Showing posts with label TARP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label TARP. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Short: Who fixed the financial crisis?

According to some highly biased or highly ignorant people, Obama caused the financial crisis and the deep recession that accompanied it. For others, it's Bush, Wall Street greed, Bush, lack of regulation, atrocious corruption in rating agencies, more Bush, etc.

It's a relief to read that the financial crisis was fixed so long ago that it was completed before Obama was sworn in. That's the view of two of Bush's economic advisers. They make a good case: the financial crisis was over, but Obama was left with (one helluva terrible) recession. Some of their conclusions run counter to the conventional wisdom or usual conservative drivel:
  • Putting Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into conservatorship likely averted larger shocks.
  • The financial crisis was caused principally by unprecedented capital flows into the United States.
  • Some conservatives mistakenly assumed that Chapter 11 restructuring was a viable option for GM and Chrysler. [Ahem, Mitt]
  • The “deregulatory cause” hypothesis is flawed.
I'm not going to read the 25-page explanation for these conclusions. However, I did like this much shorter narrative. Here is their quick explanation of their capital flow hypothesis:
"The flow into risky assets drove down credit spreads, making high-risk investment cheaper than it had been in the past. As a result, in the mid-2000s risk-taking increased dramatically, especially in the housing market."
My translation (possibly erroneous): Investors who wanted to avoid the panics that occurred in Asia and South America during the 90's decided to invest way too much in the US and Europe. It was too much money chasing after too few good investments, so money sloshed into poor investments like subprime mortgage lending and housing booms. 

The more I think about, the more I wonder if that explanation works. Would it have been significantly different if the money had crashed elsewhere in the world? If so, why?

Image: cafehayek.com