Finally the Durham report lands

Republicans have been looking for a white knight who will finally prove that the deep state conspired to support Hillary Clinton and block Trump as much as possible. Sadly for them, evidence for this has been spotty, and there were never enough connections with the evidence that existed to make a convincing story of it. The Inspector General Michael Horowitz was supposed to blow the whole mess wide open, but he didn't come through. So Durham was the next and probably last white knight. 

Durham really tried to deliver. However it's rather hard if you can't fabricate evidence. When you're stuck with lackluster evidence, you just shine it up as much as possible, and this is what Durham did. 

Mostly he hammers on the FBI for moving too aggressively to a full investigation instead of a smaller investigation. He also hammers on the FISA warrant application, but that's a repeat of the criticism from IG Horowitz, so not new info. 

So it's page after page of Durham droning on about the FBI agents being too serious, not gentle enough, not having a light enough touch, being tougher on Trump campaign officials than Hillary campaign officials. Why were they so hot to investigate more deeply? Gee, Durham seems to think it was bias against Trump, and nothing to do with the unprecendented hacking and release of DNC documents. 

New from the Durham report: The Clinton Plan

I did learn something new from the Durham report. I'm not sure how I missed it, but back in late July 2016, some intelligence floated in that Hillary Clinton approved a campaign plan (the Clinton plan) to fabricate information and spin that Trump was conspiring with the Russians. This plan (which was just an allegation that floated in from somewhere unspecified) wasn't taken seriously by the intelligence community, so they didn't seriously look into whether there was such a plan and it was being executed. 

Now a lot of conservatives thought or still think that this is real. The deep state (which includes Hillary) did join together to fabricate the Russia hoax, and it was wildly successful. 

I knew about the deep state version of the theory, but not the Clinton plan version. The deep state version has Brennan, Hillary, Susan Rice, Obama, Biden, Comey, Clapper, FusionGPS and some others, and it's been around since before the 2016 election. I didn't hear about the Clinton Plan version until the Durham report. 

There are data points that support the deep state conspiracy theory, including the existence of Crossfire Hurricane, the Steele dossier, the texts between Page and Strzok, unmasking of names in intelligence, etc. However, a more likely explanation is that the US does have counterintelligence agencies, and they are activated in the case of Russians fucking acting like assholes and interfering in US elections. So having an investigation like Crossfire Hurricane is a reasonable and legitimate response to the fucking hacking. Unmasking--reasonable! Obama briefed--reasonable! And so on. 

The Steele dossier was a typical kind of opposition research, but it sure backfired, so that was a mistake, and it's on Hillary. The moral of that episode is not to get your oppo research from disreputable folks like Russia intelligence sources. Just don't do it because it's likely to be shit and you don't want contact with it. 

Image: sunjournal.com

Extras. Horowitz report. Wittes of Lawfare is slowly digesting the Durham report. A 2018 version of the Russiagate conspiracy theory. This article may contain the best synopsis of the Clinton Plan. However there isn't a lot there. Clinton hardly had to invent fibs about Trump and Russia because Russia and Trump were creating so much ammunition on their own. 

Surprising new factoids about the Ashli Babbitt shooting

I checked the available video of Ashli Babbitt again and again. Unfortunately, I can no longer find the long video by Jayden X that showed the bashing of the doors so clearly. However, so many of the facts have been known for so long, I was surprised to find out new information. 

For one thing, Babbitt wasn't unarmed, but had a folding knife in her pocket. Also there was a report that the officer shouted and warned before the shot. This comes from a Fox News article with details from the investigation. These details tend to support the view that the shooting was justified. Ironically, the article headline is: Babbitt shooting internal police docs reveal 'no good reason for shooting,' according to Judicial Watch. Hmmmm, not a lot of support for that odd conclusion. 

Politifact describes the hallway that was being defended, and provides a lead to a bombshell description of the scene from a GOP representative:

Congressman recalls moment woman was shot inside Capitol building

(ABC) Rep. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., said he witnessed the moment a police officer fatally shot a woman inside the U.S. Capitol on Wednesday, as Trump supporters stormed the building.

Mullin said the shooting happened as an angry, pro-Trump mob that had been protesting outside broke into the Capitol building and attempted to force entry into the House chamber, which was still in session.

"They were trying to come through the front door, which is where I was at in the chamber, and in the back they were trying to come through the speaker's lobby, and that's problematic when you're trying to defend two fronts," Mullin told ABC News Chief Anchor George Stephanopoulos in an interview Thursday on "Good Morning America."

"When they broke the glass in the back, the (police) lieutenant that was there, him and I already had multiple conversations prior to this, and he didn't have a choice at that time," Mullin said. "The mob was going to come through the door, there was a lot of members and staff that were in danger at the time. And when he [drew] his weapon, that's a decision that's very hard for anyone to make and, once you draw your weapon like that, you have to defend yourself with deadly force."

A U.S. Capitol Police officer in plainclothes fired his service weapon as "multiple individuals" tried to gain access to the House room, striking a woman. She was transported to a local hospital where she was pronounced dead, according to Robert Contee, chief of the Metropolitan Police Department of the District of Columbia. Authorities have not yet released the woman's identity.

Mullin said police "showed a lot of restraint" and "did the best they could."

"That young lady's family's lives changed and his (the officer's) life also changed," Mullin said. "But what also happened is that mob that was trying to go through that door, they left. And his actions will may be judged in a lot of different ways moving forward, but his actions I believe saved people's lives even more. Unfortunately, it did take one though."

Mullin said he "never thought" he would witness such a scene unfold in the United States.

"I get people being passionate and being frustrated, but there's a right way and and wrong way to do things and yesterday was wrong. There was absolutely no excuse for it," he said. "We're very fortunate a lot more people didn't actually lost their life. One is way too many." 

This is fascinating, and worth copying in whole because it shows that Congress members were still in the chamber and endangered by the breach. Also, Mullin was acquainted with the officer, and his opinion was that the officer did his duty and saved many lives. Video of the Congressman shows this. 

Image: the-sun.com

Extras. A couple videos showing the situation when Babbitt was shot.  The terse statement from the DOJ that the shooter won't be charged because a very high criterion can't be reached. That sells the officer short. I wanted more analysis, and found this from Lawfare. I don't agree with how they analyze the shooting, but then they are looking strictly at legal. My view is that Babbitt was part of the violent mob, there was a grave danger of death or great bodily harm, and the officer didn't have a viable alternative. If he had tried to arrest her, he wouldn't have been able to prevent the next people through the breach. If he let her proceed, that was a violent person in that space, and more coming in seconds. So he did what was needed. 

Could this be the origin of Dominion accusations?

This is bizarre if true. That's a big if, but I'll discuss that later. What if the accusation against Dominion Systems came from a woman in Michigan who also claimed to be protected by the wind and having other strange powers. 

This revelation comes by way of an article in the Daily Beast and a filing in the Dominion defamation suit. The woman (last name Bourne) sent an email to Sidney Powell. The email isn't that detailed, which works against it being the source of the rumors. However the Daily Beast showed how phrases from the email ended up in the show where Maria Bartimoro discussion of election fraud. 

But could similar rumors be floating around during that time, picked up by various people, not just this odd woman in Michigan? I think I recall that a conservative journalist claimed to get into a conference call by Dominion Systems in the summer of 2020, so well before this. However I didn't record specifics and haven't been able to confirm that. ,By Nov. 6, 2020, accusations were already circulating about Dominion systems. This is before strange lady in Michigan wrote her email. The rumors exploded Nov. 7 to 11. I don't know when Hugo Chavez got linked in, or the server farms in Frankfurt Germany or connections to Italy. 

So there isn't anything definitive here, but I want to hold onto this info because it's so strange, and such a scoop if it's true. 

Image: clipart-library.com

2022 Covid update

It's been an interesting year. Omicron swept in and infected almost everyone, which kind of equalized vaccinated and unvaccinated folks. It also killed a friend of mine--the first person I personally knew to die of covid. 

I got covid early in September and passed it on to everyone in my household. We all had mild cases with mild fever (2 out of 3 of us) and no shortness of breath. 

Winter is coming, and I don't know what to expect. A winter surge in the north is my best guess. 

One good thing about not publishing is that I can ask questions, then come back with the answers. Did we have a winter surge in the north. A bit of one, but not like previous years. See the MA covid deaths below:

Image: worldometers.info

Extras. Great article about how psych/emotional factors influence decision-making on taking the vaccine. According to the article, it's better for vaccination to be mandated when warranted so that people won't reject it out of fear of doing themselves harm. 

A UK doctor and anti-vaxer is ripped apart for his tactics and poor science. 

A listing of the major causes of death as they changed over the past 100 years. Back in 1915, the bigger killer by far was infections.

China had a severe lockdown strategy with people confined to their homes. Then an apartment block fire killed a number of residents, and Chinese people went out to protest in large numbers to the embarrassment of Chinese leaders. So they dropped their lockdown policy and predictably had a huge surge of cases that swamped a lot of hospitals. I'm not sure how it played out after that. Did it all calm down, and people decided it wasn't that bad?

One good thing about not publishing is that I can ask questions, then come back with the answers. China didn't do too badly. Hospitals swamped with old people for a while, and then it got better. 

My economic prediction for post--covid

Look at the supply chain issues. That's it in a nutshell. Unfortunately, I have no expertise in this area, but somehow I still feel that this is key to understanding what is happening and what will happen. And perhaps (well, absolutely) some other factors are involved. 

But first, let's list the big factors: supply chain, material shortages, labor not willing to be exploited like before, energy disruptions from the Ukraine war, investors desperately seeking to make some money.

The supply chain, transportation issues, and material shortages are all working together to hike up prices. This isn't going away anytime soon because the supply chains got royally jacked up. 

(Written in August 2022. Still applicable.)

Image: 6abc.com

Continuing saga of how Trump tried to steal his second term, plus Jan. 6 committee reports

Much of the plan is now known, though it actually was fairly open in late 2020. Once the lawsuits failed, Trump hoped somehow to discredit the certified slates of electors and throw the vote into the House. Luttig, a traditional Republican judge, lays out the plan. It didn't work because Mike Pence, as president of the Senate, didn't go along with it. 

Former Attorney General Barr testified that Trump was 'detached from reality' when it came to the election results. 

Since that plan failed, Trumpie Republicans are working on 2.0 of the plan, which involves Republican legislatures ignoring the vote totals in their states and choosing pro-Republican electors. 

The biggest revelations for me (so far) was how hard Trump pushed the DOJ and how hard the DOJ pushed back. But this was somewhat apparent at the time. Enough of it leaked within days. DOJ officials testifying at the Jan. 6 hearings. Transcript of that day's hearings. Reconstruction of that very important day, Jan. 3. Very important: the lying letter that Jeffrey Clark wanted to send out just days before Jan. 6. 

Highlights of Pence Day at the hearings, plus the danger was greater than it appeared. The prospect of 'wild' demonstrations was viewed as leverage. All the evidence that Trump was warned he was doing illegal shit, but he ignored it. 

More to be added as I find it or remember to add it. Publish now, continue adding. 

Image: wttw.com

Extras. Three video summaries of key points in the riots: the role of the Proud Boys, demonstrators breaching line after line, and bodycam footage of police being attacked. 

Truth Social, supposedly the no-censorship twitter platform, has suspended accounts for posting about the Jan. 6 committee reports. 

A group led by the Kraken lady Sidney Powell may be paying for the defense of some OathKeepers. Prosecutors are concerned that they aren't getting informed consent or client-centered representation. Whose goals are the priority? That's worth asking. 

The Jan. 6 committee was very well organized with excellent pacing and focus in their presentations. A critique of how they've done that. 

From the excellent Jan. 6 hearings, a beautiful, smart, serious White House staffer tells a lot of the inside stories of Jan. 6, but certainly not all of them. Trump's support is shaken. A longer piece of how she broke from the Trump circle.

After Elon Musk was forced to follow through and buy twitter, he reinstated Trump's twitter account. Now some of that history is available to see again, but some is strangely gone. The tweet where Trump blasted Mike Pence for cowardice? Gone. 

Here's a list of his Jan. 6 tweets.Two important tweets from Jan. 6. The two final tweets from Jan. 8 that got his account permanently suspended until Musk became owner. Yes, he deserved to be suspended because he was starting on the incitement again. Trump's tweet slamming Pence is gone, but his post on that material is still available on Facebook. The audience is so different between twitter and Facebook. Mostly negative on twitter, mostly supportive with a lot of religious references on Facebook. And a fun look at Junior being clueless about his own father. 

Some of Trump's illegal fake electors still have roles in government or elections.

A bunch of stories based on releases of the final days of the committee. Some in the inner circle were dismayed. A timeline of the 187 minutes that Trump wasn't calling off the riots. Many bits of interest from WaPo folks pouring over the releases. And some bigger ones also. WaPo's view of the 187 minutes. 

Some clarification on what the capitol police leadership were facing. 

Because I don't know where else to put this: the story of a Trump loyalist trying to do major troop withdrawals, but he's only 30 years old and doesn't know how to write up a presidential order. He also doesn't know it takes more than writing it and getting a signature. Lots of top-level officials saying I don't know about this. Do you know about this? FUNNY.

The Georgia indictment.

Can we do anything about school shootings?

Database of shootings. 

Everytown (Bloomberg org) on school shootings. Other tabs have more info, but need to dig. 

Researchers found commonalities in school shooters. Very important. 

More research on what policies work. Fairly important, but not as incisive. 

Another website with data on school shootings. A website on mass shootings. 

Information about the Uvalde shooting at an elementary school. The shooter had a high power AR rifle, so the rounds went through doors and walls. The article also explains the design of the AR, its ammo, and the damage done. 

AR from shooter in the Uvalde school

Image: texastribute. com

Extras. Pew research into mass shootings. A graph there shows the increase in active shooter incidents, but it's still not a significant contributer to the overal murder rate. 

Long WaPo article on the experience of a mass shooting with AR15 type rifles. Lots of graphic pictures and description.