Intelligence for Jan. 6

Reading some sources today that are trying to say that Jan. 6 happened because Dems let it happen, and their goal was to make Trump and his supporters look really bad. It could have been prevented. People like Pelosi and the intelligence community had the info but decided not to act because they benefited more if it went forward. 

There are some problems with that, but I decided to look into the intelligence and try to sort through it.

Tucker Carlson interview with the disgraced chief of capitol police who was forced to resign one day later. He seems to think he was set up. He's got some good points, but there's a lot questionable there. Transcript of his testimony to the Jan. 6 committee. 

Long piece about the Oathkeepers. I'm particularly wondering what their plan or plans were and how much was known about it in advance. They were highly involved in the Stop the Steal rhetoric and protests, emphasizing that they were willing to due Trump's bidding and defeat the deep state. Rhodes used rhethoric like "if we don't, there will be no more republic." They did appear to have a plan to infiltrate Congress and intimidate the elected officials and stop the peaceful, orderly transfer of power based on the certified election results. It wasn't a good plan or a successful plan, but it was a plan, and that is sedition. Testimony here. 

Just Security timeline of the intelligence failure. Very meaty with tons of links. In-depth reporting from WaPo on the intelligence failure. NBC news on the intelligence failure. 

Government Accountability Office (GAO) archive on what they gathered on the intelligence. Only two of 10 agencies correctly forecast that the capitol or Congress was going to be targeted.

Image: Live 5 news

Update 12/15/24. Here's a report from an Inspector General on the FBI response to Jan. 6. Inspector Horowitz is largely position on the FBI and mentioned only one oversight. 

My take on the Georgia indictments

Fascinating. Nineteen people are indicted so this is a contrast to the federal charges where Trump was the only named defendant. There is a lot of common territory though because Trump's plans to get states to overturn their elections results happened in Georgia as one of the primary places. These indictments are state-level charges, not federal, because states (unsurprisingly) also have laws against election hijinks. Nineteen defendants, 41 counts, and an average of over 7 counts per defendant since many counts have multiple offenders listed. 

Some of the charges:

A Rico conspiracy to do a bunch of bad shit with many threads and tentacles. 

Solicitation of violation of oath by public officers - trying to get officials to do illegal or unethical shit. 

Impersonating a public official, forgery, false statements for pretending you're an elector when you're not. 

Perjury and false statements galore - to the GA legislature, to investigators, committees. I assume that the perjury charges are based on lying when under oath in a legal proceeding. 

Can the Rico charges stand? Can defendants be charged in Fulton county with offenses that occurred in Coffee County? Is it a criminal false statement to wrongly characterize action in a video, or just a mistake that isn't criminal? This applies to statements about video of counting from the State Farm Arena. However before the State department of GA clarified the actions shown in the video, it may reasonably have been misinterpreted. 

When does conferring with a witness cross the line to the criminal act of influencing witnesses? 

Some of the incidents: Lying about the State Farm Arena video. Lying about election workers. Harassing election workers. Pressuring election workers over their testimony. Falsely saying and signing documents as a presidential electors. Unsanctioned access to voting machines in Coffee County. Lying about what you were doing with those voting machines. Pressuring the secretary of state of GA to find 11780 votes. 

These are the most satisfying indictments yet because the major players will be having to answer for their acts, unless they decide not to mount a defense. It's less complicated when Trump is the sole defendant, but it's fully complete when his henchman are there too. It's also great that they all had to come in and get mug shots. 

Image: PBS

Extras. The report from the investigative grand jury. They were considering indicting Sen. Lindsay Graham too. 

McCarthy is voted out of the speaker position

Of course there is going to be lots of drama in Congress when there is just barely a majority. Add in grandstanding fantasy-based reps, and it will be even more nail biting. 

Some of the play-by-play of the debate and the vote. A day before the vote, before Gaetz' motion to vacate was even filed, a pundit writes that McCarthy had fucked up all the goodwill he might have had from the Dems. Two days before the vote, this was the lay of the land, just after the surprise continuing resolution that avoided a government shutdown. 

The reasons why the Dems didn't save McCarthy's bacon. The less fun official version of it. A list of who's angry at whom, with the most interesting resentment in the second half of the article. Moderate GOPers thought the Dems would save McCarthy. The bipartisan ProblemSolvers caucus may actually dissolve over this, which would be a shame. 

The editorial board of WaPo recommends that House Dems vote present so that the new speaker doesn't have to make so many promises to the holdouts. We'll see...

My analysis

My own prediction was that the Dems would save McCarthy because they need him to pass appropriation bills and/or CRs, or there will be a shutdown of unknown length, and certainly longer because this leadership issue has to be settled first. That's what I thought and I was wrong. Reality didn't follow my logic, so I've been trying to understand the reasons. 

Here's my guess now: The Dems didn't think McCarthy was going to be able to deliver compromise appropriation bills. He was going to cave to the rightwing and pass big cuts, and then it would be a stalemate. There's a good chance that's how it would have played out. Well, in that case, you might as well dump McCarthy and try someone who might be more open to reality. Based on how McCarthy behaved, they had little to lose. 

Plus there is the issue of timing. If Dems were hoping to ax McCarthy, they can't do it at their convenience. They have to do it when a GOPer raises the motion. So if everything gets settled, maybe there's no disgruntled GOPer to make the motion and follow through, so the Dems have to continue dealing with McCarthy for months more and maybe straight through to the 2024 election. "Nobody trusts Kevin" was a quote I read from more than one representative. When enough in the House feel that way, you are OUT.

There have been so other twists and turns on this issue. A couple GOPers said they would nominate Trump. That's ludicrous because Trump doesn't have the work ethic or temperament for the job. But he's also a glutton for attention, so he said that he'd consider it for a short time. That set off warning sirens and the possibility has been shut down. Now on Friday, Trump has endorsed the slimy Jim Jordan for speaker. This is a major liar, a J6 coward, and a former coach at Ohio State University who didn't report all the sexual harassment that was going on. The other major contender is the next in the GOP leadership, Steve Scalise. I hate to think a scumsucker like Jordan can win. If he loses, it is a slap in the face to Trump, so all the more reason for it to happen. 

To be continued in the Extras...

Image: Newsmax

Extras. Trump was nominated as speaker back in January too with hilarious results. Lots of ridicule on certain networks. 

Unexpected Ukraine/Russia developments

I don't know that anyone predicted this. The head of the Wagner group (the Russian mercenaries) had been loud in his criticism for a while, but to head into revolt and threatening the government--that wasn't foreseen. And that lasted just 24 hours before it was settled, though it's probably not really settled. 

Here's one of the best early analysis. 

I've seen so much speculation. That Putin is playing 5D chess and it's part of a brilliant plot. That the Wagner general is experienced and daring, but didn't have a plan for air cover, so that was a huge hole in his planning. 

WHAT HAPPENED?

Prigozhin's private jet was downed with much of his high command and himself on board on August 23. That's what happens to traitors even if Putin assured otherwise. 

Image: Sky News