What will this strategy bring? Here are my predictions for the likely outcomes:
- The GOP doesn't hold together in its talking points, and enough of the GOP members of Congress fold and pass a status quo budget. The hardcore are again disappointed in their desire to make a stand.
- The GOP holds together well enough that negotiations fall apart, and a government shutdown ensues. After a few days (less than a week), the civilian clamor is too great, and the GOP folds, passing a status quo budget. The Tea Party faction finally gets proof that it doesn't have the power it imagines it has.
- The Dems fold and give the GOP substantial concessions. The Tea Party view is confirmed.
Sometimes I think that most people with their eyes open already know this, including most people in government. That's why they aren't working on reform plans for Social Security, Medicare, or the tax code. It would just be wasted effort.
However, there is the noisy rump of the Republican Party that still thinks they can have their way despite the outcome of the most recent election. Now, what I can't explain is why they cling to that belief. I can speculate, though. They live in very conservative areas where their views aren't questioned, and therefore they wrongly feel that they are in the majority. The news media they listen to (talk radio, Fox News) reinforces this view of superior numbers by neglecting to point out evidence of the larger political world. But there's no stopping reality, their delusions not withstanding.
I wonder how many years the delusion can endure? On this question, I'm not making a prediction, but I welcome the predictions of others.
Extras. The hero worship of Ted Cruz. RedState's Erickson tells the GOP to be tough, just like they [weren't] on tax increases.