I called bullshit on the idea that there are a lot of Obama switchers earlier. Here's a great example of how rare they are.
Fox News wanted a young Obama supporter who is also a college graduate having trouble finding a job and therefore is now an ardent Romney supporter. Watch what happens when Fox gets punked by a supposed average representative of this demographic. Hat tip - Atlantic Wire.
Update 7/8/13. To all the French and Italians who started viewing this in the past month, please tell me--where did you hear about this post, why is it popular there, and what do you think? [Friendly comment policy, you can be anonymous, and no word puzzle at the end.]
2 comments:
MP,
I am in complete agreement with your conclusion. Many people who say they voted for Obama in 2008, but are voting for Romney this time, are probably either fibbing or have bad memories. I would go so far as to suggest that if the 2008 election were held today, Obama would win by 12 points (not 6.5) if people's stated votes now were applied.
Sure, there are some people who honestly voted for Obama in 2008 and will vote for Romney in 2012. Hundreds of thousands, probably. There are also people who voted for McCain in 2008 and will vote for Obama this time (see: Ohio), but the net is probably not a very large difference, likely favoring Romney.
But apply 2012 demographics versu 2008 and in the end the difference in result will not likely be so different from 2008 because 95% of the people who voted for Obama in 2008 will vote for him again in 2012, barring some major events that would change their minds.
I suspect the "disappointed Obama voter" cohort is shrinking as we get closer to actually having to make a decision, ahd Romney's not doing much to win them over.
@Anon,
I did hear a credible Obama switcher on NPR coverage of a Romney rally in VA a week ago. Her opinion boiled down to an unethusiatic "Obama didn't work, so what else can we do?"
Thanks for the tip about Ohio. I will pay attention and silently thank you if you're right.
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