Clown show: The Arizona audit

Running list from the Secretary of State. 

PR/spin from the AZ senate here. 

Made-up numbers in the final report.

Ok, those are the links. Here's the short version and I'll post this very belatedly. The GOP idiots in AZ went with the Trump lies that the election was stolen, and tried to find the evidence of it in their state. Since they don't actually know the safeguards in elections, or they're lying bitches, the GOP state senators voted to confiscate all the ballots from Maricopa Country and recheck them. And since they didn't have a plan about how to forge evidence, they had to report that the numbers from the original count were good--well within the margin of error for counting ballots. 

Lesson 1: It's hard to prove rubbish is true. Or maybe impossible. 

Lesson 2: If you're not willing to totally lie, cheat, and forge evidence, you're going to disappoint the audience that doesn't care about truth and reality. 

Unfortuantely, the GOP in AZ don't seem much smarter for this experience. 

Image: seattletimes.com

More great assorted links

I'm a fan of history especially history that helps explain the world I live in today. One piece I got to see personally was the science-led ban on chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). I did independent study on the issue while in college in the late 70s, and it's fascinating to look back. Back then, science was more respected and not just a ping pong ball in adversarial politics. 

A great, passionate talk about race relations in the US. Insight after insight. Watch and learn so much that you need to learn. 

Unusual mail-in ballot numbers in Wisconsin. Probably some fraud, but not huge amounts. And during covid, nursing homes were making sure residents got to vote. But that makes sense because residents weren't getting visits. 

Explanation of US oil production and the effects of covid. Demand cratered, pumping didn't slow, the market was over saturated, prices cratered, producers went bankrupt, production dropped sharply. 

The view from Twitter employees on the Musk takeover. Nervous. (Funny, this one fell apart, but here's a historical record.)

Fact-checking the 'blockbuster' expose movie about voter fraud. The premise is very weak--the Dems supposedly had 2000 ballot harvesters, based on cell phone tower ping data. 

The military has a problem with white supremacists. But according to some conservatives, the military is actually trying to censor conservatives. Here are some cases. 

Mark Esper, former Secretary of Defense, describes how Trump was unfit to be president. Maybe compare that with Rick Scott's reasons for calling Biden unfit. 

How were voting rights for black people secured? It was a long process, where the federal government ignored the problem for years despite having the mandate right in the 14th amendment to enforce those rights. 

A pilot project sent mental health teams to respond to minor police calls in Denver. It was successful, so maybe we'll see more diverse response teams become more common rather than relying so much on police. 

An software engineer at Google has been suspended for sharing private information. It concerns his opinion that an artificial intelligence (AI) application has achieved sentience. That puts the engineer into an ethical dilemma.

Image: abcnews.go.com

Was I prepared for what happened at the Capitol?

I knew Jan. 6 was going to be a big day. As with the Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville, the fans were planning to turn out. This wasn't going to be a flop. It was going to be major. 

I wrote to a friend that I was going to make a shopping run in the evening unless things went 'batshit crazy.' That's what I wrote Tuesday, Jan. 5. 

By Jan. 7 or later, I was trying to recapture what my expectations were. Here's what I've been able to reconstruct.

Background on rallies

There had been a very large Trump rally on Nov. 14 that was overwhelmingly peaceful. It could have been like that, but I didn't think it would stay that calm. After all, Trump had been gearing up the rhetoric, and appeared to be getting more reckless instead of more resigned. The prior Saturday, Trump called the Secretary of State of Georgia to pressure him to find 17,800 votes and give the election to Trump. This was nuts for a number of reasons. 

1. The Secretary of State had been vocal about the issues, how he had investigated them, and how very little fraud was found. This included a hand recount and a second machine recount.
2. It was too late. The vote results had been certified by all the powers in Georgia, so it was official.
3. The Electors had already met and voted. 
4. There wasn't any time for reversing the certification and having a new certification giving the votes to Trump. 

Getting desperate?

So it was clear that Trump wasn't bowing to the inevitable. On Monday, Jan. 4, he floated the idea that Mike Pence would do the right thing and throw out Biden votes. Again, Trump ignored the evidence that Mike Pence would do no such thing. The idea had already been floated, and Pence was clearly not embracing it. 

So Wednesday was the day that Congress would certify the votes from the Electors, and Joe Biden would officially be the next president. 

Trump seemed to hope that he had a way to prevent that, but was there a legal route left to do that? All legal routes, except a very farfetched one, had been exhausted. The farfetched legal route was that Electoral College votes would be challenged in Congress, the challenges debated, both houses of Congress would throw out enough votes so that Biden didn't meet the 270 vote threshold, and then both houses of Congress would vote to declare Trump the winner. 

Did Trump really believe he and his mass rally of supporters could influence Congress to that degree? Maybe Trump believed, maybe he didn't. 

Maybe Trump didn't care about whether the route was legal or not. Maybe he would have been happy to have his mob take hostages and demand that Congress award the presidency to Trump. Certainly some of the mob were planning to do that. It's ironic because they also claimed to be fighting for the Constitution at the same time they were clearly using force and violence to exert their will upon Congress. That's not very constitutional. 

So what did I really expect? 

I expected Trump supporters to surround Capitol Hill. I expected a lot of shouting and grandstanding. I didn't expect that they would break in and have mobs roaming through the Capitol. But my definition of 'batshit crazy' was mobs holding hostages and demanding that Congress declare Trump president. Also possibly kidnapping members of Congress from their homes, on the way to the Capitol, or family members of Congress people. I didn't think it was likely to go that far, but it was on my radar. 

And Trump's mobs got 80% of the way there. However, they didn't take hostages, and they didn't get to make demands based on holding hostages. They probably would have done this, but the Capitol police weren't going to allow them to do that. The police would shoot to kill before they would allow hostages to be taken. So it was the strength of the police, and their willingness to use deadly force, that prevented the worst batshit scenario. 

But not just the police. The mobs weren't armed for the most part, and they weren't planning to use deadly force. The use of force by the police drew a line that the mob wasn't willing to cross. The next time there's a mob like this, they will most likely know in advance that they are have to cross that line. 

Cyborg with zipties for distinguished members of Congress

Image: cbsnews.com

The plans to keep Trump in the White House

(Sorry, catching up with backlog.)

This isn't easy because Trump didn't win enough states to win the Electoral College. So there have been other schemes. Lots of lawsuits trying to change the election results in states where the vote was close. Appeals to states where the GOP is the majority of the legislature to stop the usual procedures for appointing electors and substituting Trump-loyal electors instead. Trump calling the governor of Arizona as he's signing the certification (to threaten or plead????). Telling the governor of one state to call a special session of the legislature. States suing other states for how they ran their elections. Other states, Trump, and over 100 members of Congress signing on to the suit ( ...which was denied by the Supreme Court). Oh, did I forget to say disenfranchisement on a colossal scale? Some rallies, but not that many or anything really huge. 

Since it's after Dec. 14, the electors of the Electoral College have met and given Biden 306 votes versus 232 to Trump. The attempt to get Trump-loyal electors in place, or prevent Biden electors from being certified failed. Biden made it to 270. 

The last chance is an objection to the joint session of Congress on Jan. 6. If a member of the House and Senate both object, each chamber has to listen to the objection and vote whether or not to accept the objection. Some loyal folks think this will work and Trump is pushing on senators to get in line. In preparation for some states being overturned one way or another, self-appointed electors for Trump have formed delegations. Is martial law being considered? There are numerous reports of it, and Lin Wood and Sidney Powell are pushing it. But there are also denials. Trump himself isn't keeping a cool head, but is turning on everyone. 

And there's yet another legal-route attempt, this time by Louie Gohmert and others. He opines that the VP (as president of the Senare) has the power to dismiss electors and choose other electors. Really? That sounds very dictatorial to me. I don't think that was the intention of any of the laws. Mike Pence didn't sign on to this thinking either, even though Gohmert gave him the opportunity. 

Image: nbcnewyork.com

Extras. Trump gave his 'most important speech ever' trying to tell how the election was stolen. Too bad the same claims didn't work in court. But for his followers, he's a beacon of hope and ....truth. That's sad. 

Most embarrassing document ever created by a White House staffer. The article also has some good stats on the election. And another superlative: the dumbest lawsuit filed about the election. 

Ron Johnson, senator from Wisconsin, had a somewhat heated but very ineffective hearing about election fraud. Claims of fraud just don't seem to have any traction after they've been rejected by a dozen judges. They need something fresh, new, powerful, and true, but none of that is happening. Too bad Johnson didn't have this GOP leader from PA testify. She said that her house would be bombed if she publicly refused to do Trump's bidding, so she's keeping it quiet rather than pointing out how unconstitutional his demands are. 

Trump is so busy trying to overturn the election that he didn't pay attention to the looming government shutdown if spending bills weren't passed. Same with any covid relief bill. The House and Senate finally managed to do it, and Trump belittles it. What was he doing all that time? Then he ended up signing the bill after days of acting like he wasn't going to. 

Trump tried a hail-Mary pass at strong-arming the Secretary of State of Georgia. It didn't work, but it was recorded and leaked. A couple days later, a top GA elections official debunked many of Trump's claims of fraud. 

Column on the big picture. The details about Trump are ludicrous or chilling. But the big picture is of a person who should never have been president, but was. Even more reported: Trump tried to get DOJ officials to declare the election 'corrupt,' and then Trump would execute some unnamed maneuver. 

There are examples of people taking responsibility. Here's one--the official in charge of vaccine distribution incorrectly interpreted the amount of vaccine that would be available for use, and had to tell the states that were getting less. 

Bizarre Voter Fraud Tale

This is incredible, and I'm going to tell it from memory. Hugo Chavez, late dictator of Venezuela, had voting software created where he could control the outcome by flipping votes to whichever candidate he wanted. This software can incorporated into most of the voting software in the US due to the potential for making money from humongous bribes. 

We know this because of the intrepid work of Sidney Powell, one-time lawyer to Mike Flynn (of Russia scandal fame). She's blown the lid off this scandal with honest-to-God affidavits, and maybe a few reports from some choice security firms. 

The software has back doors that allow people to hack in, decide how many votes to flip, etc. They can do it via the internet or thumb drives. On Election Day, the vote flipping was going along fine, except that Trump was getting a landslide of votes, and it was more than the algorithm could handle. So all the machines had to be shut down early in the morning of Nov. 4. On their startup later that day, huge number of votes were entered for Biden. That's how he stole the election.

There was also lots of internet traffic involved that went through Spain. Then, something-something to a CIA-managed server farm in Frankfurt. Luckily patriots uncovered all of this, and a crack team of special ops troops raided the server farm, captured the servers, and five were killed in the operation. This was covered up by saying they were killed in a helicopter accident in the Sinai. But the good guys captured the servers, and they'll be releasing the data showing the fraud sometime--it's not clear when. By the way, the crack troops were the 305th battalion, which is a bit odd because it's an entry-level training battalion for those going into military intelligence. 

Mike Flynn has been closely in touch with the good guys, which include retired general Thomas McInerney. Most of this information came from him. Both he and Flynn are also Qanon supporters. So these folks involved with this conspiracy theory are also gullible or opportunists who are big into Qanon shit. In some ways, that's good because it's easier to show how little credibility they deserve. 

Part of this story got blown because a name was left in the metadata in one of the affidavits. It was supposedly from a high-level military intelligence officer, but was actually from an ex-Army officer who had worked in the vehicle pool, and had attended (and washed out of) the 305th battalion. Ah, some pieces come together. 

I'm concerned that I left out some bizarre piece of this concoction, but I'll have to add it later. 

Image: flipboard.com

Extras. Possibly related, but I'm not sure. It's about software and votes shifting, and involves this gang of folks who have been pushing these stories non-stop, so close enough. Antrim County in Michigan had some sort of software problem, and it was investigated by an uber-partisan group. The real problem was failure to follow procedures, like using the correct version of the ballot when setting up counting.  

Update 12/20/20. Newsmax, Fox Business, and other media are backpedaling on their reporting about voting machines. It's because of threatened suits, and hotshot lawyers signing on. Here is Newsmax sharing some facts in a very sheepish way. 

Update 1/15/21. The American Thinker issued a retraction including this mea culpa: It was wrong for us to publish these false statements. We apologize to Dominion for all of the harm this caused them and their employees. We also apologize to our readers for abandoning 9 journalistic principles and misrepresenting Dominion’s track record... We regret this grave error.

Extra, very belated. Sometime after the election, a conservative activist in Colorado (named Joseph Oltmann) started telling a story about infiltrating an online meeting of Dominion Voting folks. Says a Dominion exec said some very incriminating stuff, but goshdarnit, he didn't record it! I lost track of this bizarre little story, and then found a link. Saved now for posterity. 

Fraud claims in Michigan and other states

Fucking Trump (yes, there will be rants in this post) has been claiming rampant voter fraud for years, and he has a chorus of Republicans and conservative media backing him up. None of them are honest about the level of fraud or where it is. Fraud is a convenient claim, so helpful for saying 'we deserve this' and 'the other guys are evil.' 

This year, with covid, it was clear that many people would be mailing in their ballots. It was completely predictable, but the GOP had to turn it into a divisive issue, where mail-in ballot were suspicious, loaded with fraud, and unAmerican. 

Trump summoned GOP lawmakers from Michigan to the White House. Some folks were panicked about this, but the signs mostly indicated that the Michiganders wouldn't succumb to pressure. A long article about many chapters in the Michigan saga, including rallying the screamers for ballot-counting the next, and taking a stand on certification. Many Republicans hate anyone who isn't working on overturning the results, so principles be damned.

The state election canvassers were facing an unprecedented choice: certify or venture into unknown territory. Another story about the canvassers. More on the initial counting of ballots. And the BBC looks into claims of 10K dead voters and find that the list is bogus and full of holes... and live people. 

In a moment of ironic levity, a star witness of ballot processing in Detroit repeatedly spoke over a Republican representative at a formal hearing, insulted him, becoming a real-life example of a character from Saturday Night Live. The real-life caricature is unbowed and unrepentant. 

A judge in Michigan was petitioned to stop a certification, and he told each side to submit their 7 strongest affidavits. You know, all those thousands of great affidavits proving the fraud? Well, the Michigan GOP either chose very badly or their affidavits were junk, because they lost. It turns out that affidavits are evidence, but not necessarily solid, credible evidence. Ooops. Speculation doesn't count, it seems. 

The Pennsylvania federal circuit court of appeals blasts Trump's claims and reminds him and his lawyers that you don't invalidate votes like that. We are Americans and our votes matter. In Pennsylvania, there have been so many lawsuits its hard to keep up with all of them. Some have tried to throw out a few ballots, but that doesn't help much, so most suits have tried to throw out A LOT of ballots. So the arguments are that fairness requires millions of votes get thrown out. These suits have not gotten too far. Some GOP legislators are trying to be put aside the election. Again, go against the tradition and throw out the election. It's not getting a warm welcome. 

In depth - Accusation for pre-printed ballots for Biden in Georgia

So an experienced poll observer told about a group of ballots that appears to be pre-printed with votes for Biden. Hmmmm, an experienced worker is much more credible than some new screamer who doesn't know what's normal and what isn't. She is called to testify at court, but doesn't say much except that the ballots were pristine instead of having worn edges. (Similarly in her affidavit.) However, in the video she embroiders on the claims, saying that the vote markers looked the same for all the ballots, but she didn't make that claim while under oath. 

Even more interesting is the seven hours of hearings by a Georgia subcommittee. A great cross-section of fraud and other complaints. 

Image: pennlive.com

Extras. A roadmap of the strategy the GOP might use to overturn the election. Live updates of the recount in two counties in Wisconsin. The margin was tight, but Wisconsin rules are even tighter, so Trump's campaign had to pay for it. An explanation on why a signature check in Georgia is worthless. It is also not legal under current law. More information about signature checking in Georgia. A Georgia legislator finds the names of constituents she personally knows on a list of supposed fraudulent voters. A monitor hired by the state to watch Fulton County talks a bit about what he saw. 

A mathematical theory debunked. A typical claim from Trump, being divorced from reality. Another claim, that 80 million ballots were sent out. It was 44 million, and that included California and states that have had vote-by-mail for years. 

Wisconsin was the only state not to settle all its (in-state) issues by safe harbor day. Maybe I'll have to post a followup if it gets interesting. Oh, and at least one WI legislator thinks the legislature should choose the electors instead of following the usual process. I wonder what party he's in? 

Arizona. The GOP in Arizona is split between the crazies and the not-crazies. The governor and a bunch of others are now being reviled for following the election laws instead of following the true law of doing what helps Trump. Some important articles about the Arizona recount sponsored by the deluded and partisan AZ senate Republicans. It starts. Not looking so good. The election board of Maricopa County explains elections. And gives even more technical details. 

What was the fraud complaint? Could you explain that please? And another. And two more. 

A transcript of a news conference that Giuliani gave with Sidney Powell, who had promised a 'kraken' that would crash many states and the entire election. Her beliefs were a mishmash including vote-switching software from Venezuela, a countrywide algorithm that was supposed to switch just enough votes, servers in Germany, and thousands for people who bought the voting software with plans to benefit by guaranteeing their wins. Update on kraken failure to engulf states. Monsters of the deep aren't what they used to be. 

A Florida attorney solicits Floridians to move to Georgia to swing their senate seats in the runoff. However doing that is illegal. Ooooops. 

A collection of the disinformation being circulated. A kitchen sink of the evidence by the evidence believers themselves. 

Major report from the GOP-lead Michigan Senate. No major fraud. Sorry guys, couldn't find it. A judge in Michigan grills Trump attorneys at a hearing about allegations of misconduct. 

MyPillow CEO kept claiming he had proof of voting machine tampering, but it was a bunch of bullshit. 

Summary of the election lawsuits where evidence was presented and was the basis for the decisions. 

Update 5/13/2022. The Secretary of State that Trump tried to strong-arm into 'finding' extra Trump votes is dedicated to finding fraud--that is, real fraud or malfeasance. He found about 2000 cases of non-citizens registering and 4 cases of ballots cast for dead people. 

Update 12/14/23. The slate of fake electors in Michigan is being investigated in public hearings. Some details of the plans and what occurred. Smart ones stayed away or got covid and couldn't attend. 

Update 7/27/26. Trump had ballots subpoenaed and seized from Atlanta, GA (Fulton county). Lawfare critiqued the affidavits for the warrant. Another helpful link -- to the report of the GA Secretary of State into 5 voter fraud complaints. Conclusion: No violations found. 

HALLELUJAH, WE DUMPED TRUMP

This is a dump right now. Maybe I'll fix it up, maybe not.

Before the election, there was early voting and mail-in voting. The GOP, was usually, tried to juice up their edge by suppressing votes, or asking for votes (even >100K votes in Texas) to be thrown out. The answer was a resounding NO. 

On Election Day, there appeared to be three scenarios: A clear Biden win, a close election that Biden wins, or a nail-biter that Trump wins. Trump delusionists thought there could be a landslide for Trump, but I never bought into that. 

Some prognosticators predicted an easy victory for Biden, over by midnight, or maybe by 9:00PM EST. That wasn't the case, which was clear when results started coming in for Florida with Trump winning there. So opinion polling was off again, with Trump support underrepresented. There were suggestions that Trump supporters frequently lied to pollsters, considering pollsters to be part of the deep state-establishment elite, and therefore the enemy. 

Early leads, later losses

Trump had big early leads in many states, including Michigan and Virginia. I went to bed having seen Virginia turn. I woke up to a somewhat brighter picture, but no certainty. Iowa was decisively red, which wasn't a surprise at that point. Minnesota was blue. Wisconsin was close, but blue. Michigan was turning blue. Nevada was close, but the outstanding vote was going to favor Biden, and he consistently gained there. Arizona had Biden with a good margin. Pennsylvania was a nail-biter. Georgia was an unexpected bonus as it edged blue. North Carolina didn't have the blue surges others did, but turned from blue to red to redder. 

With the close margins and numbers of mail-in ballots, it was a matter of waiting for the counts. Walk-in voting is easier. Identification is usually done on the spot with few snafus. Processing mail-in ballots is more labor intensive, and it took a long time due to the high numbers of ballots. Counting went on through Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Some folks looked at the numbers and decided on their own on Friday night that Biden had won. News organizations didn't call the win for him until Saturday near noon, when many called Pennsylvania as a Biden win, pushing him over 270 for the win. Biden was later declared the winner in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, giving him 306 electoral votes versus Trump's 232. (Few links, mostly from vivid recent memory.)

The claims that the election was being rigged started well before the election, and was a claim Trump made before the 2016 election too. It was just as bad in 2020 even though it was well known that there were lots of mail-in ballots and they would likely favor Biden heavily. This was all known beforehand, but some people still screamed that the election was being stolen even though valid votes were being fairly and legally counted. 

"Irregularities"

While the Biden supporters partied, the Trump supporters fumed about cheating, irregularities, pallets of ballots delivered in the night, software switching votes, how counting should have stopped at midnight, poll watchers fooled and not allowed to watch the counting, and other charges. 

A postal worker in PA claimed that ballots still in the post office on Wednesday morning were stamped with Tuesday postmark and shipped to counting centers. Project Veritas recorded the claim. Postal inspectors grilled the whistleblower, and his story changed. Supposedly he recanted, but then recanted again. It's still not clear where it stands, though it's not being pushed hard, so it looks like it was opportunistic on the part of the postal worker. Oh, did I forget to mention that he started a GoFundMe page that collected $136k? Being a whistleblower hero pays, so there's incentive there. 

Trump's legal team are like the Keystone Kops. Rudy Giuliani's staff mistakenly booked a press conference at the Four Seasons Landscaping business instead of the Four Season hotel. The neighboring businesses were particularly ironic: an adult toy store and a crematorium. 

Another center of fraud accusations was attorney Sidney Powell, who kept pushing fraud stories. One was about identical ballots are marked only for Biden. That one seems to fizzle. Then it morphed into software shenanigans (with Venezuelan election-stealing software) and pallets of ballots. She colorfully claimed to have so much information it was like a firehose, and that she'd soon be 'releasing the kraken' -- that mythical monster of immense power. Many of us awaited this release, and waited, and waited. At this point, I'm still waiting, though I think it will as much bullshit as thinking they had a real kraken. 

Georgia was a sobering and hopeful story. The Secretary of State is a loyal Republican, but most loyal to clean, fair elections. He announced a mandatory recount due to the margin of less than 0.25% difference, or around 14k votes out of 4.9 million. He stayed committed to fair elections was he was insulted by Trump and numerous other Republicans. The recount turned up errors amounting to several thousand votes, but no vast cheating. 

Image: alabamanews.net

Extras. Biden won by being cautious, caring, and solid, and emphasizing a sober approach to the covid pandemic. Exit polling showed Biden doing well with young voters, older voters, minorities, and women. Independents broke for Biden in a sizable way. 

Close to final vote count:

81,283,098 (51.3%) to 74,222,597 (46.8%)

A poll worker with covid worked, and died a few days later. Uhhhh, this is what we wanted to avoid!!!!

An early article (Nov. 9) about Republicans standing up to Trump. Sadly, not enough of them. The abettors seems to be louder and more numerous. A senator can't say publicly that he thinks Trump is an asshole because that's political suicide. 

Very interesting links. Long but worth it.

 I've been negligent in keeping up with blogging. Mea culpa. But here's lots of good stuff.

Reports on the Trump campaign. Feeling confident in August. Trump's appeal to white working class remains strong. People who think Trump is nuts, including Hannity. Voting suppression shenanigans--just one of many tactics to reduce the turnout. Republicans getting more worried. Less cowardice towards Trump--a bit less. Unfocused campaign near the end--maybe the emphasis is simply on bluster. Details of targeting black voters in 2016 for discouragement.

In-depth reports about how Biden chose Kamala Harris. I'm very interested in decision-making processes. This reports a budding connection. I hope that's a good sign. 

Other tidbits about Biden. A long piece focusing on personality and character. Like many Dem campaigns, Biden is late with a strategy for Latino voters. The Biden campaign goes gross on drug test request. (Don't talk about urine PLEASE!!!!)

Heading toward fascism? A refugee from a fascist country warns the US that we are definitely headed in that direction. Not all hyperbole by any means. 

Real data on voter fraud. It's not clear that the methodology is strong, but (if so) this should be getting more attention. Actual numbers on dead people voting and double voting. Nothing on ballot harvesting which is the biggest form of fraud. 

Dangers in refusing abortions. A Michigan senator tells how his wife was refused an abortion for a failed pregnancy that put her health and life in danger. Rigidity is winning over realism and women's lives. 

Snapshot USA. Portland police allow left and right whackos to fight. Illogical complaint about NYC restrictions on restaurant. Consider necessity versus option. No rational person literally believes Tucker Carlson. That is the conclusion of a judge in dismissing a slander suit against him. 

Covid relief 2.0. Seems to be permanently stalled. This is another case of GOPers have no ability to handle difficult negotiations. 

Global warming factors. Broken down and explained very clearly. It would be much hotter by now if the sunspot activity had a normal cycle rather than a very low cycle. We got lucky, but humans are fucking our climate. 

Image: abcnews.go.com

Reviewing voter suppression

(Catching up on posts started a while ago. This one originally written around 5/27/20.)

Even though Republicans have discovered and are chasing a new terrifying form of voter fraud (fraud from mail-in ballots), I'm still parrying claims that they weren't doing any other kind of voter suppression, which is also known as making it harder for some (poor/old/students) to vote. So I quickly found some excellent sources on this information:

From The Guardian, an excellent state-by-state listing.

People having a tough time getting the required ID - two articles.

I'm looking forward to when the New York Times will let me read this article about Alabama.

Image: wfae.org

May links

Religious right takeover. After about 40 years of trying, the religious right is taking over and abolishing the right to a safe, legal abortion. Conservatives used to pay lip service to pro-life groups, and those groups got fed up and marshalled their strength, electing someone malleable like Trump and his openly pious VP, Mike Pence. Snippet: More rights for workers to opt out of tasks due to conscience and religious belief. Will patients not receive care because of it?

Abortion actions in states. Many states are changing their abortion laws. Some are pushing to overturn Roe v Wade, and others are updating to allow late term abortion for therapeutic reasons. Related: an argument that men cause all pregnancies. Fun to read, but does it hold together? And an article and interesting comment thread about stealthing, which is secretly removing a condom during sex.

Mueller as witness. A profile of what to expect, as though we couldn't predict it from what we know already. Sober, honest, rule-based, tough, consistent. <---- Well, that item is now defunct. Mueller has said that his report is his testimony, and he has nothing to add. And finally a cogent conservative view on why Mueller was wrong to hint so broadly that Trump obstructed justice. I've read so much junk from conservatives, it's a relief to find something intelligent.

The spies don't like it. Trump has appointed Bill Barr, the Attorney General, to decide what documents to declassify related to unfair investigations into the Trump campaign. I don't trust Barr to be impartial or the intellligence servicess to be candid, but the truth almost always comes out.

Shutting down free press in Europe. Scary. Not by killing journalists, but by buying up the media outlets.

Maneuvering over impeachment. Impeachment will help Trump, so he's now trying to goad the Dems into it. I'll have to check what GOP mouthpieces are saying. Maybe their 'coup' rhetoric will be replaced with claims that the Dems are impeaching Trump, even when they aren't. It's obviously theater and moot because the Senate won't convict. In related news, Trump had a temper tantrum, blew up a negotiations session that was supposed to work toward an infrastructure bill, and then ranted in the Rose Garden. But it was all planned, with the podium and signs already set up.

My obsession with fake claims of voting fraud. Another entry in this category. Texas tries to remove non-citizens and screws up. Let me guess--are minorities the main target again?

Conservative fake news industry. For outright lies, conservative media wins hands down. Someone faked a video of Pelosi slurring her words, and the rubes ate it up. In related news, the Washington Examiner had a headline about Buzzfeed having to correct a tweet. It was a small correction, hardly worth a newstory or headline. I wonder when the Examiner will correct its own false stories, like the one I write about here.

Developing nations. An overview of nations with different levels of development and different obstacles. A good encapsulation, with helpful examples.

Is India headed to another civil war? Trouble is simmering, and might explode.

Important link on server forensics. Damn those stupid talking points. The DNC didn't need to turn over servers to the FBI according to an actual computer expert. And another article about the forensics of the computer hacking investigation, though ultimately the info comes from the same source.

Still available by mail, no matter what state

Image: thecut.com

Voter fraud in California?

While there was clear and definite absentee ballot fraud in North Carolina, Republicans were doing this accusation thing about California. In California, voting by mail is so common that 43% of votes are tendered that way. So 43% of the vote isn't counted on election night, but counted afterward.

Republicans were hinting that elections were stolen even though they knew how and when ballots would be counted. Well, no surprise there. The Republicans are inveterate liars when it comes to elections. They spread so many falsehoods that anyone else would be embarrassed.

California has allowed some questionable practices, though. It might be extremely easy to illegally register to vote in California, or was a few years ago. I went the website, gave an out-of-state address, and the process didn't grind to a halt. I might have become a California voter except that I bailed before committing a fraudulent act. If there was any checking, it wasn't evident.

Now California is allowing people without a close connection to pick up absentee ballots from voters at their homes, and turn in or mail in those ballots.This is called 'ballot harvesting.' I don't know what safeguards they have to prevent fraud. Do the ballots even have to be sealed before being picked up? It's not clear.

Considering how frequently California is accused of high levels of non-citizens registered, one would think that California would be conducting transparent checks of its voter rolls, and announcing the findings. But that's not what they've done. Instead, there is very little about verification that their systems work. In the absence of data, Democrats tend to shrug, and GOPers continue to go apeshit. Instead of assumptions, let's have some actual hard information, ok?

Image: sandiegouniontribune.com

Extras. Conservative media reporting on California absentee ballots regularly neglected to mention that ballots must be postmarked by election day to be valid. Other media outlets seemed to have no trouble mentioning this. I wonder why the discrepancy? Alas, my examples have disappeared.

Finally there is a real voter fraud scandal

Conservatives have been lying about voter fraud for nearly two decades. Or let me clarify. They have vehemently been making unsubstantiated claims repeatedly. Their goal seems to be to cast unwarranted doubt on any Democratic victories, and has nothing to do with telling the truth about election processes. So calling them liars is completely deserved.

Finally there is a big, undeniable voting fraud scandal. It has nothing to do with false impersonation or non-citizens voting. Instead, it involves the area that is most rife with fraud, which is absentee ballot voting. Why haven't the GOPers focused on this before? Because they're liars and were hoping to institute measures that nominally hurt Dem voters.

In this scandal, consultants for a GOP candidate running for a house seat hired a known local operative to round up absentee ballots. He paid relatives, neighbors, and friends to help with the work, which involved knocking on doors, getting people to sign the ballots, walking away with unsealed ballots, and filling them in later. Maybe I need to add 'allegedly.' However, there are numerous affadavits about the activities, including how the operative would get a $40K bonus if his candidate won. It looks very likely that a new election will be called. This is rare, but the level of fraud is substantial and the candidate thoroughly tainted. It would be travesty to certify the election, and it appears that will not happen, so a repeat election will be necessary.

This happened in North Carolina, but it could easily have happened elsewhere. The fraudsters are on the GOP side, but it could have been otherwise. However, make no mistake, the GOP chased other non-frauds and ignored this sort.

Will GOPers change their talking points about voter fraud? One would hope, but that wouldn't be typical of the GOP. They cling to their lies.

Image: ajc.com

October links: too many

GOPers learn to negotiate. The GOPers in Congress learned and managed to fund the government. No shutdown. Trump was out of the loop.

Lying scummy politics. A scummy, lying trick in a campaign ad. Chris Collins, indicted for insider trading, gives a completely false translation of his opponent's words.

A lying scientist. Cornell

Trump outrageous again. I think it's part of his plan. In love with NK dictator.

Revision of a critique on conservatism. Maybe it is a lot of paranoia. This is a very good read--maybe the most important in several months.

Dangers in US-China relations. Link.

Coerced sex is legal. If done by police.

Russia investigation update. A Trump operative considered using phony accounts. Buried in this article: sentencing for Manafort and Flynn. Does that mean the investigation is almost over? I'm guessing yes. You don't sentence your informants until they have fulfilled their side of the bargain.

Famous for 15 minutes. A mom screws up against #metoo. Funny.

California voter registration. Always curious about this black hole.

Climate change links.

Anti-democracy. Georgia puts voter applications on hold.

Antifa and Nazis are still fighting, but I lost the link.

Image: aip.org

April links

I was away for the month of March with only a tablet, and not in the mood for typing on that infernal non-keyboard. I did read a few interesting items, and a few more since I returned home.

Closing the racial achievement gap. According to Charles Murray, this should be impossible because it's inherent in the genomes. An intensive program in New York City has had very good results. However, skimming the published scientific paper, it's not clear that the gap was erased, just that they were heading that way.

North Carolina's blatantly discriminatory voting act. Struck down, but uggghhhh! This couldn't happen in the Supreme Court hadn't decided that the Voting Right Act was no longer needed. Well, that was a partisan decision, not an honest judicial finding. I read elsewhere that the legislation disallowed the types of IDs that were more common among blacks. Yes, very blatant.

Voter fraud investigation in California. I wonder a lot about California, partly because I nearly became a voter there but bailed out before I committed an actual illegal act. This investigation may be ongoing, but hasn't turn up much. However, I like to watch whatever I can in CA.

Korean strategies. From March. This story is a bit slow, but still an easy read and fairly informative on different ways to view the situation in Korea.

Nazi story. A profile of a leader of a white supremacy group that was involved in Charlottesville.

Unexpected interference in business. Suppose the socialism wasn't the worst enemy of business. Instead, it was a thin-skinned blowhard who ended up as president.

Capsule picture of what's wrong with Trump. This story rings so true to me. Trump as an impetuous glad-hander who doesn't know what he's doing.

Iran's presence in Syria. Very informative story about why Israel is bombing airfields in Syria, and who has missiles where.

Image: dailytarheel.com

Interesting factoids

My blog is now mostly links. But that doesn't mean I'm not thinking. I feel like I'm thinking as much as before. So I can't really explain why my writing has changed to these collections of short, link-based reflections.

Here are a bunch of lighter link that are still interesting.

Energy promise fulfilled? In Australia, a huge battery system is providing backup for when renewables faulty and storage for when the energy output is abundant. This is such an important step in making renewables primary in large-scale energy production.

Kick him when he's down. We can laugh and/or sneer at formerly famous alt-right jerk Milo Y__(whatever). Here's an article on his unpublished books and the editor's comments.

Hackable votes. This one is heavier: an article about how Georgia has very poor security for its electronic voting machines. It contains first-hand reports of problems and officials trying to cover them up.

Good news/bad news. A funny conundrum. Media has done very well under the Trump campaign and presidency. Viewership is up, profits are up. It could be very nasty (in financial terms) if Trump doesn't win in 2020.

Trump's mental condition. Hahahaha. Nearly everyone has an opinion, but this is the opinion of a trained neurologist.  I've had some training in neurology, so I notice many of the behaviors the neurologist mentions. I would add this: look for changes, particularly diminishing ability. As far as I can tell, Trump hasn't deteriorated, but we should be alert for the signs. This is a reasonable place for a bookmark to a lawyerly explanation for why impeachment hearings are warranted. I don't agree, but the case is well argued.

A journalist on our side. Maybe Trump, Bannon, or whoever thought Michael Wolff could be trusted to write positive fluff pieces, and they found out otherwise when he wrote Fire and Fury. This is the kind of piece that might have given them false hope. It's a sympathetic view of Roger Ailes. It also sounds like he flattered people's egos, basically conning the con men that staff the White House. I don't trust him to be fair and scrupulously accurate. However, he claims to have tapes of some interviews. Added fun!

Image: newsday.com

Links (2 of 2)

I lost 1-2 of the links I planned to show. Drat. But I also found others.

Final love letter to a spacecraft. The Cassini exploratory probe finished its life and mission, which was to send us data about Saturn and its moons. The craft was remotely instructed to crash into Saturn to be sure that it wouldn't contaminate the moons where native life might be possible.

Americans and their white president. A tour-de-force essay by Ta-nehisi Coates. He writes that whites of all kinds, not just working class, gave support to a candidate who reflected bigotry. The essay shows one way to view race relations, but I don't agree with it's the whole story. It's still significant that a black president was elected twice, and with more support than Trump got. Coates does present some chilling facts, however, such as a white felon running in the presidential primary against Obama, and getting a surprising number of votes. The Obama presidency has been difficult for many blacks because they've had to endure heightened disrespect.

More about North Korea. North Koreans have been completely immersed in the propaganda that their only purpose is to serve. That complicates both war and diplomacy. A high-ranking ex-officer suggests a naval blockade to change the dynamic. The comment section is a must-read.

Did voter fraud change this Senate election? That's a good question raised here. There are known weaknesses in New Hampshire election law. The numbers of people using out-of-state IDs were high enough in this very close election. This is plausible, but not enough evidence to say it happened.

US spending. Where the federal spending goes. I'm always looking for this info, so here's a link to a handy graph.

Driverless car crash. This summary and analysis points to the technology not being able to handle complex situations. The driver, however, was lulled into depending on the system. That would happen so easily.

Susan Rice, target of conservative smears. A lot of ugly accusations swirled around her as conservatives tried to win the news cycle when lots of Russia news was coming out. Now she's been cleared, but that information is mostly buried. Blowhard conservatives won't even remember that they defamed her. Amnesia is rampant there.

Migration issues confront Canada. Perhaps for the first time, Canada is dealing with mass migration that is poorly controlled. Will it be too much for this generous, empathetic nation?

Image: bloomberg.com

So many stories

I didn't publish this when I first started writing, and now there's been a flurry of stories to follow. Someday I may catch up on my writing, but not yet. However, I'm posting this belated piece today. 


Has Obamacare failed? This article shows pretty clearly that the answer depends on where you live. Some places, yes. Some places, the market is still doing well.

What to do in Afghanistan. Trump likes his top national security adviser McMaster, but disagrees with his plan for Afghanistan. So what will happen?

Voter fraud claims turn nasty. Imagine someone claimed you shouldn't be on the voter rolls. Let's say they lied about you, said you didn't live at your address, etc. Unfortunately, this happened statewide. Read about it.

Which states can't meet pension obligations? That's a good question. This article has one of the best graphs I've ever seen to show the answer. My state (Mass) - so-so. Not as bad as I feared.

Conservatives for riots? This article discusses how an associate of video sting con artist James O'Keefe tried to bribe a progressive organizer to arrange riots for Trump's inauguration. Sounds very sinister. Then I realized that she was probably trying to do a video sting, not actually trying to arrange false flag riots.

List of lies. Donald's. I don't want to go through the whole list, but it's good that somebody compiled one. I'm glad it wasn't me.

The 10-Day Diet. How to lose a bad choice for communications chief in 10 days. But before he's completely forgotten, read this hilarious piece about him calling up a reporter and forgetting to say the magic words "off the record" or "background." Some communications chief.

Another roundup of links

What to do about North Korea. This is very tricky, until you realize that the answer from history is obvious. Sometime last year I spent many hours listening to a podcast detailing the history of nuclear strategy. From that I learned that you don't go crazy and make a pre-emptive strike. You sit down and sanely wait things out. That's how the least number of people will die--hopefully none will die. A friend from South Korea was relieved to find an American who gets it. Here's a great article that explains most of the situation, and it only takes minutes to read. As someone who has spent hours and days reflecting, I endorse the article. As my friend says, a pre-emptive strike would mean the destruction of all of Korea. I vote for a waiting stance, and hoping no one fires the first missile.

Black Lives Matter. A good but painful article by Jamelle Bouie on the acquittal of a police officer who shot a black man. Bouie explains that there is fear, and fear will be considered a valid reason. Makes me wonder if there's any way out.

Meme goes viral and then the shit really hits the fan. Trump tweeted out a tasteless meme of himself beating up a CNN logo. A freelance journalist identified the original creator. The journalist is pelted with violent threats. There's pushback against CNN for threatening to out the creator and extorting an apology from him. (I'm sure about the ethics of CNN threatening to out him, but his apology reads like actual, honest, well-deserved contrition.) Finally, there is the Daily Stormer, laughing at the journalist and all the threats leveled at him. Basically, they act like threats are completely justified. That should be enough of this slimy underbelly of American culture.

Real assessment of fake news - retractions. Finally, a believable story of what CNN and other MSM have gotten wrong in the Russia megastory. It should come with a reminder of what they got right, like Flynn lying, Sessions lying, Russia hacking here, there, there, and there...

Voter fraud that looks for real. Here's a report on voter fraud in Virginia. Unfortunately, it's written for outrage instead of clarity. However, it looks like Virginia has had several thousand illegal votes in the past seven years, perhaps more.

How to punk Trump. This is a guide for Putin on how to fool our foolish president. I'm not overly worried because Donald doesn't stand by his promises, so any promises he foolishly makes to Putin won't matter.

Important ACA factoid. This is an important nugget. The medical risk profile of people in the individual market isn't getting worse. That means healthier people aren't being driven out--if this report is true. No death spiral yet. We will have to see how it pans out.

Image: speedwealthy.com

Fraud about voter fraud

From this article, I learned that I need to watch out for the GOP commission that is investigating voter fraud. Why? Because the head of the commission, Kris Kobach of Kansas, has already investigated voter fraud and found very little of it, but he hasn't publicized that finding.

It doesn't make sense to hide the info that voter fraud isn't common... unless you really like the narrative that it is common. Trump likes the narrative. Apparently, Kobach is fine with the narrative too because he's not pushing back against it. Maybe Kobach hopes he can find major fraud elsewhere, even if he didn't find it in Kansas. Personally, I'm not convinced that California, for example, does a good job policing its voter rolls. I tried to sign up to vote in California a few years ago, and probably would have been successful if I didn't bail at the last minute of the online process. No, I'm not going to commit the fraud of registering to vote in California just to find out if it's possible. Maybe California has tightened up, but I haven't seen any evidence of that, or any reports of what they do to investigate ineligible voters. To be clear, I have looked for evidence, but haven't found any published information about California's efforts to prevent voter fraud.

So maybe the commission investigating voter fraud will find a bit of fraud, or a moderate amount, or maybe even a huge amount (doubtful). So far, though, it's barely started, and it's already sputtering. Its first request for cooperation from the states was horribly mismanaged. The commission asked for private info such as birth dates and partial Social Security numbers without ensuring confidentiality. In fact, it was planning to have the information publicly available. They have got to be kidding--putting everyone's name, address, and birth date up in public. That's an immediate FAIL I have to wonder how professional this commission is going to be, and my hopes aren't high.

Image: youtube/Licitus Veritas Invictus

Extra. I didn't know that there has already been a nation-wide effort to investigate and punish illegal voting. The results: about 60 convictions in 4 years. Not millions, not thousands, not even hundreds. Pretty paltry. I hope this commission finds nearly the same number of illegal votes and is honest enough to report it without hyperbole.