Shellenberger plagiarizes. Maui burns.

Michael Shellenberger, who I don't know from anyone until he signed up for the Elon Musk shill squad on the Twitter Files, is a hack journalist desperately trying not to appear as a hack. I haven't seen him not be a right-wing hack so far, so he seems to have picked his side. 

So he wrote about the high-fatality wildfire on Maui and headlined it this way:

Renewables Mania and Woke Dogma Behind Hawaii Fire, Not Climate Change

Of course it's a bunch of rubbish that he doesn't even support with citations. Plus he appears to be a denialist about climate change because it pays well. But it's funny how he plagiarizes in his tweet: 

"It is unambiguous that Hawaiian Electric’s grid experienced immense stress for a prolonged time," said one analyst. "There were dozens and dozens of major faults on the grid and any one of those could have been the ignition source for a fire."

..."I was already fighting with the electric company because they never maintain the lines," said a fifth-generation Hawaii resident who lives on a family farm.

Compare that to this unreferenced WaPo article:

"It is unambiguous that Hawaiian Electric's grid experienced immense stress for a prolonged time," Marshall said, comparing the fluctuating data to the grid's stable readings from weeks and months prior. "There were dozens and dozens of major faults on the grid and any one of those could have been the ignition source for a fire."

..."I was already fighting with the electric company because they never maintain the lines," said Rivers, a fifth-generation Hawaii resident who lives on her family’s 40-acre farm.

It's great when people confirm their lack of ethics.  

Shellenberger - Hack journalist for hire

Image:linkedin.com

Extras. Reporting on the delay in getting water. Elsewhere I've read that the common people are last in line for water while the hotels, resorts, golf courses, and farmers control the distribution. 

This is somewhat a story about climate change, but moreso a story of ignoring facts on the ground. A high risk of wildfire doesn't come out of nowhere. There are signs weeks in advance. However Maui didn't pay attention or didn't plan. The question is why. Local reports with comments> one, two, three.  

Jan. 6 trials and their results

The trials of the various Jan. 6 rioters and coup-plotters is a very long process, so I'll start this post and keep adding to it. Therefore it will be incomplete, and perhaps mostly a mess. 

Oathkeepers. They were highly involved in the Stop the Steal rhetoric and protests, emphasizing that they were willing to due Trump's bidding and defeat the deep state. Rhodes used rhethoric like "if we don't, there will be no more republic." They did appear to have a plan to infiltrate Congress and intimidate the elected officials and stop the peaceful, orderly transfer of power based on the certified election results. "We are sticking together and sticking to the plan,"  texted Jessica Watkins that afternoon. It wasn't a good plan or a successful plan, but it was a plan, and that is sedition. Testimony here. 

A juror talks about the Oathkeepers trial and the deliberations. She was very focused on the evidence, as was a lawyer in the jury. They had to overcome the bias of some jurors against any convictions. Some of the damning messages between Oathkeepers that led to convictions. 

A DC police officer fed information to Tarrio, head of the Proud Boys. 

Scientists and others argue about the origin of covid-19

This is fun. Normally it would only be a discussion among scientists doing expert research in virus evolution. However it seems like lots of people get into the game because of the huge global effect and the distrust of government authorities, scientists, and people in general. 

I have a good science background, but not much that will help me with virus genetics or the questions of whether covid-19 was engineered in some ways. Of course, nature itself is a great accidental engineer. A few genetic changes, some recombinant mix-ins, and lots of biological bodies to pass it all around, and many things can happen to a virus. 

But did people (in China) fool around with coronoviruses and make covid-19? Would there be telltale signs of human fiddling? I can't answer that based on my experience. Nor am I getting that information from scientific articles. I can believe that splicing leaves signs, but nothing confirms it. 

Some of the information in clearer forms:

Evidence that covid-19 isn't engineered. 

The furin cleavage site in covid is very unusual. However furin cleavage sites aren't uncommon, but maybe none is quite like covid's. A study on a bunch of furin cleavage sites. I'm not sure if it's relevant and what it means.

Then there are some government reports. A very long report from a senator on origins. Assessments from the US Director of National Intelligence in 2021 and 2023. 

There are also reports about experiments conducted at Wuhan Institute of Virology, but it's hard to say that they clearly indicate anything. Talk about recombinant virus experiments, etc. aren't by themselves proof that the actual covid virus was from WIV. We'd have to know the details of the genomes, wouldn't we? But none of it seems clear right now, and China has reason to cover up any information and make it murky. 

Perhaps these experiments will be clarified sometime. Speculation swirls in the meantime, including about this proposal for research and its mentions of furin cleavage sites on pages 13 and 41.

One thing I strongly believe. Intelligence investigations aren't going to tell us the origin. The strongest information isn't going to come from spies, intelligence analysts, or congress people arguing about gain of function. It's going to come from scientists and their discussions of the evidence in genomes and blood samples. So if scientists aren't leading the discussions, I'm going to discount the information. 

Image: American Chemical Society

Extras. Vanity Fair covid article based on intelligence, not genome. Timeline of covid origin. Claim that origin is wild, based on genomic evidence.

June interesting links

The Wagner group commander ranted about the war, supplies, and Russian military leadership as he proclaimed victory in a Ukrainian city. 

Reading a review of the 2001 anthrax response 10 years later. I learned that the CDC thought every state and major city needed a biolab capable of certain rapid testing. Fast-forward to 2022, I wonder if this explains the US-funded biolabs in Ukraine? I also learned that the CDC at the time didn't know the dangers of anthrax on mail handlers in bulk facilities. They thought it wasn't a danger, but that was wrong. 

This past year has had an explosion of artificial intelligence apps for artwork and writing. The artwork is wonderful, and some find the writing apps helpful for handling dull writing tasks. But don't use it for fact-based work that requires accuracy. Allegedly a lawyer used it for a brief in a civil suit, and ChatGPT produced bogus citations. Or maybe the lawyer lied and blamed ChatGPT. Here's an example of ChatGPT eagerly lying when asked about the accomplishments of an academic. In a 2018 article, he wrote that "a diverse workforce helps us think about problems differently, come up with new solutions, and approach the world in a more nuanced way." Except the academic never wrote on that topic, so the 2018 article and the quote are fabrications.

El Salvador has had gang problems for decades, but the latest president has made significan headway against them. Hopefully I'll keep an eye on it, see if it lasts, and see if other countries can copy the strategies. 

I don't usually recommend videos because you can't skim them. However this one is fast-paced and full of good critique of the Trump indictment for mishandling classified material. 

One poll which makes Biden look very good. Who are you sure you won't vote for? Maybe we need more polls that ask who you definitely don't want to see as president. That's often the way people are motivated to vote. 

Image: monmouth.edu

Assorted fascinating links

I've often read about the alleged conspiracy of the CIA and contra drug smugglers to introduce a new cheap form of cocaine into black communities, and how it started with south central Los Angeles. The reporting series was done by the San Jose Mercury News. I haven't read it but instead have read the critiques of it. This is the most detailed, and it shoots down most of the theory. Black people and black communities in the US have been badly mistreated for hundreds of year, but this was probably not perpetrated on them. Many other wrongs were. 

Fighting over which organizations are the true Trumpers. Gag! For a terrible, fascistic narcissist to have organizations fighting to be his representative on earth--why would that happen? Peter Navarro claims to be the true messenger. The evil ones include the America First Policy Institute with Larry Kudlow and Bobby Jindal. They're trying to con Trump and slip in their own candidate as the MAGA heir. 

Boris Johnson got outsted from his party leadership for being a boorish liar. Why didn't Trump? Good question. 

US prisons released thousands due to covid and only 17 were rearrested. This provides lessons for who and how to release prisoners, save money, be compassionate, and make life better. 

The Michigan GOP doubles down on right wing nutters with their election of an election-fraud diehard as state chair. 

Liar extraordinaire, unapologetic hatemonger, and possibly the worst person in the US, Alex Jones is finally facing some much deserved reckoning. This civil trial, in Austin, TX, is about the monetary judgement against him. He was in contempt of the original trial, didn't cooperate to such a degree that there was a default judgement against him.

Dominion Voting Systems settled its suit with Fox News for over $750 million on the day jury selection was to start. It's hugely embarrassing for Fox. Google will help with the links, I'm sure. All The Texts Fox News Didn't Want You to Read, but you can, snicker, snicker. 

I didn't write anything about the 2022 midterm elections, which were anticipated to be a blow-out hurting the Dems because of inflation, but didn't turn out that way. Here's a report on voter sentiment just after the election. 69% think the midterms were fair. 50% hate the Democratic party. 53% hate the GOP. No one is winning a popularity contest. 

TRUMP IS FINALLY INDICTED. In New York, for fraudulent business reporting or something? Reactions are delicious. Also about Trump: he is the focus of a major political movement. This is different from life as usual because a fairly large number of people are motivated to make changes.

The House held a hearing on China which wasn't just grandstanding. The focus was that there is an existential struggle between China and the US. I have my doubts about this. China has been a country for millenia, so they're unlikely to disappear. The US is a much newer country but still almost 250 years old, and quite vigorous. Neither seems likely to disappear for any reason, much less due to another country an ocean away. 

Image: youtube.com

Vague thoughts on trans issues

I have some trans friends, but not prolonged direct contact with trans issues. Because of that, my opinions haven't been tested in real life. So that's a big caveat.

Trans issues haven't been much on my radar, so I was surprised to find out how much change was occurring before 2020. Turns out it was a lot, and I missed almost all of it. I had to go back and see when Caitlyn Jenner made her announcement, but I wasn't very impressed. After all, it came from one of the Kardashian clan, whom I don't esteem at all. (By the way, it was 2015.)

There was the North Carolina bathroom bill fracas in 2016, but that was pretty much shut down with boycotts. Which was good because bathrooms weren't rendered unsafe by trans women. None of the women I know were worried about it. It was mostly fathers beating their chests instead of letting the women and girls speak for themselves. 

Heating up

So maybe trans issues exploded in 2021-2 when US kids went back to schools after covid. I have to wonder if the timing shows that US conservatives needed new issues. Two big new issues, trans rights (and treatment for trans kids) and critical race theory were centered on schools. But I don't have the proof, so it's just a speculation. 

When it comes to trans issue, I'm not that well informed. However, my scientific and healthcare backgrounds help me to some tentative ideas about it. I think trans, like same-sex attraction, are real human characteristics, and not just pathology or perversion. I know trans people for whom life is much more stable, productive, and rewarding, so that rules out it always being a pathology. So, using the experience of gay rights, let's jump to assuming that it's not a pathology without evidence in the individual cases. 

Trans identification has soared in recent years, so what does that indicate? I think the growth is partly due to increased awareness, partly due to having terms for what people were experiencing, and partly fads or social contagion. Considering the vast changes in numbers, I disagree that best practices for transition are known now. It was too rare before, and the major changes mean that there hasn't been enough time yet to digest those changes and develop tested, confirmed best practices. At this point, they are at best best guesses. 

When it comes to puberty blockers, again best practices aren't known at this time. I don't believe claims that they don't have downsides--it hasn't been studied well enough to know. 

With Solutions, More Problems Come

When it comes to detransitioners, that is a real phenomenon, and points to inadequate counseling. However detransitioning is a cause celebre on the right, so some of it might be publicity whoring. Also, high barriers to transition treatment has problems too. Trans folks bitterly complain about gatekeeping, where they have to repeatedly prove to the 'experts' that they deserve the treatment, thereby treating them more like children than mature adults. 

A big part of the current backlash is centered on trans women and the lesbian and/or feminist community. Some in the community reject trans women as actually being males who are pretending to be women for unclear reasons. Here are men again trying to take over! There have been very awkward arguments about whether lesbians can reject sexual relations with trans women as not being lesbian relations. I strongly support respecting individual preferences, which is why straight people can be straight, bi people can be bi, gay people can be gay, lesbians can be lesbians. Don't tell people who they have to sleep with. 

There's also the issue of athletic competition. Based on my knowledge of anatomy and physiology, I think it's fair to exclude trans women from women's competitive sports. For leisure leagues, why not let whoever play? 

Another important aspect to realize is that no person can undo their genetics or completely remake their body. Surgical penises and vaginas don't function nearly as well as homegrown. That's the biological reality at this time, and it should be spelled out clearly to anyone considering the surgery. Many trans people don't get those surgeries, and it's not a requirement for living as a trans person. Society at large doesn't need to know what's happening with a person's genitals. Clothing has made it a non-issue long before current times. 

Image: transequality.org

Extras. I didn't put a lot of links here because this is more based on my impressions than solid research, which is hard to do in this period of major flux. The very complex story of a US trans woman who also detransitioned but not completely. Another detransitioner who is now identifying as a lesbian. The stories I hear from my friends are joy that they can be their real selves. Those stories deserve representation so here are some traditional ones and also more modern ones. 

Link to downloads of the UK reviews of transgender care. 

A timeline of accusations of grooming leveled at LGBT folks. The grooming accusations may already have peaked because it was that rampant (accusations, not real grooming). 

Update 6/25/24. Link to something called the WPATH files. Like the twitter files, this is somewhat of a hit job, and still has lots of primary source information. 

Finally the Durham report lands

Republicans have been looking for a white knight who will finally prove that the deep state conspired to support Hillary Clinton and block Trump as much as possible. Sadly for them, evidence for this has been spotty, and there were never enough connections with the evidence that existed to make a convincing story of it. The Inspector General Michael Horowitz was supposed to blow the whole mess wide open, but he didn't come through. So Durham was the next and probably last white knight. 

Durham really tried to deliver. However it's rather hard if you can't fabricate evidence. When you're stuck with lackluster evidence, you just shine it up as much as possible, and this is what Durham did. 

Mostly he hammers on the FBI for moving too aggressively to a full investigation instead of a smaller investigation. He also hammers on the FISA warrant application, but that's a repeat of the criticism from IG Horowitz, so not new info. 

So it's page after page of Durham droning on about the FBI agents being too serious, not gentle enough, not having a light enough touch, being tougher on Trump campaign officials than Hillary campaign officials. Why were they so hot to investigate more deeply? Gee, Durham seems to think it was bias against Trump, and nothing to do with the unprecendented hacking and release of DNC documents. 

New from the Durham report: The Clinton Plan

I did learn something new from the Durham report. I'm not sure how I missed it, but back in late July 2016, some intelligence floated in that Hillary Clinton approved a campaign plan (the Clinton plan) to fabricate information and spin that Trump was conspiring with the Russians. This plan (which was just an allegation that floated in from somewhere unspecified) wasn't taken seriously by the intelligence community, so they didn't seriously look into whether there was such a plan and it was being executed. 

Now a lot of conservatives thought or still think that this is real. The deep state (which includes Hillary) did join together to fabricate the Russia hoax, and it was wildly successful. 

I knew about the deep state version of the theory, but not the Clinton plan version. The deep state version has Brennan, Hillary, Susan Rice, Obama, Biden, Comey, Clapper, FusionGPS and some others, and it's been around since before the 2016 election. I didn't hear about the Clinton Plan version until the Durham report. 

There are data points that support the deep state conspiracy theory, including the existence of Crossfire Hurricane, the Steele dossier, the texts between Page and Strzok, unmasking of names in intelligence, etc. However, a more likely explanation is that the US does have counterintelligence agencies, and they are activated in the case of Russians fucking acting like assholes and interfering in US elections. So having an investigation like Crossfire Hurricane is a reasonable and legitimate response to the fucking hacking. Unmasking--reasonable! Obama briefed--reasonable! And so on. 

The Steele dossier was a typical kind of opposition research, but it sure backfired, so that was a mistake, and it's on Hillary. The moral of that episode is not to get your oppo research from disreputable folks like Russia intelligence sources. Just don't do it because it's likely to be shit and you don't want contact with it. 

Image: sunjournal.com

Extras. Horowitz report. Wittes of Lawfare is slowly digesting the Durham report. A 2018 version of the Russiagate conspiracy theory. This article may contain the best synopsis of the Clinton Plan. However there isn't a lot there. Clinton hardly had to invent fibs about Trump and Russia because Russia and Trump were creating so much ammunition on their own.