Showing posts with label IQ. Show all posts
Showing posts with label IQ. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 11, 2018

April links

I was away for the month of March with only a tablet, and not in the mood for typing on that infernal non-keyboard. I did read a few interesting items, and a few more since I returned home.

Closing the racial achievement gap. According to Charles Murray, this should be impossible because it's inherent in the genomes. An intensive program in New York City has had very good results. However, skimming the published scientific paper, it's not clear that the gap was erased, just that they were heading that way.

North Carolina's blatantly discriminatory voting act. Struck down, but uggghhhh! This couldn't happen in the Supreme Court hadn't decided that the Voting Right Act was no longer needed. Well, that was a partisan decision, not an honest judicial finding. I read elsewhere that the legislation disallowed the types of IDs that were more common among blacks. Yes, very blatant.

Voter fraud investigation in California. I wonder a lot about California, partly because I nearly became a voter there but bailed out before I committed an actual illegal act. This investigation may be ongoing, but hasn't turn up much. However, I like to watch whatever I can in CA.

Korean strategies. From March. This story is a bit slow, but still an easy read and fairly informative on different ways to view the situation in Korea.

Nazi story. A profile of a leader of a white supremacy group that was involved in Charlottesville.

Unexpected interference in business. Suppose the socialism wasn't the worst enemy of business. Instead, it was a thin-skinned blowhard who ended up as president.

Capsule picture of what's wrong with Trump. This story rings so true to me. Trump as an impetuous glad-hander who doesn't know what he's doing.

Iran's presence in Syria. Very informative story about why Israel is bombing airfields in Syria, and who has missiles where.

Image: dailytarheel.com

Saturday, October 21, 2017

October roundup of links

GOP releases a tax plan outline summary thumbnail. In keeping with GOP inability to deal with reality including policy making, the tax plan is 5 pages stretched onto 9 pages. It doubles the standard deduction! Cheers! And quietly takes away exemptions. It's the usual cake for the wealthy with a bit of frosting for the middle class. A good list of misleading sales pitches.

Admitted fake news author dies.  He wasn't trying to be a con artist, but rather a satirist. But, according to him: "[Trump's] followers don't fact-check anything — they'll post everything, believe anything. His campaign manager posted my story about a protester getting paid $3,500 as fact. Like, I made that up. I posted a fake ad on Craigslist."

Fake news generators on Facebook outed by Facebook. At some point, most reality-based GOPers will have to stop pretending that there wasn't Russian interference in the US election. Facebook announced more than 3000 fake ads were purchased by accounts that appear to be Russian.

The new world order that didn't happen. Interesting thought. The world was supposed to gradually accept American values by acclamation amid peace and prosperity. Ooops, it didn't happen. The inevitable wasn't inevitable.

Amazing short summary of Islamic terrorism. Maybe it's too simple, but it holds together in my opinion.

The media misreports probability. The problem includes how media reports weather predictions and the 2016 election predictions. The fact of uncertainty isn't clearly conveyed.

Critique of  The Bell Curve. The 1994 book contained the thesis that blacks were genetically cognitively inferior to other groups. The book caused an uproar. Cognitive scientist formed a committee and wrote this critique of what was wrong with the book and its handling of evidence. I've had to refer to this critique several times.

Image: fivethirtyeight.com


Friday, October 5, 2012

Stupid voters

This is a perennial favorite in election years. If we could only eliminate the stupid voters, we'd have much better elections. The latest stupid voter is presented in a video where she declares she'll vote for Obama because he gave her a cell phone.


"Typical Stupid Voter for X"
Some people claim that this woman is a "typical Obama voter" but I doubt that so highly that I'd love to place a large bet on it. I doubt that 50% of Obama voters got free cell phones... or food stamps or housing vouchers. You can't win state-wide or nation-wide elections on a give-away platform in this country. However, a talking point for conservatives is the 47% vs the 53%. If you believe that the 47% automatically vote for Obama, all you have to add is 3.1% of self-supporting stupid liberals, and you (Obama and other liberals) are a winner. If this was true, it should scare the crap out of conservatives because those are hard numbers to defy. However, the GOP doesn't act overly scared about these demographics, so maybe they know that this talking point is an exaggeration.

But I digress. The point I want to make about stupid voters is that they are a strawman argument. It's so easy to find a picture or video of a stupid voter, then blast the strawman emblem you selected. If each side is represented by its dumbest advocate, we'd be hard pressed to choose. But that's not the way it really is. Instead, we decide based on the strongest arguments and the best advocates, not the worst ones.

We are still left with the problem of whether the stupid should be allowed to vote. The answer might be easy if you think the stupid voters are predominately on the other side. (I personally think the stupid are probably evenly divided. If it wasn't true, one party would gain a sustained advantage by not being the "stupid party" but that hasn't happened. Ergo, the stupid are evenly divided.)

 The Miracle of Testing
I look at this issue operationally: how would we check for stupidity and filter out the stupid from those who deserve to vote? We could reinstitute literacy tests and maybe add some math in there too. I don't think I object to that on principle, but I worry that once you institute a test, people start tinkering with it for other purposes, like winnowing out the voting pool. Also, what should the functional level actually be? I can see that basic reading comprehension at third grade level, but not a requirement for a higher level, like 10th grade. But I can see a lot of demagoguing that third grade or sixth grade is too low, and it should be higher. However, once you make it higher, you are definitely going to get bias effects.

These effects occur because the test authors are typically educated white middle class suburban college graduates, and they write questions that they can answer. Plenty of average or near-average inner city voters or rural voters might not pass such a test. Do we really want to disenfranchise those people? (I'm safe because I'm in the white-middle-class-suburban-college-graduate-demographic-who-will-write-the-test-questions, but occasionally I think about other people.)

If there is to be a minimal intelligence required to register to vote, then it better really be minimal, even frighteningly minimal. As I said before, the temptation to raise the standards would be present all the time, and it would be hard to continually resist it. Maybe that's why I think stupid voters should continue to be allowed to vote, because tinkering with this is an invitation onto a sure slippery slope. So let the stupid vote! It's easier than eliminating them and only them.

Image: sodahead.com

Sunday, April 15, 2012

My long response to Derbyshire's glib superiority

This is a difficult follow-up to my post on Derbyshire's insulting racist column that got him fired from National Review. I'm not going to take a standard line that Derbyshire's column was unforgivably racist and leave it at that. I'm going to try to explain what I think about the IQ data that Derbyshire points to in his column.

I hope that readers aren't offended by me writing about this data. It's certainly depressing that there is such an achievement gap between races in our country. We should be able to talk about it, though the way Derbyshire approached it, hurling one insult after another, is not conducive to discussion if you hope to include black folks or non-racists. If you want to discuss the issue with white supremacists, then Derbyshire's method is very effective, because they are almost the only ones defending him.

I'll be open and honest in stating that I'd prefer all races to be equal in intelligence, or nearly so. Claims of the superiority of 'us' and the inferiority of 'them' have led to an extreme amount of bloodshed. But my belief isn't based on wishful thinking and indifference to evidence. There are a number of reasons to question that the IQ data showing that blacks are less intelligent than whites, which is the conclusion Derbyshire and these white separatists seem to subscribe to.

Why this is hard to write
I'm not someone who will be hurt by what I have to say. I have the immunity of my racial/ethnic background (European), and my educational and professional success. I know I'm smart, I've demonstrated it often, and most people who know me acknowledge my intelligence. But if I talk about the intelligence of black people, I can hurt a lot of people who don't have that immunity. There's little doubt that many blacks have had painful experiences of being prejudged as less intelligent, or as shifty, criminal, or "up to no good." I don't want to add another painful experience to this thorny, nasty thicket.

That is why I hesitated to write this post at all. However, I decided to write so I could share what I've learned from the span of my experiences and research. It is a hopeful message.

Reminder: I shouldn't have to write this. The question itself is insulting, degrading, and dehumanizing.



Historical View - We've been wrong before
Think of the ethnic groups who have been accused of being inferior: Irish, Jews, Italians, Chinese, Germans,  and probably every one of them at some time or other. And, of course, women. In earlier times, claims about inferiority didn't have IQ tests to prop them up, so the critics used other criteria, such as lack of technological advancement. So the Romans thought the Germans were inferior because they didn't have architectural works. Two thousand years later, the Germans are bailing out these superior Italians (who are actually descended from eastern slaves, but they did build most of the later Roman architecture.)

The point is that technological superiority moves from group to group. That doesn't mean that declining people have become genetically stupid. Instead, often they've suffered a crisis due to war, famine, disease, or poor political policy. They've been cut off from their old knowledge and the new knowledge is growing elsewhere. Often they've had to concentrate on more basic tasks like fending off or buying off raiders, and trying to get enough food to live. It's hard to do well building a high civilization, or answering multiple-choice IQ questions correctly, in those circumstances. So, low accomplishments don't equate necessarily to low intelligence.

Reminder: I shouldn't have to write this. The question itself is insulting, degrading, and dehumanizing. The history of the world shows this over and over again.



Scientific View - Validity of IQ tests
I've read long ago (no link) that IQ tests are good predictors of success in school. They measure current aptitude for answering multiple choice questions, which correlates for many people to doing well in school or other reading-based jobs.

IQ tests don't actually measure intelligence--they merely try to. Intelligence has been very hard to quantify since it has broad outlines. Someone vastly superior in math may not be able to construct a readable sentence, for example. This has all been known for a long time, so most people dismiss IQ tests. (I certainly do. I scored 144 in my fourth grade IQ test, and I've doubted them every since. So does my brother, with his double-800 SAT scores.)

These were an educated layman's doubts. Then I got to work inside a testing company--one of those places that manufactures the test questions. What an eye-opening experience. The writers, editors, and producers of those tests are overwhelmingly 1)middle-class, 2)white, 3)educated in private colleges or universities, and 4)female. If that's your family background, and your family encourages you to get good grades, you have excellent preparation for test success. Doesn't seem like a level playing field, does it?


Genetics View - Variability
This is not my strong suit because I don't know much about population genetics. My guess is that competitive pressures in Africa ensured intelligence was favored. We've partially undone these competitive pressures all over the world, but only quite recently, and not recently enough to have changed the gene pool.

Here is an argument by someone with some expertise:
"As the population geneticist Richard Lewontin has been pointing out... heritability is a measure of the genetic contribution to a trait within a population, under a given set of environmental conditions. It is the result of many-to-many relationships among genes, environmental variables, and interaction terms." -- Article in online science forum.
I had trouble finding a readable source. Feel free to look for works by geneticists.

Reminder: I shouldn't have to write this. The question itself is insulting, degrading, and dehumanizing. Science (or religion) has been a favorite cudgel over and over again.

Cultural View - Patterns that enhance or undermine performance
This is close aligned to the historical view. How is it that Jews or Chinese were once thought inferior in intelligence, and now do better than average on IQ tests? Changes in barriers, changes in opportunities, and cultural environments that promote learning and test-taking skills.

It is truism, and probably true, that some aspects of US black culture actively works against academic success. It's also a truism that poor people in general do worse academically and have less interest in academic achievement, and proportionally, more blacks are poor than whites. Here is more than enough here to explain most or all of the gap in IQ scores, so this is where I place my bet.


 Reality check - What is my experience?
I've laid out many reasons to doubt that IQ test results equate with potential for intelligence. Perhaps more important to me is my own personal experience. I know statistical studies can be manipulated, so I also test theories against my experience, knowing that I will honestly question my precepts, and accept results even if I don't like them.

I grew up with very few blacks, so my experiences are from college on. Most of my impressions have been formed or tweaked in the past 12 years while working intensively in racially mixed workplaces. The blacks I've met range in intelligence on par with the whites I met, that is, a few highly intelligent, more quite intelligent, and a broad number of average intelligence. The workplaces have demanded a minimal of intelligence, so I don't work with the strata that is far below normal.

I suppose it's possible that I just haven't met many of this supposedly huge pool of lower intelligence blacks. However, I don't think so. Many of the blacks I've met and worked with have been from poorer families, so just the kind of stock that would be in the less intelligent ranks, but they and their children are average and above average.

I think the arguments that people make for the lower intelligence of blacks aren't based on a great deal of interaction with blacks, but instead are based on sparse interaction and second-hand news and impressions. Did Derbyshire actually talk about all the low IQ blacks he'd met over the years? No, he didn't. He probably has very few black acquaintances because he's been making sure that he avoids black hordes. So much for checking first-hand whether his thesis makes sense in light of real-life experience.

Should I believe someone else's statistics, or my own experience? I'm a reflective, thinking, honest person, so I'm going with my experience. But my historical, scientific, and cultural arguments are also a strong support.

Reminder: I shouldn't have to write this. The question itself is insulting, degrading, and dehumanizing. But I write to honor and defend all the wonderful people I've known who would be targets of this kind of attack. That includes my entire family.


Go ahead, play with the curves
 Graphic credit: oplcnews.com

A note about race. I used to believe in races. Now I'm convinced by my research that there aren't races. The four racial groups are a convenient social classification that doesn't capture the biological picture. 

Humans can, do, and have interbred forever. However, there are regional differences that are best thought of as ethnic, not racial. For example, we have light-skinned, red-haired Norwegians, Somalis with narrow noses and dark skin, Siberians who are stout and built like furnaces, and lots of gradations and mixes. You can't draw dividing lines and end up with four distinct groups because there are transitions at the borders, and there are a hell of a lot of border regions.  

There is one human race, and we are all part of it. Welcome if you dare enter. . . but you are already here.

 Extras:
"But what comes out in the end is claims like this: you’d have to go through 5 or 10 times as many blacks as whites to find someone who’s mentally equipped to be a teacher or an accountant. I find that very hard to believe."
  • I can't tell if this blogger is a racial realist, as they call themselves, or not. However, he seems to know a great deal about European migration patterns. The net kicks up gems sometimes.
  • My followup to this post is here. Basically, I feel that I was wrong to argue against Derbyshire's conclusion (that blacks are inferior) and not attack the premise. If you've been thinking that as you read this post, I agree--I'm just late to that realization. (I also added those reminders on 5/24/12.)