Was I prepared for what happened at the Capitol?

I knew Jan. 6 was going to be a big day. As with the Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville, the fans were planning to turn out. This wasn't going to be a flop. It was going to be major. 

I wrote to a friend that I was going to make a shopping run in the evening unless things went 'batshit crazy.' That's what I wrote Tuesday, Jan. 5. 

By Jan. 7 or later, I was trying to recapture what my expectations were. Here's what I've been able to reconstruct.

Background on rallies

There had been a very large Trump rally on Nov. 14 that was overwhelmingly peaceful. It could have been like that, but I didn't think it would stay that calm. After all, Trump had been gearing up the rhetoric, and appeared to be getting more reckless instead of more resigned. The prior Saturday, Trump called the Secretary of State of Georgia to pressure him to find 17,800 votes and give the election to Trump. This was nuts for a number of reasons. 

1. The Secretary of State had been vocal about the issues, how he had investigated them, and how very little fraud was found. This included a hand recount and a second machine recount.
2. It was too late. The vote results had been certified by all the powers in Georgia, so it was official.
3. The Electors had already met and voted. 
4. There wasn't any time for reversing the certification and having a new certification giving the votes to Trump. 

Getting desperate?

So it was clear that Trump wasn't bowing to the inevitable. On Monday, Jan. 4, he floated the idea that Mike Pence would do the right thing and throw out Biden votes. Again, Trump ignored the evidence that Mike Pence would do no such thing. The idea had already been floated, and Pence was clearly not embracing it. 

So Wednesday was the day that Congress would certify the votes from the Electors, and Joe Biden would officially be the next president. 

Trump seemed to hope that he had a way to prevent that, but was there a legal route left to do that? All legal routes, except a very farfetched one, had been exhausted. The farfetched legal route was that Electoral College votes would be challenged in Congress, the challenges debated, both houses of Congress would throw out enough votes so that Biden didn't meet the 270 vote threshold, and then both houses of Congress would vote to declare Trump the winner. 

Did Trump really believe he and his mass rally of supporters could influence Congress to that degree? Maybe Trump believed, maybe he didn't. 

Maybe Trump didn't care about whether the route was legal or not. Maybe he would have been happy to have his mob take hostages and demand that Congress award the presidency to Trump. Certainly some of the mob were planning to do that. It's ironic because they also claimed to be fighting for the Constitution at the same time they were clearly using force and violence to exert their will upon Congress. That's not very constitutional. 

So what did I really expect? 

I expected Trump supporters to surround Capitol Hill. I expected a lot of shouting and grandstanding. I didn't expect that they would break in and have mobs roaming through the Capitol. But my definition of 'batshit crazy' was mobs holding hostages and demanding that Congress declare Trump president. Also possibly kidnapping members of Congress from their homes, on the way to the Capitol, or family members of Congress people. I didn't think it was likely to go that far, but it was on my radar. 

And Trump's mobs got 80% of the way there. However, they didn't take hostages, and they didn't get to make demands based on holding hostages. They probably would have done this, but the Capitol police weren't going to allow them to do that. The police would shoot to kill before they would allow hostages to be taken. So it was the strength of the police, and their willingness to use deadly force, that prevented the worst batshit scenario. 

But not just the police. The mobs weren't armed for the most part, and they weren't planning to use deadly force. The use of force by the police drew a line that the mob wasn't willing to cross. The next time there's a mob like this, they will most likely know in advance that they are have to cross that line. 

Cyborg with zipties for distinguished members of Congress

Image: cbsnews.com

Trump tries to overthrow Congress

[Under construction. Published unfinished to get it in the timeline.]

 As much as I fucking hate Trump, I'm not sure I saw this coming, but I should have. 

Trump has been spinning lies about his huge victory for months, winding his supporters up with false tales of illegal ballots on a huge scale. It shouldn't be surprising that they exploded. 

The definitive accounts of what happened haven't been written yet. In a nutshell, Trump called for his supporters to come to Washington DC on the day that Congress was due to certify Joe Biden as the next president. Many heeded that call. I haven't seen estimates but it was more than 20,000 but not have a million. They came wound up and ready to spring. Many already planned to storm the Capitol and force Congress to certify another term for Trump. 

After a morning of speeches near the White House, Trump sent his supporters to the US Capitol to "fight like hell and if you don't fight like hell, you're not going to have a country anymore."

Some of his supporters were already there, but when the huge contingent arrived, they broke through a series of makeshift barriers of moveable metal bike racks and chicken wire. They continued to push, fighting with the greatly outnumbered Capitol police. The mobs got to many sides of the Capitol, and proceeded to break in through doors and windows wherever police didn't put up extremely stiff resistance. 

The weaponry for each side. For the police: some with almost no weapons or shielding, not even helmets. Some with riot gear, shields, gas masks, batons, tear gas, pepper spray, flashbangs and rubber bullets. For the rioters, some with almost no weapons or shielding, not even helmets. Some with riot gear, shields, gas masks, batons, pepper spray, bats, flag poles, sharpened flag poles, fire extinguishers, and anything at hand that could be thrown. 

The capitol police were outnumbered by such an extent that breaches were bound to happen, and they did. The number of rioters who gained access isn't clear yet. I've seen estimates of 200, but I think it was many more than that. The mobs went looking particularly for Nancy Pelosi and Mike Pence. Some planned only to make their case verbally, others planned to kill and enforce their will that Trump should be given a second term. 

With the level of violence and lack of respect for the law, this has to be called an insurrection and/or an attempted coup. 

Luckily it failed. Security was strong enough to escort the members of Congress to safe areas, presumably in the basement. No one in Congress, on the staff, or among the police were taken as hostage or prisoner. Had some rioter been able to take hostages, the outcome might have been different. 

As it was, about three hours after the assault started, reinforcements arrived and started clearing out the Capitol, driving the rioters out, then away from the doors on all sides, then away from the Capitol and out of the city. One rioter (a woman veteran) was shot dead inside the Capitol. One police officer died from his injuries the next day. One woman rioter was crushed in the crowds. Two other rioters died from medical issues on the grounds. 

That evening, even before all the rioters were driven out of the city, Congress resumed its session. From 8:00pm until 3:45am roughly, they debated per their rules of order and finished the largely ceremonial task of certifying the next president. So all the violence and mayhem was in vain. 

Not completely in vain. It was opened the eyes of a lot of people. The level of importance is hard to gauge right now. Two days later, when Trump continued to claim the election was stolen, he was permanently thrown off of Twitter, which had been his prime mode of communication and his podium for bullying. He was also suspended from youtube. Though he hasn't lost all his means of communication, he was so curtailed that he couldn't fight anymore. He ended up leaving his term in near silence and isolation. And disgrace. Posts about impeachment to come. 

Image: rferl.org

Extras. One former GOP senator saw this coming and said the GOP must separate from Trump and form a new party. Video here, print here. Tom Cotton, a very conservative GOP senator, called out his colleagues for going too far and serving up lies. 

Mitch McConnell played along for way too long. So he allowed the authoritarianism to flourish. 

Texts urging Trump to stop the madness on Jan. 6. Brief and very telling.

Antifa did it. Retired General McInerney, who lied about the server farm in Frankfurt where votes were manipulated, lies again about Antifa spearheading violence at the Capitol. The guy hasn't met a lie he won't speak. More important evidence that it was Antifa! Some patriots dispute it was Antifa because it was them and it was glorious. Senator Ron Johnson thinks it was FBI agents/provocateurs. 

Trump wanted a big send-off for himself from his fans. Since he doesn't have many fans in government anymore, that means the usual rally sort of thing. The military is apparently declining to give him the usual send-off. (He didn't get it. White House aides, staff, and family saw him off in small contingents at the White House and the military base. The base also supplied a podium and a band, but not ranks of troops to see him off.)

Moving testimony from a Capitol police officer who was crushed and assaulted during the riot. That wasn't all that happened to him that day. 

How many national guards were sent into Washington to quell the coup attempt? 340 guards were already working around DC before the riot at the Capitol. 1100 were called up that day. 6200 were mobilized that evening to help with tasks in the next days up through the inauguration--in case there was another coup attempt. These are numbers from the National Guard website. 

The plans to keep Trump in the White House

(Sorry, catching up with backlog.)

This isn't easy because Trump didn't win enough states to win the Electoral College. So there have been other schemes. Lots of lawsuits trying to change the election results in states where the vote was close. Appeals to states where the GOP is the majority of the legislature to stop the usual procedures for appointing electors and substituting Trump-loyal electors instead. Trump calling the governor of Arizona as he's signing the certification (to threaten or plead????). Telling the governor of one state to call a special session of the legislature. States suing other states for how they ran their elections. Other states, Trump, and over 100 members of Congress signing on to the suit ( ...which was denied by the Supreme Court). Oh, did I forget to say disenfranchisement on a colossal scale? Some rallies, but not that many or anything really huge. 

Since it's after Dec. 14, the electors of the Electoral College have met and given Biden 306 votes versus 232 to Trump. The attempt to get Trump-loyal electors in place, or prevent Biden electors from being certified failed. Biden made it to 270. 

The last chance is an objection to the joint session of Congress on Jan. 6. If a member of the House and Senate both object, each chamber has to listen to the objection and vote whether or not to accept the objection. Some loyal folks think this will work and Trump is pushing on senators to get in line. In preparation for some states being overturned one way or another, self-appointed electors for Trump have formed delegations. Is martial law being considered? There are numerous reports of it, and Lin Wood and Sidney Powell are pushing it. But there are also denials. Trump himself isn't keeping a cool head, but is turning on everyone. 

And there's yet another legal-route attempt, this time by Louie Gohmert and others. He opines that the VP (as president of the Senare) has the power to dismiss electors and choose other electors. Really? That sounds very dictatorial to me. I don't think that was the intention of any of the laws. Mike Pence didn't sign on to this thinking either, even though Gohmert gave him the opportunity. 

Image: nbcnewyork.com

Extras. Trump gave his 'most important speech ever' trying to tell how the election was stolen. Too bad the same claims didn't work in court. But for his followers, he's a beacon of hope and ....truth. That's sad. 

Most embarrassing document ever created by a White House staffer. The article also has some good stats on the election. And another superlative: the dumbest lawsuit filed about the election. 

Ron Johnson, senator from Wisconsin, had a somewhat heated but very ineffective hearing about election fraud. Claims of fraud just don't seem to have any traction after they've been rejected by a dozen judges. They need something fresh, new, powerful, and true, but none of that is happening. Too bad Johnson didn't have this GOP leader from PA testify. She said that her house would be bombed if she publicly refused to do Trump's bidding, so she's keeping it quiet rather than pointing out how unconstitutional his demands are. 

Trump is so busy trying to overturn the election that he didn't pay attention to the looming government shutdown if spending bills weren't passed. Same with any covid relief bill. The House and Senate finally managed to do it, and Trump belittles it. What was he doing all that time? Then he ended up signing the bill after days of acting like he wasn't going to. 

Trump tried a hail-Mary pass at strong-arming the Secretary of State of Georgia. It didn't work, but it was recorded and leaked. A couple days later, a top GA elections official debunked many of Trump's claims of fraud. 

Column on the big picture. The details about Trump are ludicrous or chilling. But the big picture is of a person who should never have been president, but was. Even more reported: Trump tried to get DOJ officials to declare the election 'corrupt,' and then Trump would execute some unnamed maneuver. 

There are examples of people taking responsibility. Here's one--the official in charge of vaccine distribution incorrectly interpreted the amount of vaccine that would be available for use, and had to tell the states that were getting less. 

Covid enters its winter season

I had a post where I was gathering all the links about reopening. Now the issues with covid are different. Reopening isn't the main issue anymore. Now the main issue is the surges in cases, so I need a new post focusing on that. 

Many charts comparing economics to covid deaths. There's no clear pattern that lockdowns work or don't work. Geography is the biggest contributor.

WOW. A COVID TREATMENT PROTOCOL. Lots of info here. 

Use this tool to calculate your covid risk. Mine is low. Hooray!!!

Hospitalizations have surged in California, especially the southern half. It's reported that there are no unused ICU beds. The cause of the surge isn't known since the rules in CA have been rather strict. Perhaps folks are breaking rules frequently, but not being caught at it. Perhaps there is a mutation with a higher transmission rate. This article points to the possibility of capacity cheating at malls. 

Image: wbur.org

Update 2/21/21. Catching up on some articles about reopening schools. These are tough trade-offs. I prefer caution but not everyone agrees. 

An investigation in Wuhan shows that the virus circulated for a while before being noticed. That's what happened elsewhere too. 

Reopening schools is still hard. 

The politics and culture war around masks. I think the conservatives decided to make it partisan.