Bizarre Voter Fraud Tale

This is incredible, and I'm going to tell it from memory. Hugo Chavez, late dictator of Venezuela, had voting software created where he could control the outcome by flipping votes to whichever candidate he wanted. This software can incorporated into most of the voting software in the US due to the potential for making money from humongous bribes. 

We know this because of the intrepid work of Sidney Powell, one-time lawyer to Mike Flynn (of Russia scandal fame). She's blown the lid off this scandal with honest-to-God affidavits, and maybe a few reports from some choice security firms. 

The software has back doors that allow people to hack in, decide how many votes to flip, etc. They can do it via the internet or thumb drives. On Election Day, the vote flipping was going along fine, except that Trump was getting a landslide of votes, and it was more than the algorithm could handle. So all the machines had to be shut down early in the morning of Nov. 4. On their startup later that day, huge number of votes were entered for Biden. That's how he stole the election.

There was also lots of internet traffic involved that went through Spain. Then, something-something to a CIA-managed server farm in Frankfurt. Luckily patriots uncovered all of this, and a crack team of special ops troops raided the server farm, captured the servers, and five were killed in the operation. This was covered up by saying they were killed in a helicopter accident in the Sinai. But the good guys captured the servers, and they'll be releasing the data showing the fraud sometime--it's not clear when. By the way, the crack troops were the 305th battalion, which is a bit odd because it's an entry-level training battalion for those going into military intelligence. 

Mike Flynn has been closely in touch with the good guys, which include retired general Thomas McInerney. Most of this information came from him. Both he and Flynn are also Qanon supporters. So these folks involved with this conspiracy theory are also gullible or opportunists who are big into Qanon shit. In some ways, that's good because it's easier to show how little credibility they deserve. 

Part of this story got blown because a name was left in the metadata in one of the affidavits. It was supposedly from a high-level military intelligence officer, but was actually from an ex-Army officer who had worked in the vehicle pool, and had attended (and washed out of) the 305th battalion. Ah, some pieces come together. 

I'm concerned that I left out some bizarre piece of this concoction, but I'll have to add it later. 

Image: flipboard.com

Extras. Possibly related, but I'm not sure. It's about software and votes shifting, and involves this gang of folks who have been pushing these stories non-stop, so close enough. Antrim County in Michigan had some sort of software problem, and it was investigated by an uber-partisan group. The real problem was failure to follow procedures, like using the correct version of the ballot when setting up counting.  

Update 12/20/20. Newsmax, Fox Business, and other media are backpedaling on their reporting about voting machines. It's because of threatened suits, and hotshot lawyers signing on. Here is Newsmax sharing some facts in a very sheepish way. 

Update 1/15/21. The American Thinker issued a retraction including this mea culpa: It was wrong for us to publish these false statements. We apologize to Dominion for all of the harm this caused them and their employees. We also apologize to our readers for abandoning 9 journalistic principles and misrepresenting Dominion’s track record... We regret this grave error.

Extra, very belated. Sometime after the election, a conservative activist in Colorado (named Joseph Oltmann) started telling a story about infiltrating an online meeting of Dominion Voting folks. Says a Dominion exec said some very incriminating stuff, but goshdarnit, he didn't record it! I lost track of this bizarre little story, and then found a link. Saved now for posterity. 

Fraud claims in Michigan and other states

Fucking Trump (yes, there will be rants in this post) has been claiming rampant voter fraud for years, and he has a chorus of Republicans and conservative media backing him up. None of them are honest about the level of fraud or where it is. Fraud is a convenient claim, so helpful for saying 'we deserve this' and 'the other guys are evil.' 

This year, with covid, it was clear that many people would be mailing in their ballots. It was completely predictable, but the GOP had to turn it into a divisive issue, where mail-in ballot were suspicious, loaded with fraud, and unAmerican. 

Trump summoned GOP lawmakers from Michigan to the White House. Some folks were panicked about this, but the signs mostly indicated that the Michiganders wouldn't succumb to pressure. A long article about many chapters in the Michigan saga, including rallying the screamers for ballot-counting the next, and taking a stand on certification. Many Republicans hate anyone who isn't working on overturning the results, so principles be damned.

The state election canvassers were facing an unprecedented choice: certify or venture into unknown territory. Another story about the canvassers. More on the initial counting of ballots. And the BBC looks into claims of 10K dead voters and find that the list is bogus and full of holes... and live people. 

In a moment of ironic levity, a star witness of ballot processing in Detroit repeatedly spoke over a Republican representative at a formal hearing, insulted him, becoming a real-life example of a character from Saturday Night Live. The real-life caricature is unbowed and unrepentant. 

A judge in Michigan was petitioned to stop a certification, and he told each side to submit their 7 strongest affidavits. You know, all those thousands of great affidavits proving the fraud? Well, the Michigan GOP either chose very badly or their affidavits were junk, because they lost. It turns out that affidavits are evidence, but not necessarily solid, credible evidence. Ooops. Speculation doesn't count, it seems. 

The Pennsylvania federal circuit court of appeals blasts Trump's claims and reminds him and his lawyers that you don't invalidate votes like that. We are Americans and our votes matter. In Pennsylvania, there have been so many lawsuits its hard to keep up with all of them. Some have tried to throw out a few ballots, but that doesn't help much, so most suits have tried to throw out A LOT of ballots. So the arguments are that fairness requires millions of votes get thrown out. These suits have not gotten too far. Some GOP legislators are trying to be put aside the election. Again, go against the tradition and throw out the election. It's not getting a warm welcome. 

In depth - Accusation for pre-printed ballots for Biden in Georgia

So an experienced poll observer told about a group of ballots that appears to be pre-printed with votes for Biden. Hmmmm, an experienced worker is much more credible than some new screamer who doesn't know what's normal and what isn't. She is called to testify at court, but doesn't say much except that the ballots were pristine instead of having worn edges. (Similarly in her affidavit.) However, in the video she embroiders on the claims, saying that the vote markers looked the same for all the ballots, but she didn't make that claim while under oath. 

Even more interesting is the seven hours of hearings by a Georgia subcommittee. A great cross-section of fraud and other complaints. 

Image: pennlive.com

Extras. A roadmap of the strategy the GOP might use to overturn the election. Live updates of the recount in two counties in Wisconsin. The margin was tight, but Wisconsin rules are even tighter, so Trump's campaign had to pay for it. An explanation on why a signature check in Georgia is worthless. It is also not legal under current law. More information about signature checking in Georgia. A Georgia legislator finds the names of constituents she personally knows on a list of supposed fraudulent voters. A monitor hired by the state to watch Fulton County talks a bit about what he saw. 

A mathematical theory debunked. A typical claim from Trump, being divorced from reality. Another claim, that 80 million ballots were sent out. It was 44 million, and that included California and states that have had vote-by-mail for years. 

Wisconsin was the only state not to settle all its (in-state) issues by safe harbor day. Maybe I'll have to post a followup if it gets interesting. Oh, and at least one WI legislator thinks the legislature should choose the electors instead of following the usual process. I wonder what party he's in? 

Arizona. The GOP in Arizona is split between the crazies and the not-crazies. The governor and a bunch of others are now being reviled for following the election laws instead of following the true law of doing what helps Trump. Some important articles about the Arizona recount sponsored by the deluded and partisan AZ senate Republicans. It starts. Not looking so good. The election board of Maricopa County explains elections. And gives even more technical details. 

What was the fraud complaint? Could you explain that please? And another. And two more. 

A transcript of a news conference that Giuliani gave with Sidney Powell, who had promised a 'kraken' that would crash many states and the entire election. Her beliefs were a mishmash including vote-switching software from Venezuela, a countrywide algorithm that was supposed to switch just enough votes, servers in Germany, and thousands for people who bought the voting software with plans to benefit by guaranteeing their wins. Update on kraken failure to engulf states. Monsters of the deep aren't what they used to be. 

A Florida attorney solicits Floridians to move to Georgia to swing their senate seats in the runoff. However doing that is illegal. Ooooops. 

A collection of the disinformation being circulated. A kitchen sink of the evidence by the evidence believers themselves. 

Major report from the GOP-lead Michigan Senate. No major fraud. Sorry guys, couldn't find it. A judge in Michigan grills Trump attorneys at a hearing about allegations of misconduct. 

MyPillow CEO kept claiming he had proof of voting machine tampering, but it was a bunch of bullshit. 

Summary of the election lawsuits where evidence was presented and was the basis for the decisions. 

Update 5/13/2022. The Secretary of State that Trump tried to strong-arm into 'finding' extra Trump votes is dedicated to finding fraud--that is, real fraud or malfeasance. He found about 2000 cases of non-citizens registering and 4 cases of ballots cast for dead people. 

Update 12/14/23. The slate of fake electors in Michigan is being investigated in public hearings. Some details of the plans and what occurred. Smart ones stayed away or got covid and couldn't attend. 

HALLELUJAH, WE DUMPED TRUMP

This is a dump right now. Maybe I'll fix it up, maybe not.

Before the election, there was early voting and mail-in voting. The GOP, was usually, tried to juice up their edge by suppressing votes, or asking for votes (even >100K votes in Texas) to be thrown out. The answer was a resounding NO. 

On Election Day, there appeared to be three scenarios: A clear Biden win, a close election that Biden wins, or a nail-biter that Trump wins. Trump delusionists thought there could be a landslide for Trump, but I never bought into that. 

Some prognosticators predicted an easy victory for Biden, over by midnight, or maybe by 9:00PM EST. That wasn't the case, which was clear when results started coming in for Florida with Trump winning there. So opinion polling was off again, with Trump support underrepresented. There were suggestions that Trump supporters frequently lied to pollsters, considering pollsters to be part of the deep state-establishment elite, and therefore the enemy. 

Early leads, later losses

Trump had big early leads in many states, including Michigan and Virginia. I went to bed having seen Virginia turn. I woke up to a somewhat brighter picture, but no certainty. Iowa was decisively red, which wasn't a surprise at that point. Minnesota was blue. Wisconsin was close, but blue. Michigan was turning blue. Nevada was close, but the outstanding vote was going to favor Biden, and he consistently gained there. Arizona had Biden with a good margin. Pennsylvania was a nail-biter. Georgia was an unexpected bonus as it edged blue. North Carolina didn't have the blue surges others did, but turned from blue to red to redder. 

With the close margins and numbers of mail-in ballots, it was a matter of waiting for the counts. Walk-in voting is easier. Identification is usually done on the spot with few snafus. Processing mail-in ballots is more labor intensive, and it took a long time due to the high numbers of ballots. Counting went on through Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Some folks looked at the numbers and decided on their own on Friday night that Biden had won. News organizations didn't call the win for him until Saturday near noon, when many called Pennsylvania as a Biden win, pushing him over 270 for the win. Biden was later declared the winner in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, giving him 306 electoral votes versus Trump's 232. (Few links, mostly from vivid recent memory.)

The claims that the election was being rigged started well before the election, and was a claim Trump made before the 2016 election too. It was just as bad in 2020 even though it was well known that there were lots of mail-in ballots and they would likely favor Biden heavily. This was all known beforehand, but some people still screamed that the election was being stolen even though valid votes were being fairly and legally counted. 

"Irregularities"

While the Biden supporters partied, the Trump supporters fumed about cheating, irregularities, pallets of ballots delivered in the night, software switching votes, how counting should have stopped at midnight, poll watchers fooled and not allowed to watch the counting, and other charges. 

A postal worker in PA claimed that ballots still in the post office on Wednesday morning were stamped with Tuesday postmark and shipped to counting centers. Project Veritas recorded the claim. Postal inspectors grilled the whistleblower, and his story changed. Supposedly he recanted, but then recanted again. It's still not clear where it stands, though it's not being pushed hard, so it looks like it was opportunistic on the part of the postal worker. Oh, did I forget to mention that he started a GoFundMe page that collected $136k? Being a whistleblower hero pays, so there's incentive there. 

Trump's legal team are like the Keystone Kops. Rudy Giuliani's staff mistakenly booked a press conference at the Four Seasons Landscaping business instead of the Four Season hotel. The neighboring businesses were particularly ironic: an adult toy store and a crematorium. 

Another center of fraud accusations was attorney Sidney Powell, who kept pushing fraud stories. One was about identical ballots are marked only for Biden. That one seems to fizzle. Then it morphed into software shenanigans (with Venezuelan election-stealing software) and pallets of ballots. She colorfully claimed to have so much information it was like a firehose, and that she'd soon be 'releasing the kraken' -- that mythical monster of immense power. Many of us awaited this release, and waited, and waited. At this point, I'm still waiting, though I think it will as much bullshit as thinking they had a real kraken. 

Georgia was a sobering and hopeful story. The Secretary of State is a loyal Republican, but most loyal to clean, fair elections. He announced a mandatory recount due to the margin of less than 0.25% difference, or around 14k votes out of 4.9 million. He stayed committed to fair elections was he was insulted by Trump and numerous other Republicans. The recount turned up errors amounting to several thousand votes, but no vast cheating. 

Image: alabamanews.net

Extras. Biden won by being cautious, caring, and solid, and emphasizing a sober approach to the covid pandemic. Exit polling showed Biden doing well with young voters, older voters, minorities, and women. Independents broke for Biden in a sizable way. 

Close to final vote count:

81,283,098 (51.3%) to 74,222,597 (46.8%)

A poll worker with covid worked, and died a few days later. Uhhhh, this is what we wanted to avoid!!!!

An early article (Nov. 9) about Republicans standing up to Trump. Sadly, not enough of them. The abettors seems to be louder and more numerous. A senator can't say publicly that he thinks Trump is an asshole because that's political suicide. 

November links, including a bit of rioting

 These are non-election-related links. Not many of them, but the election didn't manage to wipe out everything.

Another shooting by police. Again my initial response is that victims largely caused the incident. But my opinion changed somewhat. Parents were having a quiet moment in their car, not breaking any laws, and the police interrupted them to ask or serve a warrant. Are there better way to handle warrants? How big a problem are warrants? I'm no longer assuming that warrants are synonymous with people of low-character. 

A great article about the New York Times. It's facing a dramatic generational shift from the boomers/GenX to the millenials. 

This is election-related, but outside of the main topic which the scramble over electoral votes. Saturday after the election (Nov. 7), street parties erupted as people decided Biden had won and they took to the streets to celebrate. A week later, Trump supporters organized a rally in Washington DC. It was supposed to be a Million MAGA March, but was tens of thousands. There were also counterprotesters, and the Proud Boys organized a showing of one or two hundred. The Proud Boys got their wish and had a few fist fights and skirmishes, but not that much. Antifa was possibly the aggressor of one incident, of fireworks used against an outdoors restaurant where Trump supporters were dining, though the fireworks were directed at empty tables. A video touted as showing violent Antifa against an old man showed only part of the story, neglecting where he attacked numerous people beforehand. 

Also election related. A Democrat has to distance himself from the socialists in the Democratic party. The level of socialism hurt a lot of Dems, but not Biden. 

Conspiracy theories. Some software research group has put together a tool and model, and it looks good. And let's just review Pizzagate in depth. 

Image: businessinsider.com

Update 10/17/2024. From Just Security, an assessment on how dangerous the Proud Boys are. 

Various campaign links

Election Day is three days away, or less if I'm slow posting this. 538 is predicting nearly 90% chance that Biden will win. I hope that's right this time. 

Trump lauds his token African Americans, as do his supporters. Ice Cube was 'persuaded' conditionally by policy promises. Yeah, right, the GOPers in Congress will be right on it.

Back to the polls. Is this a repeat of 2016 with too much confidence in the polls, and Trump pulls another upset? There is so much early voting going on and heavy turnout. It looks like it favors the Dems, right? Well, maybe not. There are some indicators that Trump is doing well. Higher new voter registrations for Trump. Major GOP turnout too. Polling showing support for Dems weakening among black and Latino folks. A Rasmussen poll had black folks supporting Trump 31% of the time. I hope it's as inaccurate as other Rasmussen polls. Trafalgar is predicting a Trump victory, like they did in 2016. However, 2016 was a lesson to 2020, and I don't think people will be staying home with overconfidence. 

And since it's now almost two weeks after Election Day, I'll rush in the rest of my pre-election links.

Dems weren't the angels they should have been about Hunter Biden. Oh pleeeze, give me a break. 

And that was it. Publish!

Image: ccbiznews.com

Big new vision for what the US should be

I haven't been posting, but I've been very active following the huge news events in the US, where the covid pandemic and Black Lives Matter demonstrations have superseded  even the presidential race in importance (until recently, like October).

I've been well aware of the killings that have sparked the Black Lives Matter movement. Trayvon Martin. Michael Brown. Philando Castille. Eric Garner. And many more. This spring it was Ahmaud Arbery, followed by the egregious slow-motion asphyxiation of George Floyd caught on tape as neighborhood folks pleaded with police to let him up so he wouldn't die. 

But he did die. And it was a latest stick of dynamite, setting off demonstration, looting, and vandalism in dozens of cities. My town had a BLM demonstration that was peaceful. We have a bit of BLM graffiti that isn't overwhelming in the least or destructive. 

Something clicked inside me though. It happened after looking at the 30 minutes of body cam tape of  Rayshard Brooks. There was something about it... And I realized what it was. This was a guy desperately trying to do the right thing and avoid arrest. He was polite to the police, helpful with his paperwork, not belligerent in the least until they tried to put the cuffs on him, and then he fought them like a man desperate to escape. Even as he was fighting them, he didn't yell epithets. Even as he shot a taser (grabbed off one of the cops), he didn't insult them. And then he was shot as he tried to run away. A possibly important detail is that Brooks was on parole, and a new arrest might have landed him immediately in prison. 

While I was mulling over what had happened, I read Brooks described as a convicted felon, an angry drunk, a very violent man. What I witnessed in that video was very different, and I don't think the video lied. 

Suddenly I was able to see someone who could have been a neighbor of mine. He was trying so hard to be a good guy, not cause any harm to anyone, and he ended up arrested for SLEEPING IN HIS CAR. How the fuck did things go so wrong? 

So I started to think about how it could go so wrong. He was desperate to avoid arrest after having done nothing bad, nothing irresponsible. So how did this happen?

Going Wrong #1 - Making too many people criminals

In the US, people lose a lot of their employment potential if they are convicted of a felony. And some fairly smalltime offenses get classified as felonies because of the 'tough on crime' ethos in the US. Do we really want to keep punishing someone years after their conviction? Wouldn't it be better to make it easier to go straight and be a law-abiding person? I think it would be better. 

So I want reform of our laws, particularly reducing the number of crimes labeled as felonies. I want people to no longer be considered guilty of a felony (have to report it on forms) after a certain number of years. Maybe 5 years for lesser felonies and 10-20 for more serious ones. I want three strikes laws used only for violent felonies, not shoplifting or burglary. 

I also think that more county or municipality should have a heavy dependence on fines for funding. Don't use traffic violations to fund your courts. Keep fines high enough to discourage but not so high that it strangles people. Possibly fines should be a portion of percentage of income or your electricity bill, so on a sliding scale. That way it's close to equally painful whether you are rich or poor. Definitely the poor shouldn't be soaked as they have been in many towns and counties, like Ferguson, Missouri. 

Going Wrong #2 - The Underclass

Underclasses are almost always a given in history. The poor, the peasants, the serfs, the slaves, the plebians, the workers. The owners don't want to pay too much because owners are generally greedy and want to have more profit for themselves. However, you do need workers, at least some of the time. You also sometimes need soldiers, and sometimes a lot of soldiers. And you need the next generation to carry on or old age for the last generation is going to be horrific. 

So the owners/nobility want workers who are as cheap as possible. They may pay near-starvation wages or give near-starvation rations. They probably aren't going to be generous.

In the US and probably almost every other country, we inherited this system and outlook. I think it's the worst part of our economic system because it is greedy, cruel, and dehumanizing. I don't think all wages should be equal, but all jobs should provide a decent wage for doing the work well. 

Pay should be good enough to support the person and a small family in a basic, healthful condition. That means decent shelter, decent food, education, medical, and clothing. To me, any job should pay well enough, even at the bottom of the ladder because too often there aren't higher rungs. Some extra generosity to folks at the bottom, including teenage workers wouldn't be a horrible waste when it ensures that everyone has decent wages. 

Wages aren't the sole issue. There's also housing and education. Traditionally, poor housing was what peasants had to put up with. That shouldn't be tolerated anymore. We should upgrade housing for everyone. Similarly with schools. Decent schools, good curricula, and reasonably small class sizes for everyone. 

How to get there

Maybe that seems overly simplistic, but those are the changes I'd like to see in the US. I want a country with respect for all its citizens, and decent wages, housing, and education for all its citizens. That means no group is considered dirty, underclass, undeserving, or disposable. 

Unfortunately, poor folks (blacks, whites. latinos, native americans) have been considered unimportant and disposable. So that has to stop. All people must be valued. This is a big change, but it shouldn't psychologically be that difficult. 

Can we afford these changes? With the average income in the US being $72K for household, this should be possible. However, we may not be able to maintain high levels of immigration and have good wages for all. So I would choose higher wages and lower immigration. It may also be important to emphasize small families so that the next generation isn't swollen with too many for the available jobs and resources. 

I do foresee that we'll need guest workers. I think guest workers should be paid at least the minimum wage so that there isn't a preference for guest workers over American workers. Housing should also be decent. Families as guest workers may be discouraged if the need for labor in the future may be reduced. I would maintain birthright citizenship. 

While I think this vision is doable over time, I don't believe that the US will take this path. It's outside the box and too different from tradition. It also requires more laws and regulation, less greed and more sharing. The wealthy in the US haven't been in favor of that. Just consider Jeff Bezos, the richest person in the US, and how little he pays many of his workers. His great wealth is more than he'll ever need, so it's not immoral to impose a reduction on him to raise others up. 

I think people still need incentive to work, and a good wage that takes care of your family is a powerful incentive. Being respected also makes even unpleasant jobs worth it. I wouldn't support a 'universal basic income' since that might stifle the incentive to work.

While I think crime would decrease, I doubt it would disappear. For repeat criminals who show little interest in reform, prison is proper. For one-time criminals who do reform, society should welcome them back. 

No One Left Behind

I've mentioned Black Live Matters and the problem of having an underclass. However I don't see this as an issue involving only minorities. It's bigger than that. It's a matter of seeing all Americans as 'one of us.' That includes traditionally marginalized groups, like black or Latino folks, but also everyone, including rural folks, rust belt workers, etc. Everyone. 

With this inclusion, we should no longer have out-groups that are disdained. We should cherish all Americans and not let small differences set us deeply against each other. 

So that is my big new vision for the US. I'm inspired by the possibility. I'm inspired to have finally come to understand what I'd like to see in a fair society.

Image: cnn.com

Extras. Link to the Moynihan Report back in 1965 about poverty and lack of opportunity for black families. 

Very interesting links. Long but worth it.

 I've been negligent in keeping up with blogging. Mea culpa. But here's lots of good stuff.

Reports on the Trump campaign. Feeling confident in August. Trump's appeal to white working class remains strong. People who think Trump is nuts, including Hannity. Voting suppression shenanigans--just one of many tactics to reduce the turnout. Republicans getting more worried. Less cowardice towards Trump--a bit less. Unfocused campaign near the end--maybe the emphasis is simply on bluster. Details of targeting black voters in 2016 for discouragement.

In-depth reports about how Biden chose Kamala Harris. I'm very interested in decision-making processes. This reports a budding connection. I hope that's a good sign. 

Other tidbits about Biden. A long piece focusing on personality and character. Like many Dem campaigns, Biden is late with a strategy for Latino voters. The Biden campaign goes gross on drug test request. (Don't talk about urine PLEASE!!!!)

Heading toward fascism? A refugee from a fascist country warns the US that we are definitely headed in that direction. Not all hyperbole by any means. 

Real data on voter fraud. It's not clear that the methodology is strong, but (if so) this should be getting more attention. Actual numbers on dead people voting and double voting. Nothing on ballot harvesting which is the biggest form of fraud. 

Dangers in refusing abortions. A Michigan senator tells how his wife was refused an abortion for a failed pregnancy that put her health and life in danger. Rigidity is winning over realism and women's lives. 

Snapshot USA. Portland police allow left and right whackos to fight. Illogical complaint about NYC restrictions on restaurant. Consider necessity versus option. No rational person literally believes Tucker Carlson. That is the conclusion of a judge in dismissing a slander suit against him. 

Covid relief 2.0. Seems to be permanently stalled. This is another case of GOPers have no ability to handle difficult negotiations. 

Global warming factors. Broken down and explained very clearly. It would be much hotter by now if the sunspot activity had a normal cycle rather than a very low cycle. We got lucky, but humans are fucking our climate. 

Image: abcnews.go.com

The high stakes of culture Part 2

(Originally written back in January 2015, it's interesting to see where my thinking has changed. The writing remains rough, but clear enough.)

The general culture of the US is one input to the behavior of individuals, but local cultural norms are another, and probably stronger. I've written about middle-class culture, particularly the fear of losing all one's money and shifting to a day-by-day existence. I've also written about the clash between liberals' gun-less utopia and the gun owners sense of their rights and culture.

Other cultural quirks I've noticed: New York City has a sustained high rate of abortion--like many women there never seem to learn how to correctly use contraceptives. Middle-class girls are quite different--their rates of abortion have been dropping. Yeah-let's all learn about how to prevent unwanted pregnancies.

Inner city kids learn to disrespect authority: issue false denials, accuse people of racism, curse, lie. This is a generalization, as all observations of culture are. (TNC - Ta-nehisi Coates-- post on behavior/culture needed in poor area. Comments were very good but aren't available any more. One frequent commenter, Pete, a blue-collar white man from Baltimore, described a pro-education poor neighborhood.)

TNC makes the argument that the society has been exploiting blacks for the entire history--but I wonder whether he can count the past 40 years. (Yes, now in 2020 I agree with exploitation continued.) He doesn't say what society should do about this, but some commenters hint--schools as good as anywhere, possibly also true for housing, job opportunities etc. This is social engineering on a grand scale--just turn all neighborhoods into clones of middle-class neighborhoods. Not only prohibitively expensive, but also many groups haven't needed to so much external help to move into the middle class (like the immigrant groups). Some white groups have gotten mired in poverty too. Must they be engineered out poverty too? 

Here's how I feel about this: it's not a strong idea to spend so much money with little evidence investment will provide the outcome desired. This isn't the only instance I've felt this way (I feel the same way about treating cancer on my own dime.) I don't think changing schools and housing will help while the culture remains.

TNC almost follows the behavior of his youth, and calls headlines it the culture of poverty. He then gets angry when others use the term. How expectations are different and new rules learned. TNC on Cosby's cultural message. Racism creates pathology.

Big TNC article on reparations. To critique it, see what he doesn't focus on. Employment, the changes in the last 50 years, the generalization of who was hurt and who would have to have to acknowledge wrong-doing. Critique by another black columnist--this view isn't productive, so let's stick with what is more likely to be. Noah Millman thoughtful response. Conor's column with a block of good comments. Douthat writes about cultural and poverty. (Note--the talk is of a culture of poverty, but the bigger problem is all the local cultures of poverty. The particular problems grow locally with gradual diffusion, but I expect major local differences.)

Religious view. Rod Dreher lots of posts about loss of religion, loss of strictures, discipline, sense of duty. Fun post--worst cultural mistake. He's against nominalism and the emphasis on empiricism and observation. What's wrong with these (which have been so helpful in science)--denial or lack of evidence of the soul, God, etc. Science is a tough competitor.

Image: youtube.com

What went wrong with the neoliberals

 This might be a thought dump.

Neoliberalism made a lot of sense in the 80s and 90s. Liberalism had spawned some crappy outcomes, such as huge welfare rolls. There was also a huge increase in crime, though it wasn't clear that liberalism caused it. Liberalism might have been abetting it. 

Liberalism was anti-war, and also anti-military, sometimes to the point of advocating that the US get rid of nuclear weapons and greatly reduce the military. Liberalism was pro-union, and some of the unions were driving uncompetitive pay and benefits. Some liberalism bordered on communism, with the profits being vilified.

So it made sense to have a different flavor of liberalism where a strong military helped the US and the rest of world. Where unions shouldn't go crazy. Where free trade was better than protectionist tariffs. Where profits were good as long as workers shared in the benefits. Where welfare should be reformed and work emphasized. Where crime was an individual choice and was damaging to society and therefore should be prevented and punished. In many ways, neoliberalism was a better fit for the US, which is a fairly conservative country. I'm not sure why the US is such a conservative country, but it has been that way for quite a long time, maybe throughout our history. 

Yes, neoliberalism made sense. I was very much a neoliberal. But it failed to address some huge issues, though, to be fair, no other political ideology handled the issues either. The big issue was the hollowing out of American manufacturing. This affected jobs everywhere, but most strongly in the cities, where urban populations were left without decent sources of income. 

Maybe even more so, no one has found an answer to the worsening income inequality, which makes all sorts of economic situations worse. The opportunities to work hard and better oneself are diminished for all but the most entrepreneurial and risk-hardy. Job security becomes less and less, and that also means that people don't have security in their health insurance and healthcare. The middle class has been getting more and more insecure. The lower class have always been insecure, with even less chance for improvement. 

So on fundamental issue of economic well-being, neoliberals have failed the US, as has everyone. 

If I'm right and the fundamental issue is economic well-being, what should the policy plans be? That's the topic of a different post. 

Image: marketwatch.com

Extras. I found a relevant article after I wrote this. It's more historical than mine. It also fails to have an alternative. 

May/June links

(Catching up on posts started a while ago. This one originally written around so long ago it's embarrassing)

The man who recorded the confrontation and death of Ahmaud Arbery, he was very nervous about his role in the incident. He tried to distance himself and wished for justice for Arbery. Now he is also charged in the murder.

Michael Flynn in the news. Transcript of his call to the Russian ambassador.  The adviser to judge says no, you can't just drop charges against someone who pleaded guilty.

Egregious incident of stalking and harassment by ebay security employees. ebay!!!!

Trouble counting lots of absentee ballots. States need to step up and make this work better.

Qanon is strange and fascinating - not what they write, but how people are responding to this weirdness and hokey conspiracy thing. More about the origin and internals in a video with a founder of 8chan (starting at 37:46).

Bolton's book, delayed by the Trump administration, showed that quid pro quo was actually standard for Trump.

According to Steve Bannon, Trump's campaign is wobbling. Trump needs to be the president and take care of the problems, like the huge covid crisis.

Interesting law ruling from the Supreme Court that concerns tribal lands. It expands the power and independence of the tribes.

Image: chicagotribune.com

Looking back at New York City and the pandemic

(Catching up on posts started a while ago. This one originally written around 6/13/20.)

Hindsight is 20/20, they say, but Google helps sort out what we knew when. I was having an online argument with someone who said that we knew 'within a few days' that covid-19 affected mostly people over the age of 65. But did we? (No, we didn't. There were plenty of younger patients needing hospitalizations, and we didn't have a good idea of who would live and who would die until about March 20, and even then we didn't if it would be different in locales in the US.)

I also decided to check the run-up to the surge in NYC. I found two great contrasting views. The first is that the Health Department in NYC is excellent and has managed so many medical issues, so they will manage well (March 5). The other view, from an ER doctor (March 2), was that they weren't prepared at all. They didn't have tests that they needed, and they were about to be deluged. Hundreds in a few days, thousands by next week. The ER doc was right on the timing, the numbers, and the deluge.

The deluge came March 19. The number of cases nearly doubled that day. It was only one day after Governor Cuomo announced measure for reducing workforce exposure by allowing only 50% capacity at workplaces. Just two days later he announced all non-essential workplaces must close.

So New York went very quickly from a few cases to hospitals being swamped. With so little testing available, they didn't see the growing numbers but in early March, the ER doctor did, but there wasn't proof by testing. A little over two weeks later, there was the surge of admissions of those too sick to weather the illness at home. That was not so different from in Italy, where they were blase about covid-19 at the end of February, and suffered their surge on March 8.

(I may add more later.)

Image: cityandstateny.com

Overview and link dump for US demonstrations and riots

(Catching up on posts started a while ago. This one originally written around 6/9/20.)

George Floyd, a very tall, robust black man, was killed while in police custody on May 25 in Minneapolis. A police officer kept his knee of Floyd's neck for about 9 minutes while two other officers pinned his back and legs. This killed Floyd. The video of much of the incident, including the entreaties of onlookers to let him up and check his pulse, went viral and there were massive demonstrations and some rioting and looting on the next day. Demonstrations, rioting, and looting became widespread in many cities, with demonstrations happening in many cities and towns across the US.

One of the most dramatic scenes was a crowd of rioters trying to get into the CNN world headquarters. They smashed several huge lobby windows, and only a line of police kept them at bay. The crows was dispersed after about 30 minutes by teargas shot from police outside the building. The mayor of Atlanta and other notables pleaded with rioters to stop and go home.

Taking the knee, the protest symbol popularized by the football player Colin Kaepernick, became the symbol of understanding the anger at the death and police brutality in general.

At times like this, I watch a lot of eye-witness video. This one struck me. A looter in New York City is tackled by a demonstrator who yells that the looter isn't a black ally. The demonstrator grabs the looter so tight that not even two people can pull them apart. That is a lot of passion against looting.

Because there was so much vandalism and looting, rumors sprang up indiscriminately. It was people from out-of-town coming with UHauls to haul the loot away. It was antifa being funded by George Soros and placing bricks at locations where they wanted looting. Bus loads were being sent to rural areas to loot the towns there. It was false flag operations of white nationalists or Boogaloo Boys hoping to start a second civil war.

Some of the police crackdowns are harsh, and caught on video too. More people died in the looting and rioting.

Trump was flummoxed on what to do. On June 1, he tried to make a speech and take a stand, but it was a dismal attempt. He took a walk to a nearby church that had been vandalized, and held up a bible for pictures. To allow his walk to happen, thousands of peaceful protesters were hit with rubber bullets and pepper balls, punched, truncheoned (less frequent) and herded out of the way with violence. Attorney General Bill Barr was supposed in charge of the operation though he has tried to distance himself.

Tucker Carlson, who raised the alarm about the covid-19, was raising the alarm about Black Lives Matter protesters and rioters coming to YOU.

And three months later....

The demonstrations are still going on. A few new atrocities have happened or survived. This just shows (as we knew) that Floyd's killing wasn't an isolated incident. 

Image: nydailynews.com

What about hydroxychloroquine?

(Catching up on posts started a while ago. This one originally written around 6/4/20.)

I've been following this on another forum that is strictly private and invite only. But I've been alerted to some information that made me think this was worth following.

I call this drug chloroquine for short. Who wants to type more than that? Not me. (Also called HCQ, which is short enough.)

So Trump impetuously announced that this was a very promising drug. It had been tried on SARS patients with maybe some success, and then SARS disappeared. So it was looked at for covid almost immediately. Early results were very mixed. Then Trump put his foot in it, and people started snatching it up, causing shortages for the people who needed for lupus treatment. That showed how idiotic is was of Trump to mention it.

It also caused a lot of politicization of the drug. Pro-Trump people touted it. Anti-Trump people panned it. This is ridiculous because politics is totally extraneous to whether a drug works or not. Luckily I wasn't sucked into the pro- and anti-camps, and look at it just as a scientific and medical question. Does it work?

I followed leads that sounded promising. ...Maybe it had to be taken with zithromax.  ...Maybe it had to be taken with zinc. ...Maybe it was effective if taken early in the course of the disease along with zinc.

I read about a medical director at a nursing home in Texas that gave it to a bunch of patients, without getting informed consent, but good results. I read that a doctors' group (AAPS) petitioned the governor of Arizona to allow its use and submitted a group of studies. Then I read that the doctors' group is a group of conservative quacks that also contains weird anti-vaxxers. And their evidence isn't well explained so I couldn't verify that they were accurate in what they claimed. One claim I could verify: India is giving healthcare workers chloroquice as a preventative measure, and has increased the numbers receiving it. However there aren't hard numbers reported. A critique of India's decision.

Image: grainmart.in

Extras. Article with a very long thread of professionals discussing it. A report from Michigan on its trials.

Reviewing voter suppression

(Catching up on posts started a while ago. This one originally written around 5/27/20.)

Even though Republicans have discovered and are chasing a new terrifying form of voter fraud (fraud from mail-in ballots), I'm still parrying claims that they weren't doing any other kind of voter suppression, which is also known as making it harder for some (poor/old/students) to vote. So I quickly found some excellent sources on this information:

From The Guardian, an excellent state-by-state listing.

People having a tough time getting the required ID - two articles.

I'm looking forward to when the New York Times will let me read this article about Alabama.

Image: wfae.org

When the pandemic came to town

(Catching up on posts started a while ago. This one originally written around 5/15/20.)

Sometime after the first wave is done if we don't have a second wave too soon after, the US should set up a bipartisan committee to work at how we and other countries dealt with the arrival of the pandemic. Look at the preparedness and pandemic infrastructure and that kind of thing. Look at who did well and borrow the best of their ideas.

I've already started looking. Much of Asia did well, largely because they got blasted by the H1N1 pandemic, so they set up much more robust response infrastructure. Europe and the US, we were blind and dumb about it, so we're getting blasted by this pandemic.

But even in Europe, there's a contrast. I looked at Italy and Sweden. Italy was rather in denial, and more than a little angry that their tourist trade was dropping sharply. Wrong response and blind to what could happen. So there wasn't much of an official plan, not a lot of information, and the epidemic spread quietly until all hell broke loose in northern Italy. Then they had to shut down the entire country because no one knew how far it had spread. It was an object lesson to a lot of other countries, including the US.

Then there is Sweden.
 Public health measures 2/28
Workplace measures 3/4

Image: bbc.com

Extras. Great video from Italy.

Last outpost of crazy: Don't pet

Safety tip: know the dangers of your area and what to do about them. So if you live somewhere with alligators, have some idea how to handle, or not handle, alligators. Or you might end up as a wacky news item and a death statistic in the single digits. Not a good look. 

Image: 123rf.com

Don't let a pandemic stop the partisanship

Very few people are letting go of partisanship. Some examples: GOP senators want to increase the quarter-trillion dollar small business loan fund because it was exhausted in about 2 weeks. But they don't want to allow Pelosi any of her projects that would help other sectors, like state governments and hospitals. So no deal. Our way or the highway, I guess.

Republican-leaning folks are protesting lockdowns in various states, and getting encouragement from Trump. Are the protesters considering the implications in terms of life and health? Are they asking for a plan? Or are they stomping their feet was though this was all a hoax? Michigan had the biggest protest so far, and here's the view from a Michigander of the divisions within the state. It's the equivalent of 'Let 'em die.'

Election Looming

So let's strip away the dressing and lay it bare. Republicans are desperate to get the economy back on track because it was looking quite good and greatly helped their chances in the upcoming November elections.

But where are the Democrats in this? Some Republicans suspect that the Dems are gleeful over this disaster if it dooms Trump's chance at reelection, and maybe also hands the Senate to the Dems. That's a suspicion, but would any Dems in office actually try to worsen the epidemic or the economy for the electoral advantage? That's pretty bloodthirsty. However, it's clear from many comments I read that it's exactly what some Republicans think. Good luck trying to prove otherwise. It's a nasty accusation that they won't be able to back up, but they throw it to cause the suspicion and to blacken their opponents.

Dems aren't going to be completely honest either. Most aren't giving Trump credit for closing down a lot of the travel from China. They are giving him a hard time for his lack of leadership, but he richly deserves that. There was a lot of time wasted not getting prepared for this epidemic. There were warnings and information coming in to those paying attention that this virus was spreading quickly around the world, starting with areas with more travel.

This is largely a rant, so I'll follow my rules for rants, whatever they might be today. I haven't seen Dems trying to gain political advantage except for pointing out that the economy might be wrecked and the stock market is way down, so Trump can no longer claim successes with them. That's a bit weak on the causation, but fair on the result. Trump can't claim good things about the economy now because we are in a massively different situation, and it's not one caused by the Dems. It's partially caused by this black swan event, and partially by Trump's poor handling of this black swan event.

I've seen Republicans make all kinds of different arguments trying to avoid the obvious. This is fucking terrible for Trump's reelection prospects. One pundit I read has written for years that presidents will tend to get reelected unless there's a major crisis or a war that's not going well. If there's a crisis, well, the president might well be toast. This appears to be crisis beyond Trump's ability to manage. Maybe not, but probably. So Trump is clearly in trouble. I hope that isn't in dispute among the honest.

Not His Fault!

Some of the ludicrous stuff that Trump supporters have been saying: It's no worse than the flu! Trump was being impeached [so that makes it the Dems fault???]. The Chinese lied to us. Dems attacked Trump for blocking flights. Trump did a lot of things to prevent the spread. It's a lie that the National Security pandemic team was dismantled. It's a bunch of fearmongering. Don't panic. Don't buy up all the toilet paper, you idiots. Dems said we'd have a million people dead by now but it hasn't happened, so they're complete liars. Trump did take it seriously. Lockdowns aren't necessary. Lockdowns will ruin the economy just to save a few lives. Dems don't care about people losing their jobs and businesses. Dems love this, that we're all dependent on the government giving us money to survive. The suicide, murder and abuse rates are already shooting up. People aren't going to be able to take this lockdown for very long. Just wash your hands - no need to shut down the economy. It's only bad in dirty places that have Democratic governors and mayors; the rest of us shouldn't have to shut down. It's because of poor Dem hygiene practices. The governors are happy with Trump's leadership. The governors are in mutiny. This death rate isn't higher at all. Lots of deaths are labeled as covid but that's to get extra money... or make the GOP look bad. Go check your hospital and see if it's overwhelmed, or is it just a hoax? <--- And I didn't even get into the arguments about testing or personal protective equipment (PPE).

Yes, I have seen a conservative saying each one of these. I'm not making up any of them.

Dems are bashing Trump regularly, and not completely honestly either. They don't say that any leader, GOP or Dem, would be facing very difficult circumstances. Decisions have to be made with imperfect information, and not all of them will be right. So the impulse to attack everything Trump does is wrong, but many Dems are still doing that, just today bashing Trump for putting a hold on immigration. If lockdowns make sense, so does a hold on immigration, duh!

So there is reasonable cricism of Trump, and a lot of it, and there is stupid criticism of him.

Anti-News, Anti-Science

A big problem is that a lot of people won't believe information that doesn't come to them except from their stilted media. So if Fox News isn't telling them this pandemic is real, they aren't going to believe it even with the availability of reports from Lombardy, Spain, New York City, Seattle, and New Orleans. It gets even worse than that. They won't believe anyone who says something similar to MSM or experts. They are very effectively vaccinated against believing anything from anyone remotely associated with the suspect media and politicians. So they will never be convinced short of nearly dying or having someone in their family nearly die.

This total resistance to anything from experts or MSM media means that there will always be a cadre who can mutually reinforce each other. They will also fight the most sensible, well-supported information. They will attack good idea, good arguments, and good people simply because they are always on the offense, and think anyone with different ideas is brainwashed. I'm seeing so much of this.

I see Trump supporters who think that anyone who criticizes Trump over his handling of covid-19 is gleeful that people are dying by the thousands. Many people are feeling vindicated that Trump is so clearly out of his depth. I'm among those who thought that Trump would be a disaster if he ever had to handle a major crisis, and now that's exactly what he has to do, and he is handling it as poorly as we always suspected he would. There is no 'rising to the challenge' from him.

Covid flips the campaigns

Sadly, we're in this situation as the US presidential campaign heats up, so the stakes are very high. Prior to this pandemic, it looked like Trump had a very good chance of being reelected based on the economy if nothing else. But this huge crisis and the economic toll, his chances are diminished a lot, and his supporters know this. Trump and his supporters are desperate to reverse the economic losses, which accounts for their push to reduce stay-at-home orders and reopen states as soon as possible, whether it is safe or not, whether there are good plans in place or not. Reopen Now!! is what a lot are saying, and they aren't interested in evaluating the risks and rewards. Are Dems desperately trying to prevent this for electoral advantage? Not that I know of, but GOPers accuse them of this. This is also playing out in the issue of vote-by-mail.

Planning for how to handle a pandemic wouldn't generally be easy, but this one is harder than the last. This virus spreads more easily, kills somewhat more people, is mutating (not unusual), affects several organ systems, is a type of virus that isn't conducive to a vaccine, and perhaps not to immunity through antibodies either. This might be a long slog, like it was with HIV, except that this can affect many more people, but luckily our technology is much more advanced.

Advanced or not, we are in some uncharted territory. We haven't had a pandemic like this in a hundred years, and our expectations have risen very high in terms of the safety we expect. What would it be like, being on the team that has to plan the reopening of a state or country, knowing that there is no cure, no certain prevention, and more danger of death that we're accustomed to?

Image: theweek.com

Extras. A program for small businesses to continue to pay workers ran out of money in just two weeks. The parties in Congress took several extra days to sort out how to provide more funds, partly because Dems wanted to fund other groups and GOPers wanted to limit it. Both stances are based on constituencies. GOPers only want to support businesses, and Dems want to support hospitals, states, and businesses that are very small. Dems were holding the money for business ransom, trying to force Republicans to help broader groups. The GOP mostly won this time. Dems were only able to get aid earmarked for the very small businesses.

Some examples of conservative media and what they are saying about Dems reveling in this pandemic. Most are from Rush Limbaugh  (archive  here). Time series: Limbaugh1, Limbaugh2, Limbaugh3, Limbaugh4, Limbaugh5, Limbaugh6, Limbaugh7. This started with Limbaugh saying it was nothing but Dems hope it will be something  (CHECK), then it's well under control but Dems are going try to spin that Trump lied about it being under control, it's something that isn't in control but it's being weaponized against Trump. It's not just Limbaugh, it's also Townhall. Columbia Journalism Review looks at this.

Aid to red states - Good. Aid to blue states - waste. Same as with hurricane relief.

Opinions about which drug is most effective against covid are based on partisanship. That makes no sense because it should be based on test data, right? But there's the chloroquine and the remdesivir camp, and data be damned!

Opinions on masks could be based on partisanship. <Eye roll> More of that proud animosity to those wimpy scientists, liberals, and SJWs.

April 28, over 59K deaths, and someone is still declaring this a hoax.

Covid-19 resources

A helpful set of links.

I follow mostly through worldometer.

Visualize the trends highlighting a country or state and compared to others.

New York Times compares which countries have flattened the curve.

New York Times resource per county in the US.

New York Times again showing how deaths surged in the city. Definitely worse than the flu (you idiotic deniers).

A detailed article about Italy.

Possibly a good news source from experts in the field.

Where do people normally die? I wonder how many are in hospitals versus elsewhere. Here are some answers.

A source for Massachusetts deaths and their demographics. The state gateway to info.

When will states reopen?

New York Times shows five models and their predictions for the US. Having watched Italy, I don't agree with any of them. Italy shows a plateau of two weeks and a long, slow decline that is taking longer than 3 weeks. The US, as of 4/24/20, is still in the plateau phase. I don't think any of them have the plateau long enough or the decline slow enough.

A timeline for an interesting source. Lots of data and charts from a writer who was very influential in lockdowns.

Is this an indication that social distancing and lockdowns worked: slowdown in Seattle before anywhere else.

Brief summary of two covid-related autopsies.

FACTCHECKING RESOURCE

When the crisis abates, there should be a commission to investigate what happened and what measures should have been taken to avoid what was avoidable in this disaster. The 9/11 commission did a candid job, but what are the chances that a covid commission will be at liberty to be as candid with Trump as president?

New York City deaths per week (several years)

Image: nytimes.com