Short: Conservative knife fight

I'm catching up on the combo-blog Political Animal. This one is worth a look. Glenn Beck and Grover Norquist are fighting over who will have more influence on the NRA. Norquist is suspect because he's a closet Mooslim married to a middle eastern woman.

Glenn Beck was able to mobilize hundreds of people to call the NRA. That's a scary thought, though not exactly surprising considering the demonstrations that the Tea Party mounted in its first year. Glenn Beck followers are nothing if not sheep-like. He's even had to ask conservative PACs to please stop fundraising because his mother won't stop giving. Multiply that by enough brainless, comfortably retired, conservative couch potatoes, and it's easy to imagine the NRA swamped with phone calls.

It is scary how many people Beck can mobilize, but then I remembered that Election Day is a whole different ballgame. It doesn't matter if Beck can mobilize hundreds or thousands if we're expecting over 100 million to vote. When it comes to Election Day, Beck doesn't have a disproportionate say.

Some of the sheep have time for Photoshop too. More scary or less scary?

Image: fitzinfo.wordpress.com

Leak: For them, Norquist is a RINO

OK, folks, I have no idea how politics is done, so this was eye-popping. You see, to be infulential (I mean influential) in politics, you have to host a weekly members-only strategy session where you talk about who's not pulling their weight, who stabbed you in the back, what words to use to attack someone, and what everyone has to accomplish before next week.

This is like Journolist, but for conservatives. The problem is that there's more than one of these members-only conservative networks. Norquist has had one for twenty years, but now there's an upstart that hates Norquist as a compromising-squish-establishment-fake-conservative. Wow. The right keeps moving so fast that we normal people can't keep up with what's extreme nowadays.

The people behind this ultra-conservative scout troop include Justice Clarence Thomas's wife, defunct representative Allen West, Ted Cruz, and a bunch of, ahem, journalists from Breitbart.

How do we know this? Someone got hold of documents from their private Google site and leaked the whole thing to Mother Jones. Just as I keep saying, whatever you want to hide, it ain't gonna stay hidden.

A good introduction is here, but be sure to read the long version to find out how the powers-that-be craft the news memes you can't stand. One. More. Second.

Oh, and they hate Karl Rove too.

Image: motherjones.com

Extra. Why are we bombarded with so many talking points? Per the Leesburg grid:

"Where this really gets interesting is when you're covering points faster than the opponent can create them. This puts them 'behind the eight ball,' and they never seem to create their own ideas; they only respond to yours."

Please, God, no, it's actually designed that way.

Update 7/30/13. Jonathan Bernstein of PlainBlog (still fascinating during these doldrums--great job!) says:

"Really? You're telling me that the same right-wing kooks who were publicly hyping Benghazi! and publicly urging Boehner and Issa to 'make this supposed scandal a top-priority' were...also doing the same thing when the TV cameras weren't on!"

He makes a valid point--none of this is particularly surprising or a scandal. I still found the information fresh, especially to know who's in the group and who's not.

Sadly true headlines: The GOP

From HuffPo:

"The Absolutist Politics of Norquist and LaPierre Will Destroy the Republican Party"

I haven't even read the article because I have a load of Christmas shopping to do. For the record, I don't think the GOP will die. They have the will to stay whole, if not completely united. They also benefit from being the only alternative to the Dems, who seriously couldn't handle hegemony if it was handed to them. I mean, when it was handed to them. The GOP will continue as a viable party because the Dems aren't cut out for single-party rule.

That is all. Must go shopping. Must make reservations. Must STOP BLOGGING.

Image: moreismoremom.wordpress.com

Sheepish confession: I'm back editing this post and adding the picture. Someone stage an intervention. But later, I've got more shopping to do.

The sixth sense of Grover Norquist

Here's another politician who's dead and doesn't acknowledge it. Last time it was Newt Gingrich. This time it's Grover Norquist. The Wall Street Journal just published a long interview with him where he tries to buck up the troops in Congress to hold the line on taxes.

"Going over the fiscal cliff, that's not so bad," he seems to say [not his actual words]. Here are his actual words about the fiscal cliff: [It is] "a completely invented crisis. Republicans can't allow themselves to be TARPed again."

The revolt against his tax pledge isn't a major worry to him, because the media is inflating it by interviewing the same five or six elected officials over and over. However, Saxby Chambliss, senator from Georgia, backpedaled the pledge on Wednesday, because he "cares a lot more about American" than about Grover Norquist. That's an interesting way to put it, making it about the personal power and vanity of Norquist.

Norquist seems to think that he can keep almost all the GOP in line with a threat to primary those who falter. We shall see. I predict that Norquist won't have important sway. Many Republicans will break from their pledge. They may work out the math of who shoulders the burden of voting for a tax deal (those senators not facing reelection in 2014), and those who get the safe, anti-tax vote. But a tax increase of some sort will pass.

Single-issue boogie men like Grover Norquist will pass away. The problems in this country are too complex and too pressing to let single-issue pressure groups call the shots. It's not just my view--that's the election result. Norquist is doomed already. He's still screaming as he hangs on by his fingernails, but his grip is failing, and he's going to fall... very, very soon.

Image: newser.com

Extras. Comments about Chambliss in the Atlanta Journal are mostly negative, in  these two veins: he's a sell-out, or too-little-too-late. Here's the most perceptive: "Grover will find an obedient robot to run against Chambliss. Georgia’s voters are predominantly morons who will do as Fox News and Rush tell them to do." Perhaps Chambliss will be retiring in 2014, and that's why he's making the sacrifice now that relieves pressure on other GOP senators.

The Weekly Standard is trying to line up challengers already. Whoa, I'm scared... I interpret this as maneuvering in the conservative media. Some outlets are trying to keep the pressure on. Others will give GOP officials an escape hatch. That's another prediction. I'll watch for how it plays out in the conservative media.

The GOP's big risk that backfired

Conservatives had bet big on being able to defeat the Democrats and take control of the federal government. They were largely successful in 2010, retaking the House and almost capturing the Senate. But in this election, they fell far short.

The GOP now has to settle for much less as they deal with taxes and spending reductions. They were strongest in 2011, with the debt ceiling looming. However, they lost that advantage by stubbornly resisting increased taxes on the wealthy. This was an explicit promise most Republicans had made (the Norquist-imposed pledge not to raise taxes). The implicit penalty for any Republican breaking the pledge was to face a stiff primary challenge. So, between stubbornness and fear, no-new-revenue was their unalienable position.

 The Cost of Maintaining Sacred Cows

They gave up a lot to maintain that position. They probably could have gotten deeper budget cuts in a broad range of programs, and maybe would have been seen as serious "adult" budget realists. But serious spending reform doesn't happen quickly, so you have to be willing to spend several months in negotiations. The Dems were willing to do that, but the GOP grandstanded for too long and spiked negotiations at least once. In the end, the GOP were backed into the corner by a hard deadline, and had to take the only no-new-revenue deal the Dems offered. (And the Dems stacked the deck so it was an extremely disadvantageous deal.) Essentially, the GOP lost the budget negotiations over no-new-revenue in 2011.

"The Situation"

They are poised to lose in the current negotiations too. The situation is eerily similar:

• There is a huge fiscal issue with a detonation date.
• Negotiations that should take months have to be squeezed into a few weeks. 
• The Republicans risk being nationally hated spoilers unless they seriously negotiate.

So, they are back in this position because they went for broke on their philosophy and agenda, hoping that they could win it all and simply impose their solutions.

 The Perks of Flexibility

I can't accuse the Dems of doing the same thing. They said they were putting everything on the table. The Dems never walked away and even offered a higher target for spending cuts in 2011. They didn't have sacred cows that they had to protect at all costs. The GOP could have asked for all the cuts they dreamed of, and they might have gotten a substantial number of them. But only if they were willing to make some big concessions too. However, the GOP weren't willing to do that.

This has been a lesson to me in negotiations, but it seems that the wise men of the GOP didn't learn what I learned, because they are back in the same situation this year. The best they can do is retrieve their crib notes from 2011 of what the Dems offered in their "grand bargain" and try to embarrass the Dems into accepting the deal now. But the headlines for "grand bargain" are decidedly unoptimistic.

Prepare for the Downside

This is also a reminder to me that you always have to consider the downside risks. What should you do in case the market falls, sales stall, or you miss your electoral goals? You better have a plan. The GOP didn't. That makes them even bigger losers, and it didn't come from the voters.

...but don't choke on it.

Image: nytimes.com

PS. I don't consider this deeply insightful. I think lots of people share this perception. However, the GOP hasn't acknowledged this situation since the election, so I decided to write explicitly about it and commit it to pixels. Perhaps many more Repubs are saying "oops" now.

Extra. An explanation of the Dem bargaining position regarding higher tax rates vs. a cap on deductions.