A cut of about 4% for most people
We're probably losing the Social Security 2% tax holiday anyway, so the end of the Bush tax cuts means an extra 2% loss for most of us. That's not as bad as I feared.
Worse will be the job losses if we tip into recession. I'd like to avoid that if we can. The most plausible way is to minimize the cuts for the lower and middle class --preferably just the 2% paycheck cut from reinstating the full Social Security tax.
The effect on the upper income earners... I don't know what it will do to the economy. I'm curious to find out, but also a bit fearful.
Readable numbers from MarketWatch.
More numbers, still fairly readable, from Yahoo News.
Scenarios from BankRate, including which pieces will hurt different groups the most.