Hindsight is 20/20, they say, but Google helps sort out what we knew when. I was having an online argument with someone who said that we knew 'within a few days' that covid-19 affected mostly people over the age of 65. But did we? (No, we didn't. There were plenty of younger patients needing hospitalizations, and we didn't have a good idea of who would live and who would die until about March 20, and even then we didn't if it would be different in locales in the US.)
I also decided to check the run-up to the surge in NYC. I found two great contrasting views. The first is that the Health Department in NYC is excellent and has managed so many medical issues, so they will manage well (March 5). The other view, from an ER doctor (March 2), was that they weren't prepared at all. They didn't have tests that they needed, and they were about to be deluged. Hundreds in a few days, thousands by next week. The ER doc was right on the timing, the numbers, and the deluge.
The deluge came March 19. The number of cases nearly doubled that day. It was only one day after Governor Cuomo announced measure for reducing workforce exposure by allowing only 50% capacity at workplaces. Just two days later he announced all non-essential workplaces must close.
So New York went very quickly from a few cases to hospitals being swamped. With so little testing available, they didn't see the growing numbers but in early March, the ER doctor did, but there wasn't proof by testing. A little over two weeks later, there was the surge of admissions of those too sick to weather the illness at home. That was not so different from in Italy, where they were blase about covid-19 at the end of February, and suffered their surge on March 8.
I also decided to check the run-up to the surge in NYC. I found two great contrasting views. The first is that the Health Department in NYC is excellent and has managed so many medical issues, so they will manage well (March 5). The other view, from an ER doctor (March 2), was that they weren't prepared at all. They didn't have tests that they needed, and they were about to be deluged. Hundreds in a few days, thousands by next week. The ER doc was right on the timing, the numbers, and the deluge.
The deluge came March 19. The number of cases nearly doubled that day. It was only one day after Governor Cuomo announced measure for reducing workforce exposure by allowing only 50% capacity at workplaces. Just two days later he announced all non-essential workplaces must close.
So New York went very quickly from a few cases to hospitals being swamped. With so little testing available, they didn't see the growing numbers but in early March, the ER doctor did, but there wasn't proof by testing. A little over two weeks later, there was the surge of admissions of those too sick to weather the illness at home. That was not so different from in Italy, where they were blase about covid-19 at the end of February, and suffered their surge on March 8.
(I may add more later.)
Image: cityandstateny.com
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