Short: Inside the fake hope of a Romney win

I found it hard to believe that Romney conned himself into believing he would win. Here is a much-cited article about his campaign's own polling. Even according to his own polls, Romney wouldn't have won, but it would've been closer.

Interesting reading, but it changes nothing. Individual polls aren't reliable, but aggregating helps. Getting out the vote, which Obama's organization did very well, is the best way to win in a close election. It also helps to have a larger potential base, that is, fewer people whom you've pissed off during the campaign.

Image: tnr.com

Screw the "greater good"

That appears to be the position of the leadership of both parties. Neither party wants to risk the blame for the pain of budget cuts, so they're both saying "You first." 

• The GOP is essentially making the same proposal that they did throughout 2011, but with a little more tax collected from high earners. For this paltry sacrifice, they want all their proposed spending cuts from the Ryan budget enacted.

• The Dems want the top rate to rise, partially to humiliate the GOP with their tax pledges. When it comes to additional spending cuts, the Dems are making the paltry offerings.

It looks like without a presidential election to force them into good behavior, our politicians revert to spoiled partisan children. They want what they want, and the other guys will just have to give in.

Look at last year. A 2% tax increase was at stake, and the GOP caved after trying to get concessions for 2 months. Now a 4% tax increase is looming, but neither side is willing to bargain. Perhaps the threat needs to be bigger, like a full government shutdown, before these bitter opponents stop grandstanding.

By the way, I'm not talking about just the GOP. The Dem offer is at the same level of blind stubbornness as the GOP position is. Did we just reelect this brats? I'm afraid so.

 Man the trenches!

Image: wattwork. blogspot.com

Extras. The Ryan budget cuts: broadly outlined without specifics (p.64). A thumb guide to the stages of negotiations.

The Journal's Walking Dead series

Last weekend Karl Rove had an extended interview with the Wall Street Journal. This weekend it was Grover Norquist.

That's two weeks in a row that the Wall Street Journal has featured the politically dead or mortally wounded. What is the message or strategy of the Journal? Is it telegraphing the names of the goners among conservative pols/pundits, and are these interviews their valedictories?

Damn, now I'm hooked. I have to watch next week to see who the next corpse is.

Next week: Ann Coulter?

Image: chud.com

... or maybe the US Chamber of Commerce.

Update 12/1/12. The Wall Street Journal interviewed House whip Kevin McCarthy (paywalled). Probably a boring episode, and he may not even be politically dead.

Short: Your cost share of the fiscal cliff

How much will you have to pay if Congress doesn't work out a deal on taxes before the end of the Bush tax cuts on Jan. 1, 2013? Prognosticators and economists have been warning us for awhile that it would pitch the US economy back into recession. I hope Congress can reach a deal, but in case it doesn't, how bad will it be?

A cut of about 4% for most people

We're probably losing the Social Security 2% tax holiday anyway, so the end of the Bush tax cuts means an extra 2% loss for most of us. That's not as bad as I feared.

Worse will be the job losses if we tip into recession. I'd like to avoid that if we can. The most plausible way is to minimize the cuts for the lower and middle class --preferably just the 2% paycheck cut from reinstating the full Social Security tax.

The effect on the upper income earners... I don't know what it will do to the economy. I'm curious to find out, but also a bit fearful.

Image: gobankingrates.com

Sources:
Readable numbers from MarketWatch.
More numbers, still fairly readable, from Yahoo News.
Scenarios from BankRate, including which pieces will hurt different groups the most.

The sixth sense of Grover Norquist

Here's another politician who's dead and doesn't acknowledge it. Last time it was Newt Gingrich. This time it's Grover Norquist. The Wall Street Journal just published a long interview with him where he tries to buck up the troops in Congress to hold the line on taxes.

"Going over the fiscal cliff, that's not so bad," he seems to say [not his actual words]. Here are his actual words about the fiscal cliff: [It is] "a completely invented crisis. Republicans can't allow themselves to be TARPed again."

The revolt against his tax pledge isn't a major worry to him, because the media is inflating it by interviewing the same five or six elected officials over and over. However, Saxby Chambliss, senator from Georgia, backpedaled the pledge on Wednesday, because he "cares a lot more about American" than about Grover Norquist. That's an interesting way to put it, making it about the personal power and vanity of Norquist.

Norquist seems to think that he can keep almost all the GOP in line with a threat to primary those who falter. We shall see. I predict that Norquist won't have important sway. Many Republicans will break from their pledge. They may work out the math of who shoulders the burden of voting for a tax deal (those senators not facing reelection in 2014), and those who get the safe, anti-tax vote. But a tax increase of some sort will pass.

Single-issue boogie men like Grover Norquist will pass away. The problems in this country are too complex and too pressing to let single-issue pressure groups call the shots. It's not just my view--that's the election result. Norquist is doomed already. He's still screaming as he hangs on by his fingernails, but his grip is failing, and he's going to fall... very, very soon.

Image: newser.com

Extras. Comments about Chambliss in the Atlanta Journal are mostly negative, in  these two veins: he's a sell-out, or too-little-too-late. Here's the most perceptive: "Grover will find an obedient robot to run against Chambliss. Georgia’s voters are predominantly morons who will do as Fox News and Rush tell them to do." Perhaps Chambliss will be retiring in 2014, and that's why he's making the sacrifice now that relieves pressure on other GOP senators.

The Weekly Standard is trying to line up challengers already. Whoa, I'm scared... I interpret this as maneuvering in the conservative media. Some outlets are trying to keep the pressure on. Others will give GOP officials an escape hatch. That's another prediction. I'll watch for how it plays out in the conservative media.

Short: Gaza ceasefire

I think about foreign issues fairly often, but I don't write about them because my lack of background makes my opinions as worthwhile as, um, the proverbial bucket of warm spit.

That said, perhaps I should refrain now. However, I want to share a few sources from my research into the lead-up to the recent upsurge in fighting:

• A timeline from the Jerusalem Post
• A timeline from the site Electronic Intifada
• A timeline of rockets fired from Gaza

This information confirmed one thing I already knew--there are frequently rockets shot from Gaza into Israel. I don't particularly want to argue whether they are justified or not. I also learned something that I hadn't heard or read before--Israel broke the most recent truce on November 8.

Maybe with four more years of Obama, there will be the impetus for the Israelis to seriously negotiate. Maybe. I won't hold my breath for that possibility.

[No extra picture of destruction needed.]

For posterity: Obama Claus

"Sorry but Rush had it right. This was an election where Mitt Romney was running against Santa and there are too many moochers out there that are selfish greedy people who were perfectly happy to vote for the rat-eared bastard so long as they got their special gift from Santa affirmed- be it free contraception, no cuts in expensive entitlement programs, the facade of legitimacy for sodomy, the promise of free citizenship for illegals, or whatever else the rat-eared wonder was able to pull out of his gift bag for a bunch of people that contribute nothing to society." -- HotAir comment

The other Santa theory (the complete one) here.