How the US dropped the ball with this pandemic

Hahahaha. This is way out of the area of my expertise. I see lots of people that don't let that issue stop them though as they weigh in forcefully on whether Trump disbanded a critical task force or reasonably 'streamlined' it. I couldn't say which is more accurate so I won't try.

However, I can look back and try to detect signs or significant information. Using Google with a limited window on dates showed me that school closures were considered well before social distancing became the watchword. This was true in Massachusetts, but also true in Italy, where schools were closed on March 4, but orders to avoid contact weren't issued until 3/9, if I'm not mistaken. By that time, Italy had had 366 deaths due to covid-19 and the hospitals in Lombardy had been slammed.

The school closures in Italy should have been on the radar in the US, but they weren't. However the lockdown in northern Italy did finally penetrate the thick skulls in North America, and the topic of the week from 3/9 - 3/14 was closures--colleges and universities closing, schools closing, sports events cancelled, etc.

But how about before that? What was on the radar in January and February? Too much confidence, like this:

In coming weeks, if the virus begins to spread through U.S. communities, health authorities want to be ready to adopt school and business closures like those undertaken in Asian countries to contain the disease... The CDC is taking steps to ensure frontline U.S. healthcare workers have supplies they need, she added, by working with businesses, hospitals, pharmacies and provisions manufacturers and distributors on what they can do to get ready.

The reality was quite different. Local entities and governments took the lead, with governors announcing closures without guidance from the CDC. Leadership at the federal level was sorely lacking.

Trump suddenly changed tack on 3/16, having daily press conferences starting then. But his lack of leadership had already been demonstrated. There will be plenty of time to dissect what Trump did wrong though of course it's already started. The head of the CDC is a political favorite of religious conservatives. And here's a blistering account of how the Trump administration disrespects scientists, again and again and again and again. I couldn't read it all.

Italy was a wake-up call to me. However, the federal government is supposed to be more aware than a single individual, what with all its resources and intelligence gathering. This has been quite a failure, even worse than 9-11 because the virus wasn't hiding. Thank God for the governors who did take the lead. They are more the model for our next president.

Image: ourworldindata.org

Extras. A resource of states' healthcare capacities, and how they are likely to fall short. I switched my dashboard to this one.  Also, I only look at deaths. The number of cases is too dependent on test availability, whereas deaths are more solid. However there can be undercounts (for those who die at home with no test) or even overcounts (attributing deaths to covid-19 without ample evidence).

Update 3/30/20. While New York City is slammed, ICU usage in Los Angeles doubles overnight. LA appears to be managing it thus far. How Congress was distracted in January and February. Trump has a short attention span when he's supposed to be saving the country. But he gives up and takes the experts' advice. These are the times that try men's souls ... especially libertarians. A supermarket chain that carefully prepared for a pandemic.

Update 4/2/20. I started wondering about the cruise ship overrun by covid-19, and found this overview of several cruises and this firsthand account from a worker. The story of another cruise ship and one of its passengers who died.

Herd immunity wasn't ever the plan in the UK--it was bad communication and maybe someone picked up on the wrong term. Well, maybe. I'm not convinced because it looks like the plans got changed rather swiftly to 'shelter-in-place.' One of the big names in the confusion thinks there's some good news. Been there, and then tomorrow came and smashed it. Canada did good! Hungary declares Orban as dictator indefinitely. Wisconsin's governor won't/didn't take the fucking step to postpone the primary. Uhhh, clueless. (I got this wrong. It was the GOP-led legislature that wouldn't act. They put partisan power above the good of the citizens.) And don't have a cardiac arrest in New York City right now. You won't be going to a hospital. However, bear in mind that the survival rate is less than 10% in these circumstances in the best of times.

I'll check back here when I want to compare covid to the flu.