Trump have formed delegations. Is martial law being considered? There are numerous reports of it, and Lin Wood and Sidney Powell are pushing it. But there are also denials. Trump himself isn't keeping a cool head, but is turning on everyone. 

And there's yet another legal-route attempt, this time by Louie Gohmert and others. He opines that the VP (as president of the Senare) has the power to dismiss electors and choose other electors. Really? That sounds very dictatorial to me. I don't think that was the intention of any of the laws. Mike Pence didn't sign on to this thinking either, even though Gohmert gave him the opportunity. 

Image: nbcnewyork.com

Extras. Trump gave his 'most important speech ever' trying to tell how the election was stolen. Too bad the same claims didn't work in court. But for his followers, he's a beacon of hope and ....truth. That's sad. 

Most embarrassing document ever created by a White House staffer. The article also has some good stats on the election. And another superlative: the dumbest lawsuit filed about the election. 

Ron Johnson, senator from Wisconsin, had a somewhat heated but very ineffective hearing about election fraud. Claims of fraud just don't seem to have any traction after they've been rejected by a dozen judges. They need something fresh, new, powerful, and true, but none of that is happening. Too bad Johnson didn't have this GOP leader from PA testify. She said that her house would be bombed if she publicly refused to do Trump's bidding, so she's keeping it quiet rather than pointing out how unconstitutional his demands are. 

Trump is so busy trying to overturn the election that he didn't pay attention to the looming government shutdown if spending bills weren't passed. Same with any covid relief bill. The House and Senate finally managed to do it, and Trump belittles it. What was he doing all that time? Then he ended up signing the bill after days of acting like he wasn't going to. 

Trump tried a hail-Mary pass at strong-arming the Secretary of State of Georgia. It didn't work, but it was recorded and leaked. A couple days later, a top GA elections official debunked many of Trump's claims of fraud. 

Column on the big picture. The details about Trump are ludicrous or chilling. But the big picture is of a person who should never have been president, but was. Even more reported: Trump tried to get DOJ officials to declare the election 'corrupt,' and then Trump would execute some unnamed maneuver. 

There are examples of people taking responsibility. Here's one--the official in charge of vaccine distribution incorrectly interpreted the amount of vaccine that would be available for use, and had to tell the states that were getting less. 

Wednesday, December 16, 2020

Fraud claims in Michigan and other states

Fucking Trump (yes, there will be rants in this post) has been claiming rampant voter fraud for years, and he has a chorus of Republicans and conservative media backing him up. None of them are honest about the level of fraud or where it is. Fraud is a convenient claim, so helpful for saying 'we deserve this' and 'the other guys are evil.' 

This year, with covid, it was clear that many people would be mailing in their ballots. It was completely predictable, but the GOP had to turn it into a divisive issue, where mail-in ballot were suspicious, loaded with fraud, and unAmerican. 

Trump summoned GOP lawmakers from Michigan to the White House. Some folks were panicked about this, but the signs mostly indicated that the Michiganders wouldn't succumb to pressure. A long article about many chapters in the Michigan saga, including rallying the screamers for ballot-counting the next, and taking a stand on certification. Many Republicans hate anyone who isn't working on overturning the results, so principles be damned.

The state election canvassers were facing an unprecedented choice: certify or venture into unknown territory. Another story about the canvassers. More on the initial counting of ballots. And the BBC looks into claims of 10K dead voters and find that the list is bogus and full of holes... and live people. 

In a moment of ironic levity, a star witness of ballot processing in Detroit repeatedly spoke over a Republican representative at a formal hearing, insulted him, becoming a real-life example of a character from Saturday Night Live. The real-life caricature is unbowed and unrepentant. 

A judge in Michigan was petitioned to stop a certification, and he told each side to submit their 7 strongest affidavits. You know, all those thousands of great affidavits proving the fraud? Well, the Michigan GOP either chose very badly or their affidavits were junk, because they lost. It turns out that affidavits are evidence, but not necessarily solid, credible evidence. Ooops. Speculation doesn't count, it seems. 

The Pennsylvania federal circuit court of appeals blasts Trump's claims and reminds him and his lawyers that you don't invalidate votes like that. We are Americans and our votes matter. In Pennsylvania, there have been so many lawsuits its hard to keep up with all of them. Some have tried to throw out a few ballots, but that doesn't help much, so most suits have tried to throw out A LOT of ballots. So the arguments are that fairness requires millions of votes get thrown out. These suits have not gotten too far. Some GOP legislators are trying to be put aside the election. Again, go against the tradition and throw out the election. It's not getting a warm welcome. 

In depth - Accusation for pre-printed ballots for Biden in Georgia

So an experienced poll observer told about a group of ballots that appears to be pre-printed with votes for Biden. Hmmmm, an experienced worker is much more credible than some new screamer who doesn't know what's normal and what isn't. She is called to testify at court, but doesn't say much except that the ballots were pristine instead of having worn edges. (Similarly in her affidavit.) However, in the video she embroiders on the claims, saying that the vote markers looked the same for all the ballots, but she didn't make that claim while under oath. 

Even more interesting is the seven hours of hearings by a Georgia subcommittee. A great cross-section of fraud and other complaints. 

Image: pennlive.com

Extras. A roadmap of the strategy the GOP might use to overturn the election. Live updates of the recount in two counties in Wisconsin. The margin was tight, but Wisconsin rules are even tighter, so Trump's campaign had to pay for it. An explanation on why a signature check in Georgia is worthless. It is also not legal under current law. More information about signature checking in Georgia. A Georgia legislator finds the names of constituents she personally knows on a list of supposed fraudulent voters. A monitor hired by the state to watch Fulton County talks a bit about what he saw. 

A mathematical theory debunked. A typical claim from Trump, being divorced from reality. Another claim, that 80 million ballots were sent out. It was 44 million, and that included California and states that have had vote-by-mail for years. 

Wisconsin was the only state not to settle all its (in-state) issues by safe harbor day. Maybe I'll have to post a followup if it gets interesting. Oh, and at least one WI legislator thinks the legislature should choose the electors instead of following the usual process. I wonder what party he's in? 

Arizona. The GOP in Arizona is split between the crazies and the not-crazies. The governor and a bunch of others are now being reviled for following the election laws instead of following the true law of doing what helps Trump. Some important articles about the Arizona recount sponsored by the deluded and partisan AZ senate Republicans. It starts. Not looking so good. The election board of Maricopa County explains elections. And gives even more technical details. 

What was the fraud complaint? Could you explain that please? And another. And two more. 

A transcript of a news conference that Giuliani gave with Sidney Powell, who had promised a 'kraken' that would crash many states and the entire election. Her beliefs were a mishmash including vote-switching software from Venezuela, a countrywide algorithm that was supposed to switch just enough votes, servers in Germany, and thousands for people who bought the voting software with plans to benefit by guaranteeing their wins. Update on kraken failure to engulf states. Monsters of the deep aren't what they used to be. 

A Florida attorney solicits Floridians to move to Georgia to swing their senate seats in the runoff. However doing that is illegal. Ooooops. 

A collection of the disinformation being circulated. A kitchen sink of the evidence by the evidence believers themselves. 

Major report from the GOP-lead Michigan Senate. No major fraud. Sorry guys, couldn't find it. A judge in Michigan grills Trump attorneys at a hearing about allegations of misconduct. 

MyPillow CEO kept claiming he had proof of voting machine tampering, but it was a bunch of bullshit. 

Summary of the election lawsuits where evidence was presented and was the basis for the decisions. 

Update 5/13/2022. The Secretary of State that Trump tried to strong-arm into 'finding' extra Trump votes is dedicated to finding fraud--that is, real fraud or malfeasance. He found about 2000 cases of non-citizens registering and 4 cases of ballots cast for dead people. 

Update 12/14/23. The slate of fake electors in Michigan is being investigated in public hearings. Some details of the plans and what occurred. Smart ones stayed away or got covid and couldn't attend. 

Update 7/27/26. Trump had ballots subpoenaed and seized from Atlanta, GA (Fulton county). Lawfare critiqued the affidavits for the warrant. Another helpful link -- to the report of the GA Secretary of State into 5 voter fraud complaints. Conclusion: No violations found. 

HALLELUJAH, WE DUMPED TRUMP

This is a dump right now. Maybe I'll fix it up, maybe not.

Before the election, there was early voting and mail-in voting. The GOP, was usually, tried to juice up their edge by suppressing votes, or asking for votes (even >100K votes in Texas) to be thrown out. The answer was a resounding NO. 

On Election Day, there appeared to be three scenarios: A clear Biden win, a close election that Biden wins, or a nail-biter that Trump wins. Trump delusionists thought there could be a landslide for Trump, but I never bought into that. 

Some prognosticators predicted an easy victory for Biden, over by midnight, or maybe by 9:00PM EST. That wasn't the case, which was clear when results started coming in for Florida with Trump winning there. So opinion polling was off again, with Trump support underrepresented. There were suggestions that Trump supporters frequently lied to pollsters, considering pollsters to be part of the deep state-establishment elite, and therefore the enemy. 

Early leads, later losses

Trump had big early leads in many states, including Michigan and Virginia. I went to bed having seen Virginia turn. I woke up to a somewhat brighter picture, but no certainty. Iowa was decisively red, which wasn't a surprise at that point. Minnesota was blue. Wisconsin was close, but blue. Michigan was turning blue. Nevada was close, but the outstanding vote was going to favor Biden, and he consistently gained there. Arizona had Biden with a good margin. Pennsylvania was a nail-biter. Georgia was an unexpected bonus as it edged blue. North Carolina didn't have the blue surges others did, but turned from blue to red to redder. 

With the close margins and numbers of mail-in ballots, it was a matter of waiting for the counts. Walk-in voting is easier. Identification is usually done on the spot with few snafus. Processing mail-in ballots is more labor intensive, and it took a long time due to the high numbers of ballots. Counting went on through Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Some folks looked at the numbers and decided on their own on Friday night that Biden had won. News organizations didn't call the win for him until Saturday near noon, when many called Pennsylvania as a Biden win, pushing him over 270 for the win. Biden was later declared the winner in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, giving him 306 electoral votes versus Trump's 232. (Few links, mostly from vivid recent memory.)

The claims that the election was being rigged started well before the election, and was a claim Trump made before the 2016 election too. It was just as bad in 2020 even though it was well known that there were lots of mail-in ballots and they would likely favor Biden heavily. This was all known beforehand, but some people still screamed that the election was being stolen even though valid votes were being fairly and legally counted. 

"Irregularities"

While the Biden supporters partied, the Trump supporters fumed about cheating, irregularities, pallets of ballots delivered in the night, software switching votes, how counting should have stopped at midnight, poll watchers fooled and not allowed to watch the counting, and other charges. 

A postal worker in PA claimed that ballots still in the post office on Wednesday morning were stamped with Tuesday postmark and shipped to counting centers. Project Veritas recorded the claim. Postal inspectors grilled the whistleblower, and his story changed. Supposedly he recanted, but then recanted again. It's still not clear where it stands, though it's not being pushed hard, so it looks like it was opportunistic on the part of the postal worker. Oh, did I forget to mention that he started a GoFundMe page that collected $136k? Being a whistleblower hero pays, so there's incentive there. 

Trump's legal team are like the Keystone Kops. Rudy Giuliani's staff mistakenly booked a press conference at the Four Seasons Landscaping business instead of the Four Season hotel. The neighboring businesses were particularly ironic: an adult toy store and a crematorium. 

Another center of fraud accusations was attorney Sidney Powell, who kept pushing fraud stories. One was about identical ballots are marked only for Biden. That one seems to fizzle. Then it morphed into software shenanigans (with Venezuelan election-stealing software) and pallets of ballots. She colorfully claimed to have so much information it was like a firehose, and that she'd soon be 'releasing the kraken' -- that mythical monster of immense power. Many of us awaited this release, and waited, and waited. At this point, I'm still waiting, though I think it will as much bullshit as thinking they had a real kraken. 

Georgia was a sobering and hopeful story. The Secretary of State is a loyal Republican, but most loyal to clean, fair elections. He announced a mandatory recount due to the margin of less than 0.25% difference, or around 14k votes out of 4.9 million. He stayed committed to fair elections was he was insulted by Trump and numerous other Republicans. The recount turned up errors amounting to several thousand votes, but no vast cheating. 

Image: alabamanews.net

Extras. Biden won by being cautious, caring, and solid, and emphasizing a sober approach to the covid pandemic. Exit polling showed Biden doing well with young voters, older voters, minorities, and women. Independents broke for Biden in a sizable way. 

Close to final vote count:

81,283,098 (51.3%) to 74,222,597 (46.8%)

A poll worker with covid worked, and died a few days later. Uhhhh, this is what we wanted to avoid!!!!

An early article (Nov. 9) about Republicans standing up to Trump. Sadly, not enough of them. The abettors seems to be louder and more numerous. A senator can't say publicly that he thinks Trump is an asshole because that's political suicide. 

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

GRAND REOPENING - COMING SOON - RIGHT HERE!!!!

Well, after all those quickly executed shutdowns and lockdowns, it was inevitable that we would need to have reopenings, but hopefully they would be orderly and well-planned. I first asked myself about this on 3/29/20, and I'm glad I did. Since we luckily avoided having everywhere in crisis, every state had some spare capacity to start planning reopening. Now some of those plans are being released and going forward. This is something to celebrate, though in a sober manner with good social distancing and hygiene practices. Yes, we dodged a bullet, and didn't have the level of outbreak that northern Italy had. Congrats to us and the people who urged wise steps.

So here are a somewhat random assortment of reopening plans. The first one out of the gate was Georgia. Not well organized, but instead managed like a political football. Trump was encouraging opening (LIBERATE!) as soon as possible, and under threat from mass protests, though the mass protests didn't actually happen. In that atmosphere, Georgia went big and bold, which means foolhardy. Trump then reversed his support and mildly criticized the plan, which I think is going ahead anyway.

Texas is being more cautious than Georgia with a phased plan to open stores, restaurants, libraries, museums, and theatres at 25% capacity starting on May 1. The second phase starts on May 18. Counties with 5 or fewer cases can open at 50% capacity.

Mike DeWine, governor of Ohio and a leader in taking charge and not waiting for Trump, sets out some conditions based on hygiene and social distancing. However, he backed down on face coverings 'cuz Merrikans don't like them. Also, the plan was to coordinate with other regional governors, but Michigan's governor hadn't put together a plan in time.

The leadership by the federal government is minimal, as it generally has been, except when it comes to underwriting programs (mostly for businesses). The federal guidelines expect the states to set up testing, tracing (sure!), supplies of protective equipment, etc. Well, if states have all that responsbility, the federal government can shove their guidelines where the sun don't shine.

Well, interesting times. Stay tuned for sure!

THIS WILL BE A DEFACTO CLEARINGHOUSE FOR REOPENING POSTS, COMMENTS, AND UPDATES.

Image: wtol.com

Extras. How New Mexico avoided disaster. New Mexico again, but the epidemic is heavy in Gallup and the Navajo lands, with good video. A critique of how New Jersey handled its shutdown--Hoboken did it early and provides evidence of the doubling time being around 3 days.  New Zealand (yes, I know, not a state in the US) did great. Hokkaido (northern Japanese island) opened to soon and too aggressively and had to close again.

Views of workers in the US about safety and other issues.

Still new cases, still new hospitalizations. Why is this happening during the shutdown? Answer: Many are essential workers.

Florida has plans for major theme parks to reopen, but their management doesn't seem quite so eager.

Surge of covid cases in Texas, located in the panhandle. How will this go? On 6/26/20, the governor had to close bars back down. Also no elective surgery in the most populous counties. Very typical epidemiological measures.

A region in China sees about a dozen new cases, and they lock it down.

Missouri and Maryland had packed venues during Memorial Day weekend. Will we be seeing the consequences in a month or two? Bars in Texas were allowed to reopen, and the mayor of Houston is worried.

California has had a rather tight lockdown, but cases haven't slowed. What to do next?

The governor of N. Carolina (a dem) has slowed down the reopening and is telling people to damn-well wear a mask.

An article focusing on psychological reactions and why liberals and conservatives aren't responding the same to covid-19.

A lot of southern states are seeing surges in covid cases. How will this affect the presidential election? This includes Texas. More information about cases in southern Texas and half of Florida. How Texas fumbled its reopeening to create a surge of cases. When medicine and politics clash, some politicians are going to prioritize their candidates and their parties. Kelly Anne Conway makes Trump the cautious sage of reopening?!?!

Battles over school reopenings in Texas and California. Of course it's going to happen. Sickout by teachers and staff closes Arizona schools. 

And then the colleges... Lots of unnecessary mixing by college students doing the party thing. Lots of colleges. I couldn't list them all. 

Anti-mask militants get angry in Idaho. Yes, the absurdity of the existence of militants against masks. 

And a hair salon owner sets up and embarrasses Nancy Pelosi. And denies she set up Pelosi while appearing on Fox News. I'm not falling for that. 
 
And as summer ended and cool weather came, so did a surge in covid. This isn't unexpected for a respiratory virus. Increases nearly everywhere, and surges in some places. Here's a surge in El Paso TX.


Sunday, November 4, 2018

October links: too many

GOPers learn to negotiate. The GOPers in Congress learned and managed to fund the government. No shutdown. Trump was out of the loop.

Lying scummy politics. A scummy, lying trick in a campaign ad. Chris Collins, indicted for insider trading, gives a completely false translation of his opponent's words.

A lying scientist. Cornell

Trump outrageous again. I think it's part of his plan. In love with NK dictator.

Revision of a critique on conservatism. Maybe it is a lot of paranoia. This is a very good read--maybe the most important in several months.

Dangers in US-China relations. Link.

Coerced sex is legal. If done by police.

Russia investigation update. A Trump operative considered using phony accounts. Buried in this article: sentencing for Manafort and Flynn. Does that mean the investigation is almost over? I'm guessing yes. You don't sentence your informants until they have fulfilled their side of the bargain.

Famous for 15 minutes. A mom screws up against #metoo. Funny.

California voter registration. Always curious about this black hole.

Climate change links.

Anti-democracy. Georgia puts voter applications on hold.

Antifa and Nazis are still fighting, but I lost the link.

Image: aip.org

Sunday, January 7, 2018

Interesting factoids

My blog is now mostly links. But that doesn't mean I'm not thinking. I feel like I'm thinking as much as before. So I can't really explain why my writing has changed to these collections of short, link-based reflections.

Here are a bunch of lighter link that are still interesting.

Energy promise fulfilled? In Australia, a huge battery system is providing backup for when renewables faulty and storage for when the energy output is abundant. This is such an important step in making renewables primary in large-scale energy production.

Kick him when he's down. We can laugh and/or sneer at formerly famous alt-right jerk Milo Y__(whatever). Here's an article on his unpublished books and the editor's comments.

Hackable votes. This one is heavier: an article about how Georgia has very poor security for its electronic voting machines. It contains first-hand reports of problems and officials trying to cover them up.

Good news/bad news. A funny conundrum. Media has done very well under the Trump campaign and presidency. Viewership is up, profits are up. It could be very nasty (in financial terms) if Trump doesn't win in 2020.

Trump's mental condition. Hahahaha. Nearly everyone has an opinion, but this is the opinion of a trained neurologist.  I've had some training in neurology, so I notice many of the behaviors the neurologist mentions. I would add this: look for changes, particularly diminishing ability. As far as I can tell, Trump hasn't deteriorated, but we should be alert for the signs. This is a reasonable place for a bookmark to a lawyerly explanation for why impeachment hearings are warranted. I don't agree, but the case is well argued.

A journalist on our side. Maybe Trump, Bannon, or whoever thought Michael Wolff could be trusted to write positive fluff pieces, and they found out otherwise when he wrote Fire and Fury. This is the kind of piece that might have given them false hope. It's a sympathetic view of Roger Ailes. It also sounds like he flattered people's egos, basically conning the con men that staff the White House. I don't trust him to be fair and scrupulously accurate. However, he claims to have tapes of some interviews. Added fun!

Image: newsday.com


Sunday, August 3, 2014

Don't worry about Ebola in Atlanta

Two American missionaries who were treating the Ebola outbreak in Africa have contracted the disease. One has already been transported back to the US, and the plan is to transport the other also. They will be treated in a special isolation unit at Emory University Hospital in Atlanta.

How dangerous is it to bring these patients into the US? That's a good question. However, there are some very bad answers to this good question, like these:
"Martial law is what we risk if an epidemic of something like Ebola were to break out here. Far better to prevent its entry to begin with. Not understanding that is moronic."
"This should not and cannot be allowed; that plane should be shot out of the sky; that hospital, burned to the ground; the unelected bureaucrats and plutocrats behind this decision publicly executed as traitors and tyrants; along with and including our President, who could have stopped this and did not due to this personal hatred of the citizens and dedication to the destruction of the United States." --comments here
So, doom predictions from the peanut gallery aside, how worried should we be? Let's think about it.

Ebola hasn't spread worldwide, unlike various forms of flu. Why? Because it doesn't spread as easily as flu. The disease is spreading on the ground in West Africa, but it hasn't gotten into a major city, even with the traveling that people tend to do. Supposedly, people can't pass it on until they're showing symptoms, so you can't pick it up easily or randomly. It doesn't spread via the air. That's very good, and is probably why it hasn't spread throughout the world.

The usual method of infection is from handling the fluids from a person with symptoms, so the visitors and caregivers are the ones who are being infected. Again, it's not random people down the street.

With this limited mode of infection, it won't be hard for a well-prepared hospital to contain the contagion. They will limit the people who have contact. The air from the isolation unit won't be circulated elsewhere. Caregivers will be gowned appropriately and will disinfect appropriately. The staff will be monitored closely, and any sign of illness will be scrutinized, not ignored. Finally, two patients will not overwhelm the resources of the hospital or the special isolation unit.

Am I worried? No. These people are experts in dealing with communicable diseases. This is their expertise, and they practice it a lot. It's the first time they've had an Ebola patient, but hardly the first time they used these procedures. So if you're worried, calm the heck down.

The Ebola patient arrives. No zombies. No martial law.
Image: cnn.com


Extra. Idiot-in-Chief Donald Trump weighed in on the idiot side, of course.

Saturday, November 24, 2012

The sixth sense of Grover Norquist

Here's another politician who's dead and doesn't acknowledge it. Last time it was Newt Gingrich. This time it's Grover Norquist. The Wall Street Journal just published a long interview with him where he tries to buck up the troops in Congress to hold the line on taxes.

"Going over the fiscal cliff, that's not so bad," he seems to say [not his actual words]. Here are his actual words about the fiscal cliff: [It is] "a completely invented crisis. Republicans can't allow themselves to be TARPed again."

The revolt against his tax pledge isn't a major worry to him, because the media is inflating it by interviewing the same five or six elected officials over and over. However, Saxby Chambliss, senator from Georgia, backpedaled the pledge on Wednesday, because he "cares a lot more about American" than about Grover Norquist. That's an interesting way to put it, making it about the personal power and vanity of Norquist.

Norquist seems to think that he can keep almost all the GOP in line with a threat to primary those who falter. We shall see. I predict that Norquist won't have important sway. Many Republicans will break from their pledge. They may work out the math of who shoulders the burden of voting for a tax deal (those senators not facing reelection in 2014), and those who get the safe, anti-tax vote. But a tax increase of some sort will pass.

Single-issue boogie men like Grover Norquist will pass away. The problems in this country are too complex and too pressing to let single-issue pressure groups call the shots. It's not just my view--that's the election result. Norquist is doomed already. He's still screaming as he hangs on by his fingernails, but his grip is failing, and he's going to fall... very, very soon.

Image: newser.com

Extras. Comments about Chambliss in the Atlanta Journal are mostly negative, in  these two veins: he's a sell-out, or too-little-too-late. Here's the most perceptive: "Grover will find an obedient robot to run against Chambliss. Georgia’s voters are predominantly morons who will do as Fox News and Rush tell them to do." Perhaps Chambliss will be retiring in 2014, and that's why he's making the sacrifice now that relieves pressure on other GOP senators.

The Weekly Standard is trying to line up challengers already. Whoa, I'm scared... I interpret this as maneuvering in the conservative media. Some outlets are trying to keep the pressure on. Others will give GOP officials an escape hatch. That's another prediction. I'll watch for how it plays out in the conservative media.