Thursday, December 17, 2020

Bizarre Voter Fraud Tale

This is incredible, and I'm going to tell it from memory. Hugo Chavez, late dictator of Venezuela, had voting software created where he could control the outcome by flipping votes to whichever candidate he wanted. This software can incorporated into most of the voting software in the US due to the potential for making money from humongous bribes. 

We know this because of the intrepid work of Sidney Powell, one-time lawyer to Mike Flynn (of Russia scandal fame). She's blown the lid off this scandal with honest-to-God affidavits, and maybe a few reports from some choice security firms. 

The software has back doors that allow people to hack in, decide how many votes to flip, etc. They can do it via the internet or thumb drives. On Election Day, the vote flipping was going along fine, except that Trump was getting a landslide of votes, and it was more than the algorithm could handle. So all the machines had to be shut down early in the morning of Nov. 4. On their startup later that day, huge number of votes were entered for Biden. That's how he stole the election.

There was also lots of internet traffic involved that went through Spain. Then, something-something to a CIA-managed server farm in Frankfurt. Luckily patriots uncovered all of this, and a crack team of special ops troops raided the server farm, captured the servers, and five were killed in the operation. This was covered up by saying they were killed in a helicopter accident in the Sinai. But the good guys captured the servers, and they'll be releasing the data showing the fraud sometime--it's not clear when. By the way, the crack troops were the 305th battalion, which is a bit odd because it's an entry-level training battalion for those going into military intelligence. 

Mike Flynn has been closely in touch with the good guys, which include retired general Thomas McInerney. Most of this information came from him. Both he and Flynn are also Qanon supporters. So these folks involved with this conspiracy theory are also gullible or opportunists who are big into Qanon shit. In some ways, that's good because it's easier to show how little credibility they deserve. 

Part of this story got blown because a name was left in the metadata in one of the affidavits. It was supposedly from a high-level military intelligence officer, but was actually from an ex-Army officer who had worked in the vehicle pool, and had attended (and washed out of) the 305th battalion. Ah, some pieces come together. 

I'm concerned that I left out some bizarre piece of this concoction, but I'll have to add it later. 

Image: flipboard.com

Extras. Possibly related, but I'm not sure. It's about software and votes shifting, and involves this gang of folks who have been pushing these stories non-stop, so close enough. Antrim County in Michigan had some sort of software problem, and it was investigated by an uber-partisan group. The real problem was failure to follow procedures, like using the correct version of the ballot when setting up counting.  

Update 12/20/20. Newsmax, Fox Business, and other media are backpedaling on their reporting about voting machines. It's because of threatened suits, and hotshot lawyers signing on. Here is Newsmax sharing some facts in a very sheepish way. 

Update 1/15/21. The American Thinker issued a retraction including this mea culpa: It was wrong for us to publish these false statements. We apologize to Dominion for all of the harm this caused them and their employees. We also apologize to our readers for abandoning 9 journalistic principles and misrepresenting Dominion’s track record... We regret this grave error.

Extra, very belated. Sometime after the election, a conservative activist in Colorado (named Joseph Oltmann) started telling a story about infiltrating an online meeting of Dominion Voting folks. Says a Dominion exec said some very incriminating stuff, but goshdarnit, he didn't record it! I lost track of this bizarre little story, and then found a link. Saved now for posterity. 

Wednesday, December 16, 2020

Fraud claims in Michigan and other states

Fucking Trump (yes, there will be rants in this post) has been claiming rampant voter fraud for years, and he has a chorus of Republicans and conservative media backing him up. None of them are honest about the level of fraud or where it is. Fraud is a convenient claim, so helpful for saying 'we deserve this' and 'the other guys are evil.' 

This year, with covid, it was clear that many people would be mailing in their ballots. It was completely predictable, but the GOP had to turn it into a divisive issue, where mail-in ballot were suspicious, loaded with fraud, and unAmerican. 

Trump summoned GOP lawmakers from Michigan to the White House. Some folks were panicked about this, but the signs mostly indicated that the Michiganders wouldn't succumb to pressure. A long article about many chapters in the Michigan saga, including rallying the screamers for ballot-counting the next, and taking a stand on certification. Many Republicans hate anyone who isn't working on overturning the results, so principles be damned.

The state election canvassers were facing an unprecedented choice: certify or venture into unknown territory. Another story about the canvassers. More on the initial counting of ballots. And the BBC looks into claims of 10K dead voters and find that the list is bogus and full of holes... and live people. 

In a moment of ironic levity, a star witness of ballot processing in Detroit repeatedly spoke over a Republican representative at a formal hearing, insulted him, becoming a real-life example of a character from Saturday Night Live. The real-life caricature is unbowed and unrepentant. 

A judge in Michigan was petitioned to stop a certification, and he told each side to submit their 7 strongest affidavits. You know, all those thousands of great affidavits proving the fraud? Well, the Michigan GOP either chose very badly or their affidavits were junk, because they lost. It turns out that affidavits are evidence, but not necessarily solid, credible evidence. Ooops. Speculation doesn't count, it seems. 

The Pennsylvania federal circuit court of appeals blasts Trump's claims and reminds him and his lawyers that you don't invalidate votes like that. We are Americans and our votes matter. In Pennsylvania, there have been so many lawsuits its hard to keep up with all of them. Some have tried to throw out a few ballots, but that doesn't help much, so most suits have tried to throw out A LOT of ballots. So the arguments are that fairness requires millions of votes get thrown out. These suits have not gotten too far. Some GOP legislators are trying to be put aside the election. Again, go against the tradition and throw out the election. It's not getting a warm welcome

In depth - Accusation for pre-printed ballots for Biden in Georgia

So an experienced poll observer told about a group of ballots that appears to be pre-printed with votes for Biden. Hmmmm, an experienced worker is much more credible than some new screamer who doesn't know what's normal and what isn't. She is called to testify at court, but doesn't say much except that the ballots were pristine instead of having worn edges. (Similarly in her affidavit.) However, in the video she embroiders on the claims, saying that the vote markers looked the same for all the ballots, but she didn't make that claim while under oath. 

Even more interesting is the seven hours of hearings by a Georgia subcommittee. A great cross-section of fraud and other complaints. 

Image: pennlive.com

Extras. A roadmap of the strategy the GOP might use to overturn the election. Live updates of the recount in two counties in Wisconsin. The margin was tight, but Wisconsin rules are even tighter, so Trump's campaign had to pay for it. An explanation on why a signature check in Georgia is worthless. It is also not legal under current law. More information about signature checking in Georgia. A Georgia legislator finds the names of constituents she personally knows on a list of supposed fraudulent voters. A monitor hired by the state to watch Fulton County talks a bit about what he saw. 

A mathematical theory debunked. A typical claim from Trump, being divorced from reality. Another claim, that 80 million ballots were sent out. It was 44 million, and that included California and states that have had vote-by-mail for years. 

Wisconsin was the only state not to settle all its (in-state) issues by safe harbor day. Maybe I'll have to post a followup if it gets interesting. Oh, and at least one WI legislator thinks the legislature should choose the electors instead of following the usual process. I wonder what party he's in? 

Arizona. The GOP in Arizona is split between the crazies and the not-crazies. The governor and a bunch of others are now being reviled for following the election laws instead of following the true law of doing what helps Trump. Some important articles about the Arizona recount sponsored by the deluded and partisan AZ senate Republicans. It starts. Not looking so good. The election board of Maricopa County explains elections. And gives even more technical details

What was the fraud complaint? Could you explain that please? And another. And two more

A transcript of a news conference that Giuliani gave with Sidney Powell, who had promised a 'kraken' that would crash many states and the entire election. Her beliefs were a mishmash including vote-switching software from Venezuela, a countrywide algorithm that was supposed to switch just enough votes, servers in Germany, and thousands for people who bought the voting software with plans to benefit by guaranteeing their wins. Update on kraken failure to engulf states. Monsters of the deep aren't what they used to be. 

A Florida attorney solicits Floridians to move to Georgia to swing their senate seats in the runoff. However doing that is illegal. Ooooops. 

A collection of the disinformation being circulated. A kitchen sink of the evidence by the evidence believers themselves. 

Major report from the GOP-lead Michigan Senate. No major fraud. Sorry guys, couldn't find it. A judge in Michigan grills Trump attorneys at a hearing about allegations of misconduct

MyPillow CEO kept claiming he had proof of voting machine tampering, but it was a bunch of bullshit. 

Summary of the election lawsuits where evidence was presented and was the basis for the decisions. 

Update 5/13/2022. The Secretary of State that Trump tried to strong-arm into 'finding' extra Trump votes is dedicated to finding fraud--that is, real fraud or malfeasance. He found about 2000 cases of non-citizens registering and 4 cases of ballots cast for dead people. 

Update 12/14/23. The slate of fake electors in Michigan is being investigated in public hearings. Some details of the plans and what occurred. Smart ones stayed away or got covid and couldn't attend. 

HALLELUJAH, WE DUMPED TRUMP

This is a dump right now. Maybe I'll fix it up, maybe not.

Before the election, there was early voting and mail-in voting. The GOP, was usually, tried to juice up their edge by suppressing votes, or asking for votes (even >100K votes in Texas) to be thrown out. The answer was a resounding NO. 

On Election Day, there appeared to be three scenarios: A clear Biden win, a close election that Biden wins, or a nail-biter that Trump wins. Trump delusionists thought there could be a landslide for Trump, but I never bought into that. 

Some prognosticators predicted an easy victory for Biden, over by midnight, or maybe by 9:00PM EST. That wasn't the case, which was clear when results started coming in for Florida with Trump winning there. So opinion polling was off again, with Trump support underrepresented. There were suggestions that Trump supporters frequently lied to pollsters, considering pollsters to be part of the deep state-establishment elite, and therefore the enemy. 

Early leads, later losses

Trump had big early leads in many states, including Michigan and Virginia. I went to bed having seen Virginia turn. I woke up to a somewhat brighter picture, but no certainty. Iowa was decisively red, which wasn't a surprise at that point. Minnesota was blue. Wisconsin was close, but blue. Michigan was turning blue. Nevada was close, but the outstanding vote was going to favor Biden, and he consistently gained there. Arizona had Biden with a good margin. Pennsylvania was a nail-biter. Georgia was an unexpected bonus as it edged blue. North Carolina didn't have the blue surges others did, but turned from blue to red to redder. 

With the close margins and numbers of mail-in ballots, it was a matter of waiting for the counts. Walk-in voting is easier. Identification is usually done on the spot with few snafus. Processing mail-in ballots is more labor intensive, and it took a long time due to the high numbers of ballots. Counting went on through Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Some folks looked at the numbers and decided on their own on Friday night that Biden had won. News organizations didn't call the win for him until Saturday near noon, when many called Pennsylvania as a Biden win, pushing him over 270 for the win. Biden was later declared the winner in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, giving him 306 electoral votes versus Trump's 232. (Few links, mostly from vivid recent memory.)

The claims that the election was being rigged started well before the election, and was a claim Trump made before the 2016 election too. It was just as bad in 2020 even though it was well known that there were lots of mail-in ballots and they would likely favor Biden heavily. This was all known beforehand, but some people still screamed that the election was being stolen even though valid votes were being fairly and legally counted. 

"Irregularities"

While the Biden supporters partied, the Trump supporters fumed about cheating, irregularities, pallets of ballots delivered in the night, software switching votes, how counting should have stopped at midnight, poll watchers fooled and not allowed to watch the counting, and other charges. 

A postal worker in PA claimed that ballots still in the post office on Wednesday morning were stamped with Tuesday postmark and shipped to counting centers. Project Veritas recorded the claim. Postal inspectors grilled the whistleblower, and his story changed. Supposedly he recanted, but then recanted again. It's still not clear where it stands, though it's not being pushed hard, so it looks like it was opportunistic on the part of the postal worker. Oh, did I forget to mention that he started a GoFundMe page that collected $136k? Being a whistleblower hero pays, so there's incentive there. 

Trump's legal team are like the Keystone Kops. Rudy Giuliani's staff mistakenly booked a press conference at the Four Seasons Landscaping business instead of the Four Season hotel. The neighboring businesses were particularly ironic: an adult toy store and a crematorium. 

Another center of fraud accusations was attorney Sidney Powell, who kept pushing fraud stories. One was about identical ballots are marked only for Biden. That one seems to fizzle. Then it morphed into software shenanigans (with Venezuelan election-stealing software) and pallets of ballots. She colorfully claimed to have so much information it was like a firehose, and that she'd soon be 'releasing the kraken' -- that mythical monster of immense power. Many of us awaited this release, and waited, and waited. At this point, I'm still waiting, though I think it will as much bullshit as thinking they had a real kraken. 

Georgia was a sobering and hopeful story. The Secretary of State is a loyal Republican, but most loyal to clean, fair elections. He announced a mandatory recount due to the margin of less than 0.25% difference, or around 14k votes out of 4.9 million. He stayed committed to fair elections was he was insulted by Trump and numerous other Republicans. The recount turned up errors amounting to several thousand votes, but no vast cheating. 

Image: alabamanews.net

Extras. Biden won by being cautious, caring, and solid, and emphasizing a sober approach to the covid pandemic. Exit polling showed Biden doing well with young voters, older voters, minorities, and women. Independents broke for Biden in a sizable way. 

Close to final vote count:

81,283,098 (51.3%) to 74,222,597 (46.8%)

A poll worker with covid worked, and died a few days later. Uhhhh, this is what we wanted to avoid!!!!

An early article (Nov. 9) about Republicans standing up to Trump. Sadly, not enough of them. The abettors seems to be louder and more numerous. A senator can't say publicly that he thinks Trump is an asshole because that's political suicide. 

Wednesday, December 9, 2020

November links, including a bit of rioting

 These are non-election-related links. Not many of them, but the election didn't manage to wipe out everything.

Another shooting by police. Again my initial response is that victims largely caused the incident. But my opinion changed somewhat. Parents were having a quiet moment in their car, not breaking any laws, and the police interrupted them to ask or serve a warrant. Are there better way to handle warrants? How big a problem are warrants? I'm no longer assuming that warrants are synonymous with people of low-character. 

A great article about the New York Times. It's facing a dramatic generational shift from the boomers/GenX to the millenials. 

This is election-related, but outside of the main topic which the scramble over electoral votes. Saturday after the election (Nov. 7), street parties erupted as people decided Biden had won and they took to the streets to celebrate. A week later, Trump supporters organized a rally in Washington DC. It was supposed to be a Million MAGA March, but was tens of thousands. There were also counterprotesters, and the Proud Boys organized a showing of one or two hundred. The Proud Boys got their wish and had a few fist fights and skirmishes, but not that much. Antifa was possibly the aggressor of one incident, of fireworks used against an outdoors restaurant where Trump supporters were dining, though the fireworks were directed at empty tables. A video touted as showing violent Antifa against an old man showed only part of the story, neglecting where he attacked numerous people beforehand. 

Also election related. A Democrat has to distance himself from the socialists in the Democratic party. The level of socialism hurt a lot of Dems, but not Biden. 

Conspiracy theories. Some software research group has put together a tool and model, and it looks good. And let's just review Pizzagate in depth. 

Image: businessinsider.com

Update 10/17/2024. From Just Security, an assessment on how dangerous the Proud Boys are.