Confirmation bias: Still no political changes

Last month I wrote about the suspension of politics except for a few important side issues like immigration. I still think I was right, at least in many ways. I never meant to imply that Dems and Repubs would stop complaining about one another--that's as inevitable as death and taxes. But I was right that no major issues are being discussed.

For example, what was the biggest issue on the budget front? Well, a small tweak to the sequester that prevents furloughs of air traffic controllers so that the airline schedules don't suffer. Are we even talking about a billion dollars there?

So, this is our budget outlook for the foreseeable future: no major changes. Budgets not tied to inflation will be flat. No new spending initiatives. No new savings initiatives. No new taxes. No tax reform. No taking a scalpel to the budget. No reform to Medicare or Social Security except what's already baked in the cake. No Dem wishes, no GOP wishes.

As I said before, I'm satisfied with this. I don't trust the current crop of pols to do a good job on any kind of reform, so we're better off if they restrict themselves to fixing what is obviously broken. Fix the flat tire, but don't mess with the engine.

We are now on a trajectory to have lower deficits. That's due to the Tea Party House Republicans, who forced spending cuts, and due to the 2012 electorate who didn't hand power to the GOP, and thus allowed many of the Bush tax cuts to lapse.

No Gain, But No Pain

I'm not the fastest to see this coming. Back in 2011, an Atlantic commenter named steveinch pushed the idea of no cuts, but also no spending increases. I was hot for some cuts, but eventually I saw the beauty of his plan. It would be more politically palatable to hold the line on spending than to find the places we could safely cut. With the sequester, we have something fairly close to his plan.

I think the budget next year will look a great deal like the budget we have now, primarily because no other budget deal has a chance of passing.

As for other issues, such as background checks (small potatoes, really) or immigration (a big issue), they have almost no chance either. Congress will get one big thing done this year--a status quo budget. That is all. Everything else will be small, and not a whole lot of small things either.

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Short: No politics for the foreseeable future

Politicking has been suspended. That is, everything is suspended except for a few important issues like immigration reform, and those issues are being left in the hands of the few who still know how to bargain, converse, and compromise.

I'm actually happy about this, but it means that I won't be posting much, which is fine too. I don't live for political brawling and never have. I'll enjoy the peace and quiet and freedom from petty political squabbles and government meddling. It already feels great.

So the next question is: How long can this peace and quiet last? I think it will last quite awhile, through the next debt ceiling vote, and even through the 2014 fiscal appropriations. We'll have a surprisingly quiet budget season that non-partisans will be able to snooze through. Maybe it will pick up with the midterm elections, but it might not even then.

I'll make a promise now. In one year, I'll wake up, come out of my burrow, sniff the air, and do the pundit thing again. Maybe I'll predict another year of  "No politics." But I have every expectation of being able to stay quietly in my burrow for the next year, and not being rousted out by political tumult. I may on occasion emerge to take a quick look around and enjoy a particular bit of comedy or drama, but it won't be often. I'm going to cherish this quiet time as much as I can.

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The silver lining of the continued stalemate

...in three words: NO SOCIAL ENGINEERING.

No Democratic social engineering. No Republican social engineering. No big tax cuts blowing holes in the budget. No expensive new programs blowing holes in the budget.

What we'll have is minimal change in government. Gone is the ability to engage in any large-scale expensive wars. There won't be any half trillion dollar jobs program/stimulus. We'll have an incremental austerity because there aren't the votes for raising spending. We won't have huge spending cuts because there aren't the votes for that either.

We can probably remain in this state for quite a while. After all, what are the pressing national or international issues that require a major change? Our budget deficit is the biggest one I can think of. If the international financial systems go into another meltdown, that will be another, but it's not happening now. Neither is it clear that any regulation the US could pass would prevent it.

If this is an end to meddling government, I'm for it. If it's simply a vacation from meddling government, I'll take that too. However, I don't forget that huge government programs of yesteryear are cushioning the problems of today. We have programs that aid the elderly and sick, that protect our borders and international trade, that educate the next generation. I'm fine with stopping the fixing for a while, letting things settle, and see what, if any, pressing issues arise in a few years. Maybe there won't be big issues, maybe there will. Perhaps the best thing is to wait and see.

Tell me the truth--wouldn't you love a break from changes for a while too?

 Let's all give it a rest.

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