Sunday, April 27, 2014

Not an ideal hero

Is it my imagination or do the conservatives in this country make poor choices for their everyday heroes? They have rallied around George Zimmerman, who turned out to be a bad choice. Now there's Cliven Bundy--rancher, scofflaw, squatter, citizen of sovereign Nevada, and part-time constitutional scholar. We can also add embarrassing racist to the list too.

Two isn't much of a list, but can I add Ben Carson? There's also Herman Cain, Joe the plumber, and on the more professional side there are Ted Cruz and Sarah Palin.

Cliven Bundy, just like George Zimmerman, should have triggered warning bells. He doesn't acknowledge the U.S. government as sovereign. Yet he's mixed up enough to talk about the Constitution, and I don't think he's referring to the the Nevada state constitution either. He hasn't paid the fees for grazing his cattle for decades (or maybe ever) and he thinks he owns the land they graze on. What are the chances that he pays his federal taxes? Not high, I'm guessing. Yet a bunch of conservative pundits rallied around him, undeterred by his questionable legal status and questionable judgment. A bunch have had to temper their enthusiasm in light of his racist remarks.

He's certainly an attractive figure for gun rights whackos. He's protectin' his property from those dang lawless federales, who would take his property (and yours) if you gave them a chance. He collected a lot of people who'd enjoy a showdown with federal agents, but the agents didn't give it to them. That was probably wise, though it depends on how many people decide to copy the strategy.

Conservative hero worship is earned too easily, rarely recanted, and then the mistake is repeated again. The worship commences based on some big action, not quiet, thoughtful deeds. Conservatives could find thousands of heroes if being a hero wasn't based on shooting someone or disrespecting Obama to his face. But they choose what they choose, and evidently they choose the ones who provide red meat. That's dumb, but it's going to happen again and again.

Image: news.google.com


Another reason conservatives should be more careful--the left-leaning MSM will search for the Achilles heel of their hero, and report it with fanfare.

Update 7/28/14. George Zimmerman is positioning himself to shoot someone again. This guy is either stupid or sick. 

Saturday, April 26, 2014

Short: Popping the academia bubble

I'm no fan of academia, possibly because I know it too well. I grew up in an academic family, live in a college town, and am related to too many people with doctorates of one type or another. My form of rebellion has been to firmly resist all entreaties to get a master's degree, and to skewer academia as often as warranted.

So I had queued up an article on bloat on campus. But the problem isn't whiny faculty, it's too many goddamned administrators. I procrastinated on reading this article for 2.5 months (wow, just like me as an undergrad), but it's actually worth a read. And it has a very good suggestion: the faculty senate should audit the university, and make all the waste public knowledge. Excellent!

Image: mu-comics.blogspot.com

Rant about healthcare spending

I'm fed up with conservatives who complain that Obamacare is going to bankrupt the country but never turn their gaze on Medicare. The message seems to be that other people can spend buckets of government cash on healthcare, but NOT YOU. You are scum because you don't have employer-provided insurance.

There is no acknowledgement of the real problems in the healthcare system. Here's a big example: how many people know that current Medicare taxes aren't covering current Medicare expenses? I heard this mentioned in passing this week, and it was news to me. If we can't even cover our current Medicare expenses, why isn't that information all over the news? It should be a common point when talking about spending, similar to how everyone mentions the yearly deficit and the national debt now being $17 trillion.

Yet it's not mentioned frequently. The fact is that general revenues are paying for more than 45% of our Medicare costs, meaning that other programs are squeezed. And the BABY BOOMERS HAVEN'T EVEN STARTED GETTING OLD YET.

When are we going to start reining in Medicare? I'd cynically say probably not while we have elections and seniors turn out in high numbers, but I don't think we can wait that long. We need some method to force people and doctors to stop this gorging. We've got to start saying "no," but that means saying "no" when life and health are on the line. I don't know if we can do that. We may believe that we have to spend on our healthcare, no matter how much.

Will it be possible to cut back? If so, how? The easiest way is to cut what's ineffective. That means gathering the statistics, and then convincing or forcing doctors not to order the ineffective treatments. We'll probably need to cut barely effective treatments too. I've read of cancer patients being referred for a fourth round of treatment that's known to extend life for only three months. What is the cost? Would you decrease your own bank account $100K per month to extend your life? If not, then you probably shouldn't decrease the country's resources either.

This also means giving comfort care and end-of-life treatment to frail elders instead of hospital care and expensive ICU treatment. Perhaps we shouldn't be trying to save extremely premature babies and people with very severe head trauma. Yes, we will have all these life-saving and life-extended technology that we will purposefully not use because it costs too much.

As I said above, I don't know if we can do that, just let it alone and not jump in with all that. Our track record isn't good.

Image: smh.com.au

What started this rant? The idea that Ben Carson, the neurosurgeon religious black conservative darling can save us. That and finding out that the Medicare payroll tax isn't covering even 55% of our Medicare spending.

Extra. Healthcare costs are growing faster again after a five-year slowdown.

Monday, April 21, 2014

The Cloward-Piven conspiracy/strategy is REAL!

You can't trust anything out of Glenn Beck's mouth, so I was surprised to find out that the Cloward-Piven strategy actually existed.

The Truth According to Glenn Beck

Cloward and Piven were sociologists who came up with a strategy in the 1960s to increase government spending on welfare to the point of destabilizing government. At that point, the government would change to socialist or communist. Cloward and Piven executed a lot of their strategy in New York City, but there have been setbacks, such as welfare reform. Nonetheless, their strategy is still underpinning Democratic policies, such as the stimulus, ACA, Dodd-Frank, and any Democratic voting laws.

Strangely, Beck doesn't evaluate how well or poorly the strategy is going. He gives no current numbers on how many people are dependent on government or how soon that burden will topple us. I guess a reality check isn't Beck's thing when he's on a roll. Instead, he announces "case closed."

The Truth According to Wikipedia

This is where I learned the shocking truth that Glenn Beck wasn't totally full of shit. Cloward and Piven did indeed want to create a fiscal crisis, which they write frequently about here (a transcription of their original article). They advocated signing up as many poor people as possible for welfare and other programs, and making sure that they receive the maximum legal benefits. The reason was primarily to put huge strains on the government, but also to get more money into the hands of the poor, to rally the support among the poor for political change, and to provide a stronger, more reliable electoral base for the Democratic Party.

Contra Glenn Beck, the stated goal wasn't total annihilation of the government, but instead direct payment from the federal government to every person. This wasn't a well thought-out goal. There was no math in their proposal--how much the payments would be to each person, how that would affect the economy, how the money would be raised.

Cloward and Piven admit some problems with their plan:
"A welfare crisis would, of course, produce dramatic local political crisis, disrupting and exposing rifts among urban groups... Group conflict, spelling political crisis for the local party apparatus, would thus become acute as welfare rolls mounted and the strains on local budgets became more severe. In New York City, where the Mayor is now facing desperate revenue shortages, welfare expenditures are already second only to those for public education.
...welfare costs are generally shared by local, state and federal governments, so that the crisis in the cities would intensify the struggle over revenue... If the past is any predictor of the future, cities will fail to procure relief from this crisis... for state legislatures have been notoriously unsympathetic to the revenue needs of the city (especially where public welfare and minority groups are concerned).
If this strategy for crisis would intensify group cleavages, a federal income solution would not further exacerbate them... legislative measures to provide direct income to the poor would permit national Democratic leaders to cultivate ghetto constituencies without unduly antagonizing other urban groups, as is the case when the battle lines are drawn over schools, housing or jobs. Furthermore, a federal income program would ... permanently relieve them of the financially and politically onerous burdens of public welfare*--a function which generates support from none and hostility from many, not least of all welfare recipients.
... it should also be noted that there would be gains even in defeat."
Cloward and Piven were enamored with crisis as a vehicle for political change. They observed that the Great Depression and the black protests and riots were very effective in spurring legislation. However, they were quite wrong about the how the welfare burden crisis would play out. The federal government never came close to giving direct payments to every person. The closest was a short-lived proposal in 1972 by presidential candidate George McGovern, who was defeated in a landslide. Instead, welfare more and more became a target for derision as failed social engineering. Welfare reformers from the conservative side haven't been wonderfully successful in changing welfare dependency either.

Cloward and Piven moved on, and were leaders in the push for the Motor-Voter law. If not for Glenn Beck, we probably wouldn't know about this earlier plan of theirs.

The Truth According to the Daily Kos

An author at the Daily Kos points out that had Obama wanted to follow the Cloward-Piven strategy, he would have tried to torpedo TARP, causing even more disruption in employment. That would have provided an even bigger crisis, which would have allowed for nationalization of a bunch of industries, even larger increases in aid programs like food stamps and unemployment payments. The author also doubts that there was a Cloward-Piven strategy, but instead it was only one article.

Truth Filter

From my experience, I'm inclined to think that Cloward and Piven did have a plan, but that plan wasn't fully implemented and didn't work as mapped out. There were crises from welfare demands, but the solution didn't take the form of direct checks to the poor. I doubt that Cloward and Piven's vision was particularly influential. It's not was though welfare or community organizing didn't exist until Cloward and Piven created them. Welfare most likely would have developed just as it did, regardless of these two.

That's a big problem. These two saw welfare as a way to alleviate poverty and build a political base, but they didn't see welfare as a subsistence trap. They didn't discuss the perils of living off of guaranteed low-level income such as losing the drive to improve and losing the skills and habits of working. That consideration didn't seem to enter their consciousness at all.

Richard Cloward died in 2001, but Piven has continued their work. She still supports direct payment from the federal government to all citizens and residents. The payments should be substantial enough for people to live in dignity. This means that employers will have to pay even more since their competition is a substantial handout.

Piven doesn't see any difficulty with this idea. She doesn't question how tasks will get done if everyone could be paid for not working, or the effect of a surge in wages on living costs. She also states that the US is a fabulously rich country, rich enough to afford wars all over the globe. Piven clearly lives in a self-made fantasy world. She is incredibly clueless when it comes to economics. Sad that she's been a professor for decades now, so she's been teaching these economically ignorant ideas to a couple generations already.

I suppose the good news is that I don't hear many other people repeating those ideas. The vast majority of people want jobs, not payouts for just hanging around. Cloward and Piven never got the welfare system they wanted, the direct federal payment system they wanted, or the more socially equal society they wanted. Most people wised up and realized that world vision was an impossibility. That's good progress there.

Protest in Boston, 1966
Image: thenation.com

P.S. Direct connection between Barack Obama and Cloward-Piven: none except in Glenn Beck's mind.

Friday, April 18, 2014

The invisible primary clarifies everything

I learned this concept from Jonathan Bernstein, the only political commentator who has stayed interesting to me. (Others, like Josh Barro, seem great, but it only lasts for a short time.)

The invisible primary is the contest before the presidential primaries start. It consists of potential or declared candidates visiting early primary states, talking, occasionally staking out positions, occasionally attacking one another, wooing donors, and most of all wooing the important party players who have influence on swathes of voters, usually within one state.

I've learned a lot about the Republican invisible primary, but not so much about the Democratic version. Maybe in 2020 it will be in play, but 2016 isn't looking too likely.

Here are links to some of good posts on the invisible primary. If you don't know this concept yet, you have a wonderful learning experience in store:

  • Bernstein on watching the developing party agenda.
  • Long but great article about the GOP invisible primary. Very readable.
  • How someone decides to jump in.
  • Related to Rand Paul.

Image: examiner.com

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Who pays taxes?

Do lower income people pay their fair share of taxes? Look at this graph from the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank:

Image: heritage.org


Wow, the lowest 20% of earners pay almost nothing in taxes. The top 20% bear, let's see, 69% of the tax burden. How horribly unfair.

Until you look at this graph:

Image: mayfieldeconclass.blogspot.com

Here we see that the top 20% may pay 69% of taxes, but they also suck up 50% of all the income. The richest fifth get half of the pie. How much of the pie do the lowest fifth get? Just 3%. How much of the tax burden should we expect them to bear?

Before you complain about how little some folks pay into the system, look at how little is paid to them.

Old question: Who benefited the most from tax cuts?

Back in 2012, one of the issues was who benefited the most from the Bush tax cuts. Dems said the rich did. Repubs said it was everyone. Now, finally, here's a graph that shows who benefited: (Click on the graph to enlarge.)

Image: nytimes.com

Look at the left-most 10% of the graph and see that rates declined much more steeply for higher incomes than for lower. This graph is based on effective tax rate and includes payroll taxes.

Low-wage workers are more affected by changes in payroll taxes and much less by income tax rate cuts. It's the opposite for high-income earners. Since the Bush tax cuts lower income taxes, but not payroll taxes, low-income workers saw little benefit. This was also shown by figures on how the end of the tax cuts would affect different earners. Again, lower-income workers would see less of an increase by percent (about 4%). Higher income earners would see a 8% increase.

Here's another interesting tax-related graph: Who gains from tax breaks--those credits, deductions, and exclusions that lower our tax bills. This graph shows the actual shares of these tax breaks and how much accrues to different segments from the lowest 20% to the highest 0.1%. The biggest winners (in light blue) are the 80-99% of top earners. However, look at the share that the top 0.1% (in dark blue) get. An excellent aspect of the graph is that the areas (dark brown, tan, light blue, etc.) directly represent the actual share of the money. You could imagine them as stacks of bills given to the groups.


Image: theatlantic.com

However, this isn't just a give-away of tax dollars to the well-off. Higher earners pay much more of taxes than do lower earner. They also pay marginal rates (currently running 38%) that are much higher than tax rates on lower earners. If exclusions came down, marginal rates probably should too.