Intelligence for Jan. 6

Reading some sources today that are trying to say that Jan. 6 happened because Dems let it happen, and their goal was to make Trump and his supporters look really bad. It could have been prevented. People like Pelosi and the intelligence community had the info but decided not to act because they benefited more if it went forward. 

There are some problems with that, but I decided to look into the intelligence and try to sort through it.

Tucker Carlson interview with the disgraced chief of capitol police who was forced to resign one day later. He seems to think he was set up. He's got some good points, but there's a lot questionable there. Transcript of his testimony to the Jan. 6 committee. 

Long piece about the Oathkeepers. I'm particularly wondering what their plan or plans were and how much was known about it in advance. They were highly involved in the Stop the Steal rhetoric and protests, emphasizing that they were willing to due Trump's bidding and defeat the deep state. Rhodes used rhethoric like "if we don't, there will be no more republic." They did appear to have a plan to infiltrate Congress and intimidate the elected officials and stop the peaceful, orderly transfer of power based on the certified election results. It wasn't a good plan or a successful plan, but it was a plan, and that is sedition. Testimony here. 

Just Security timeline of the intelligence failure. Very meaty with tons of links. In-depth reporting from WaPo on the intelligence failure. NBC news on the intelligence failure. 

Government Accountability Office (GAO) archive on what they gathered on the intelligence. Only two of 10 agencies correctly forecast that the capitol or Congress was going to be targeted.

Image: Live 5 news

Update 12/15/24. Here's a report from an Inspector General on the FBI response to Jan. 6. Inspector Horowitz is largely position on the FBI and mentioned only one oversight. 

Here's raw data (comments) from FBI agents about the FBI response. Many comments have a conservative bent that the reaction to Jan. 6 was much greater than to the race riots during the previous summer. Also a lot of comments on how the crisis teams could have done better. Either way, lots of on-the-ground response.

Background of the Capitol HIll insurrection

This article is particularly good at laying out the violent rhetoric and actions that preceded the insurrection and set the tone for it. This includes invasions of statehouses in Michigan, Oregon, and Kentucky. Also the incident when Trump supporters boxed in a Biden campaign bus in Texas. 

There was some disarray in the Capitol police in the run-up. They didn't stay informed on the trends and missed the signs to be better prepared. Timeline and issues. Did some members of Congress help rioters in the run-up? 

Groups were saying that they'd storm the Capitol (a particularly good article, also here). Alt-right groups are taking advantage of the opportunity to radicalize Trump supporters. The groups are in the military and law enforcement, and disinformation is rife. The scope of planning within the groups and between the groups isn't clear yet. The Proud Boys appear to have spearheaded some actions (excellent video), but the Oathkeepers and 3-percenters are well-represented too. More will be emerging as investigations continue. Here's NYT covering Proud Boys' chat prior to the riot. 

Also, what roles did Roger Stone and Alex Jones play? Here's Roger Stone raising money in the run-up. Here's an article by Rod Dreher on the religious groups prior to Jan. 6.

It was perhaps sheer luck that more people weren't killed. Most of the rioters were pro-police and not in favor of injuring police just to get to the members of Congress. The more radical groups perhaps didn't see enough support for more violent action and therefore didn't go that route. 

Tucker Carlson says it was just good Americans yearning to be heard by a callous, uncaring, overbearing government. Wow, talk about propaganda. 

A huge article about the work done by non-partisan groups to prevent a huge mess in the election and the aftermath. Election systems were strengthened, sometimes with donated money. Business groups didn't want chaos, but they saw it coming if they did nothing. 

A transcript of the speech given by Trump on Jan. 6. Search for 'fight' and search for 'peace' to get a sense of how much peaceful protest wasn't emphasized. 

Two articles about the belated response of the military to requests for help. Shorter, possibly clearer. Longer with a detailed timeline. There appeared to be almost an hour delay in getting the OK from top military to send in national guard units. The guards weren't able to go directly to help--they had to stop at armories to get the proper gear first. But at least they had partially mustered, or it would have taken even longer. 

Image: brandeis.edu

And more aftermath. 

A Republican Congressman (and Nazi youth look-alike) Madison Cawthorn has a moment of regret, but did it last? Minority leader McCarthy says that everyone bears responsibility. That's a convenient smearing/spreading of the blame. A pundit trying to minimize the importance of the riot. Mostly, things weren't that bad and democracy wasn't overturned, so it's not that bad. 

A watchdog of Parler found a 'patriot' calling for much more violence next time. Lets hunt these cowards down like the Traitors that each of them are, he writes. 

In Michigan, the head of the state senate goes along with the line from the true believers, and then apologizes, somewhat. This is such a standard  problem of standard cowardice. 

In Pennsylvania, there's a civil war between Trump supporters and those who support Toomey and a level of independence. We'll see in 2022 who is nominated to the open Senate seat and who wins. 

The Capitol Hill police force deals with group (and individual) PTSD. 

The nutty pillow guy is making 'documentaries' about the election theft. Here is a review: Absolute  Proof is as bad as you'd expect. 

Facebook has its own 'supreme court' and they were called on to rule and/or advise on the permanent suspension of Trump's account. Here's the pithy version of what they decided, including the phrase 'replete with falsehoods' about Trump's statement. Here is a more detailed version. 

'Daddy told us to come to DC.'

Trump supporters aren't that different from the Proud Boys or other right-wing fight groups. 

The saga of Ashli Babbitt, the woman who was shot while crossing a barricade in the Capitol.  

More about OathKeepers, Three Percenters,  and other militias. 

Trump tried to get the DOJ to overturn the election.

The New York Times made a somewhat short video (40 minutes) about the Jan. 6 riot, using pieced-together video of the events.